AZ (R) Primary: McSally +2 in 3-way race (ABC15/OHPI 1/9 poll)

[Harlow]

McSally 31%
Arpaio 29%
Ward 25%

https://www.abc15.com/news/state/poll-joe-arpaio-in-dead-heat-with-martha-mcsally-in-gop-race-for-us-senate-seat-in-arizona

Article includes this tidbit:

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[Holmes]

Not good enough for McSally. If both Ward and Arpaio stay in the race, one of them will consolidate support and win. If either one drops out (or switches seats?) well... McSally loses big time.

[MT Treasurer]

Even if McSally wins the primary, Republicans are only going to hold this seat if 2018 is another good midterm for them. Lean D with McSally/Ward, Likely/Safe D with Arpaio.

[Holmes]

Not good enough for McSally. If both Ward and Arpaio stay in the race, one of them will consolidate support and win. If either one drops out, well... McSally loses big time.

Kelli Ward seems to have enough of a liking for Arpaio to switch to the McCain seat when that opens up.

Maybe, but it barely matters in the end. Ward wasn't able to primary sitting incumbent McCain but maybe she could primary some rando sitting appointed incumbent.

[Webnicz]

This is very weak for McSally, especially once Ward support starts funneling over to Arpaio

[Webnicz]

Not good enough for McSally. If both Ward and Arpaio stay in the race, one of them will consolidate support and win. If either one drops out (or switches seats?) well... McSally loses big time.

[MAINEiac4434]

She's going to lose. If she's only +2 then it's on name recognition alone and she probably can't move base voters like the other two.

She's going to need to go negative on Ward and Arpaio, and if she scrapes her way to nomination that'll turn off their voters and make them protest vote or stay home.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Please dear god let Arpaio and Ward stay in at the same time.

Do yall really have to make a sh!t show of every race now since Trump? Why can't we have a normal election again with just a generic R for once?!

[Ronnie]

Please dear god let Arpaio and Ward stay in at the same time.

Do yall really have to make a sh!t show of every race now since Trump? Why can't we have a normal election again with just a generic R for once?!

Does it really have to be said?  Candidates like Arpaio and Ward are turning into the generic Rs.  When a so-called establishment Republican can only manage to get 30% of the total vote, they're not so generic anymore.

[Cactus Jack]

Please dear god let Arpaio and Ward stay in at the same time.

Won't make any difference. I thought Ward had the nomination locked up with or without Arpaio, but if this poll is true, her voters are going to start migrating to Nazi Joe and McSally's ceiling will stay in the mid-low 30s. She has absolutely no political goodwill any more, with Republicans or Democrats of any stripe.

[Roronoa D. Law]

If Arpaio or Ward wins I bet Arizona will start having runoffs.

[Devout Centrist]

Remember folks, Flake the mainstream conservative won by three points while Romney won Arizona by 9. McSally isn’t a great nominee, either. The hype over her is really odd.

[BudgieForce]

Jesus Christ Republicans, did you learn nothing from Alabama. Or Delaware, or Missouri or Indiana.

[BudgieForce]

For the record, if they both stay in, McSally will end up winning. That is why I’m happy, because of Martha McSally getting closer to becoming a Senator.

I wouldn't take that bet with a MoE lead. Republican primary voters have shown they prefer crazy and unelectable over moderate.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Honestly, Sinema is probably ecstatic about this poll.

[IceSpear]

Sheriff Joe surges 29 points in 2 days!

[Cactus Jack]

For the record, if they both stay in, McSally will end up winning. That is why I’m happy, because of Martha McSally getting closer to becoming a Senator.

Even if McSally wins the primary, which she won't, she'll never win the GE. She's even worse than Flake as a candidate.

[Webnicz]

For the record, if they both stay in, McSally will end up winning. That is why I’m happy, because of Martha McSally getting closer to becoming a Senator.

Even if McSally wins the primary, which she won't, she'll never win the GE. She's even worse than Flake as a candidate.

^^^^



If Flake was not able to win re election as a pro McConnell candidate, McSally for sure won’t be able too as someone who, might I remind everyone, is completely unknown in the Phoenix market, a problem Kirky faced in ‘16. She’s basically a nobody.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Sinema is obviously favored no matter who the nominee is. But if Arpaio is the nominee then Kyrsten is near-certain to win. Joe is not going to win Maricopa county.

[King Cobra]

Sinema is going to win by double digits. This primary is irrelevant.

[IceSpear]

Sinema is going to win by double digits. This primary is irrelevant.

Hot take.

[Cactus Jack]

Sinema is going to win by double digits. This primary is irrelevant.

Hot take.

If it really turns out to be Sinema vs. Arpaio, the take becomes quite a bit less hot. I wouldn't be surprised if that race gave us a margin something like 55-39-6.

[IceSpear]

Sinema is going to win by double digits. This primary is irrelevant.

Hot take.

If it really turns out to be Sinema vs. Arpaio, the take becomes quite a bit less hot. I wouldn't be surprised if that race gave us a margin something like 55-39-6.

Yeah I wouldn't be particularly surprised if she beat Arpaio by double digits either, but that poster said so in the context of the primary not mattering, meaning they also think she'd beat McSally by double digits.

[Cactus Jack]

Sinema is going to win by double digits. This primary is irrelevant.

Hot take.

If it really turns out to be Sinema vs. Arpaio, the take becomes quite a bit less hot. I wouldn't be surprised if that race gave us a margin something like 55-39-6.

Yeah I wouldn't be particularly surprised if she beat Arpaio by double digits either, but that poster said so in the context of the primary not mattering, meaning they also think she'd beat McSally by double digits.

Okay, fair enough. McSally is a pathetic candidate, but not that pathetic.