Election 2020: Trump vs Oprah

[libertpaulian]

Apparently, Oprah gave some rousing speech last night that's caused the Twitterverse to make #Oprah2020 go viral.

Let's assume she does run.  Who does she pick as her running mate?  What is the outcome of the election?  Discuss with maps.

Here are my thoughts:

Oprah Winfrey/Seth Moulton- 385
Donald Trump/Mike Pence- 153

She wins with Obama's 2008 map minus NE-02.  From Trump's 2016 map, she picks up MI, PA, WI, OH, IN, IA, GA, NC, FL, and AZ by either winning among or getting just enough of some combination of the following:

-African-American turnout, ESPECIALLY among women of this demographic
-Latino turnout that surpasses Hillary's, especially if DACA expires this year
-moderate white suburban women
-Millennial women
-LGBT

These would be enough to flip these states.

Indiana and Iowa are decided by a point, and New Hampshire is decided within less than a point.  Oklahoma and West Virginia are the only Southern states to go for Trump by 60% or more.  Wyoming still votes by party lines as usual.

EDIT: This is assuming Trump enters Election Day with an approval rating in the low 30s and having suffered a massive blue tsunami in 2018.

[The Govanah Jake]

Flip Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, and maybe Arizona and that would be my guess. Georgia and North Carolina are tossups but Oprah could raise Black turnout just enough to win.

[libertpaulian]

Flip Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, and maybe Arizona and that would be my guess. Georgia and North Carolina are tossups but Oprah could raise Black turnout just enough to win.

She'd drive up black turnout in Ohio, too, not to mention she'd appeal to the suburban soccer moms of Columbus and Cincy.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If she's winning by this margin she'd definitely win NE-2 as well, Clinton only lost it by about 2%.

[The Govanah Jake]

Flip Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, and maybe Arizona and that would be my guess. Georgia and North Carolina are tossups but Oprah could raise Black turnout just enough to win.

She'd drive up black turnout in Ohio, too, not to mention she'd appeal to the suburban soccer moms of Columbus and Cincy.
 
But she would still lose Clinton style in supposed Democratic strongholds like Northeast Ohio and be easily portrayed as a Hollywood Elitist by Republicans and lose big in the Rural areas. The strategy you mentioned above is the same one Clinton tried for and lost big as she ignored these (formerly) solid democratic voters

[bagelman]

278-260 GOP

Trump wins the PV and EV both, and both by tiny margins.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I'm iffy on Indiana voting for Oprah, but I could see it happening. However if that's happening, I think Texas would have flipped as well by that point

[NewYorkExpress]

If Oprah becomes the nominee, the only states she doesn't carry are southern states (except for North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Virginia and Texas), the Plains (except for Nebraska Statewide, CD-01 and CD-02), Utah, Idaho and Wyoming.

Oprah takes Alaska by less than 1% and loses West Virginia and Kentucky by less than 5%.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Oprah! (D-Wisc.) - 464 votes
Donald J. Trump (R-N.Y.) - 74 votes

She would steamroll him

[libertpaulian]

I wonder if Oprah's being on the ticket would help Doug Jones.

[libertpaulian]

I'm iffy on Indiana voting for Oprah, but I could see it happening. However if that's happening, I think Texas would have flipped as well by that point

I factor in the black vote in Indy and Gary, plus moderate white suburban women in Central Lake County as well as Hamilton County (Carmel/Fishers/Noblesville).