day 13: illinois

[muon2]

In IL the political experts view any statewide race in terms of the Democratic margin from Cook. Historically, the goal was to keep that margin below 300 K, and the rest of the state would generate a larger Republican margin to get a win. In 2004 the GOP did have a 300 K vote margin in all the state except Cook, but it came nowhere close.

To understand the changes, it's useful to look at the Cook County vote in Presidential races since 1980:

1980: Cook total 2163K, Dem margin 268K
1984: Cook total 2180K, Dem margin 057K
1988: Cook total 2026K, Dem margin 251K
1992: Cook total 2147K, Dem margin 644K
1996: Cook total 1727K, Dem margin 692K
2000: Cook total 1866K, Dem margin 746K
2004: Cook total 2049K, Dem margin 842K

Clearly there was a big change in 1992. If you consider that Perot got 282K votes in Cook that year, the Dem margin over the field was only slightly better than 1988, and indeed Clinton did not break 50% in IL that year. However, 1996 looks like those independent voters stayed home, and then moved ever more to the Dems in successive races.

Recent GOP presidential candidates have not had the appeal to some of the Cook voters that GOP candidates did before Clinton. As long as the Cook Dem margins remain as high as they are, it is extremely difficult to get enough GOP margin from the rest of the state to counter it.

[muon2]

the republicans must do better in the chicago-land suburbs in order to win illinois.

the gop did impriove in the suburbs in 04, but not well enough, obviously/

Going by the % Winning Margins, the Democrats did better in all suburban Chicago counties except for Will and McHenry. Will County is apparently having a population boom these days, gaining 100,000 people in 4 years. I wonder why, thats unusual outside the Sunbelt.

Will, McHenry, Kane, and Kendall and experiencing extremely rapid growth. Much of it comes from buyers from Cook, DuPage and Lake moving out to new subdivisions away from the perception of old, dense inner suburbs. Kendall is the second fastest growing county in the US. The big question for the GOP is how long do the transplants from older towns transform to the typical politics of the new areas.

Past trends have been from Dem to GOP as families become established in new areas. The voting patterns usually begin at the local level and reach the national vote some years later.

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Many parts of DuPage are aging and turning over to young starters. I wouldn't characterize the county as a Levittown, however. It is more like Westchester, NY than Nassau. It has a number of pockets of old money and history filled around with newer subdivisions. Like Westchester a few of the older communities had distinct blue-collar roots and have supported more immigrant populations in the last decade.

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The Democrat excess in Chicago for Kerry was 655K, and Cook was +842K for Kerry. Only the NW and SW parts of Cook had a Kerry deficit.

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