AZ-SEN 2018: Sinema Paradiso

[Figueira]

I can empathize--I can't believe they called MA-gov for Baker when the town of New Ashford hasn't even reported yet. New Ashford voted heavily for Clinton and Coakley.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Sinema lead updated to 9,600 as of 8:15 PM EST.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When should we know the winner?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Greenlee County, Arizona used to be more swingy, maybe even Democratic leaning.

But that was a very long time ago. The last time a Democrat won it was in 1996 with Bill Clinton and at that time the Republican/conservative vote was divided between Dole and Perot.

Both Mondale and McGovern won it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/status/1060702412963569664

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Laura Ingraham sticking a fork in McSally-

https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/status/1060702412963569664

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When should we know the winner?

IMHO I think it will be tomorrow.

Thanks.

[AndyHogan14]

Rosen and Sinema winning (which looks likely now), helps soften the losses in the Senate. Nevada has officially joined the left coast with CA, OR, WA, and HI and hopefully Arizona follows suit soon.

[Person Man]

I'm still angry about the 'tards down here, but I concede that we have won the election now.

[UWS]

Even then, only 87 % of the vote is reported in the Greenlee County and is strongly Republican and Trump won it by 24 percentage points in 2016.

Look at the number of votes it casts. There's like 50 people living there, lol.

Nope, 9455 live in this county.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenlee_County,_Arizona

Are you high?

It's obvious you haven't look on this link in order to see the obvious facts.

Obvious facts huh... okay Mr. Factoids, I have a question for you.

Why do you think it is the case that Dane county has over 500,000 people in it, but only about 300,000 vote when turnout is almost at 90%? Let me know when you have an answer, and we can talk about your wonderful Greenlee County analysis.

Because the Dane County is already safe blue and so there are some people who either don't feel to need to go to vote or don't have yet the required age to vote. But as we saw in the previous 2 midterm elections, the Republicans had a clear advantage over the Democrats in terms of electoral turnout, including in red counties. And that's exactly how they won the senate elections. So don't tell me about knowing what I'm talking about.

[UWS]

When should we know the winner?

IMHO I think it will be tomorrow.

[Bidenworth2020]

i have a bad felling about where the precinicts from maricopa came from? do we have any idea/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

i have a bad felling about where the precinicts from maricopa came from? do we have any idea/

They came from Phoenix.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, Sinema has this. FL and MS are where the real suspense is now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah, Sinema has this. FL and MS are where the real suspense is now.

There's no suspense in MS.

[libertpaulian]

Yeah, Sinema has this. FL and MS are where the real suspense is now.

There's no suspense in MS.

Well, the suspense of whether Espy loses by low-double digits or can manage to keep it to high-single digits.

[here2view]

I hope UWS reads up about Arizona voting information by the time Sinema is declared the winner.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If both Bill Nelson and Kyrsten Sinema end up winning, then the Senate probably leans decently towards the Democrats in 2020.

Both Donald Trump and Doug Jones (AL) are probably going to lose re-election. All other Democratic seats are probably going to stay. This would mean that Democrats need to flip 3 Senate seats to take the Senate.

Cory Gardner (CO) will probably lose, which would mean that Democrats simply need to flip 2 more seats.

At the next level, we have Susan Collins (ME), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), and an Arizona Special Election.

Gun to my head at this point, I think we beat Collins and Tillis, and we take the Arizona seat, but we lose against Ernst. This would be 1 more seat than we need.

[Dr. Arch]

Even then, only 87 % of the vote is reported in the Greenlee County and is strongly Republican and Trump won it by 24 percentage points in 2016.

Look at the number of votes it casts. There's like 50 people living there, lol.

Nope, 9455 live in this county.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenlee_County,_Arizona

Are you high?

It's obvious you haven't look on this link in order to see the obvious facts.

Obvious facts huh... okay Mr. Factoids, I have a question for you.

Why do you think it is the case that Dane county has over 500,000 people in it, but only about 300,000 vote when turnout is almost at 90%? Let me know when you have an answer, and we can talk about your wonderful Greenlee County analysis.

Because the Dane County is already safe blue and so there are some people who either don't feel to need to go to vote or don't have yet the required age to vote. But as we saw in the previous 2 midterm elections, the Republicans had a clear advantage over the Democrats in terms of electoral turnout, including in red counties. And that's exactly how they won the senate elections. So don't tell me about knowing what I'm talking about.

WRONG

Because there are many people who can't vote: children/teenagers (not just these), felons, undocumented, etc. who do count towards population

So I will now tell you that you don't know what you're talking about.

Case closed

[IceSpear]

Yeah, Sinema has this. FL and MS are where the real suspense is now.

There's no suspense in MS.

Nice rhyme!

[lfromnj]

I know MS is safe R but I have a feeling Espy might have a narrowish margin in single digits coz he probably has dominated the air waves.

[Figueira]

The problem with MS is that even if we win it's a two-year loan which doesn't help us much in 2020 (though if I concede that if Espy somehow beats CHS then he probably has at least some chance as an incumbent).

[UWS]

Even then, only 87 % of the vote is reported in the Greenlee County and is strongly Republican and Trump won it by 24 percentage points in 2016.

Look at the number of votes it casts. There's like 50 people living there, lol.

Nope, 9455 live in this county.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenlee_County,_Arizona

Are you high?

It's obvious you haven't look on this link in order to see the obvious facts.

Obvious facts huh... okay Mr. Factoids, I have a question for you.

Why do you think it is the case that Dane county has over 500,000 people in it, but only about 300,000 vote when turnout is almost at 90%? Let me know when you have an answer, and we can talk about your wonderful Greenlee County analysis.

Because the Dane County is already safe blue and so there are some people who either don't feel to need to go to vote or don't have yet the required age to vote. But as we saw in the previous 2 midterm elections, the Republicans had a clear advantage over the Democrats in terms of electoral turnout, including in red counties. And that's exactly how they won the senate elections. So don't tell me about knowing what I'm talking about.

WRONG

Because there are many people who can't vote: children/teenagers (not just these), felons, undocumented, etc. who do count towards population

So I will now tell you that you don't know what you're talking about.

Case closed

Absolutely wrong. I know exactly what I'm talking about. And if I really didn't, why is this that your party lost 3 seats and that the Republicans won the senate election very bigly by winning 3 net gains? I have said from the very beginning that there were children and teenagers in the population that's what I meant about people who don't have yet the required age to be eligible to vote. In all evidence, you're not even reading my posts, you're not even listening to me and that's why you repeated a part of my argument. So you are the one who doesn't know what you're talking about.

[UWS]

Yeah, Sinema has this. FL and MS are where the real suspense is now.

MS? Unless you just mean that is because there will be a run off, I have strong doubt that there is real suspense there. Hyde-Smith is leading in the run off polls by over 10 points and if you combine her electoral numbers with McDaniel's it would make approximately 58 % of the vote.

[Dr. Arch]

Even then, only 87 % of the vote is reported in the Greenlee County and is strongly Republican and Trump won it by 24 percentage points in 2016.

Look at the number of votes it casts. There's like 50 people living there, lol.

Nope, 9455 live in this county.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenlee_County,_Arizona

Are you high?

It's obvious you haven't look on this link in order to see the obvious facts.

Obvious facts huh... okay Mr. Factoids, I have a question for you.

Why do you think it is the case that Dane county has over 500,000 people in it, but only about 300,000 vote when turnout is almost at 90%? Let me know when you have an answer, and we can talk about your wonderful Greenlee County analysis.

Because the Dane County is already safe blue and so there are some people who either don't feel to need to go to vote or don't have yet the required age to vote. But as we saw in the previous 2 midterm elections, the Republicans had a clear advantage over the Democrats in terms of electoral turnout, including in red counties. And that's exactly how they won the senate elections. So don't tell me about knowing what I'm talking about.

WRONG

Because there are many people who can't vote: children/teenagers (not just these), felons, undocumented, etc. who do count towards population

So I will now tell you that you don't know what you're talking about.

Case closed

Absolutely wrong. I know exactly what I'm talking about. If I really didn't, why is this that the Republicans won the senate election very bigly by winning 3 net gains? I have said from the very beginning that there were children and teenagers in the population that's what I meant about people who don't have yet the required age to be eligible to vote. In all evidence, you're not even reading my posts, you're not even listening to me and that's why you repeated a part of my argument. So you are the one who doesn't know what you're talking about.

See the bolded part acknowledging what you said. You just keep landing eggs on your face and claiming you landed them on me. Keep 'em coming.

You don't seem to understand just how many people of the total population fall into those other categories. You can't cite population estimates on WIKIPEDIA as evidence of more potential votes in a particular election.

Leave that garbage at the door.