day 13: illinois

[nini2287]

discuss illinois.

does the GOP have any chance in this state which hasn't voted Republican since 1988?

[WalterMitty]

the republicans must do better in the chicago-land suburbs in order to win illinois.

the gop did impriove in the suburbs in 04, but not well enough, obviously/

[© tweed]

No one state is so swayed by the voting of it's city.  Not even in NY or CA; Chicago controls how Illinois votes.

[Joe Republic]

No one state is so swayed by the voting of it's city.  Not even in NY or CA; Chicago controls how Illinois votes.

I understand what you're saying, but Cook County has voted Democratic many more times than the entire state of Illinois has.

[Alcon]

The GOP needs to improve their standing in the outer Chicagoland suburbs, and that would be difficult to do without alienating their populist base in the rest of the state.

I think it's pretty much a lost cause.

[minionofmidas]

Republicans have been improving downstate and Dems in the Chicagoland suburbs over the past two decades or so...the Republicans' problem (apart from Chicago o/c) would appear to be the declining demographic importance of downstate.

[BobOMac2k2]

They say with in the next 20 years we might be a swing state.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

They say with in the next 20 years we might be a swing state.

How is it trending Republican? It voted for Ford.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Illinois is quite a strange state actually; it's got an odd tendency to swing all over the place without anything but an extremely broad pattern.

Any ideas why?

[Gabu]

Here's one funny thing I randomly found about Illinois:

Election 1:



Election 2:



Guess which time the Democrat won the state.

[minionofmidas]

There'sthree counties shifting Rep-to-Dem between the first and second maps, and Chicago is darker on the lower map, and the lower map is 2004, and the downstate is bleeding relevance, so obviously the second map.

[True Democrat]

There'sthree counties shifting Rep-to-Dem between the first and second maps, and Chicago is darker on the lower map, and the lower map is 2004, and the downstate is bleeding relevance, so obviously the second map.

I think you're wrong.  The top map is 2004, but the bottom map is 1988.

[minionofmidas]

There'sthree counties shifting Rep-to-Dem between the first and second maps, and Chicago is darker on the lower map, and the lower map is 2004, and the downstate is bleeding relevance, so obviously the second map.

I think you're wrong.  The top map is 2004, but the bottom map is 1988.

Yeah, I reversed the terms first and second, upper and lower throughout the post...how'd that happen?

[muon2]

In IL the political experts view any statewide race in terms of the Democratic margin from Cook. Historically, the goal was to keep that margin below 300 K, and the rest of the state would generate a larger Republican margin to get a win. In 2004 the GOP did have a 300 K vote margin in all the state except Cook, but it came nowhere close.

To understand the changes, it's useful to look at the Cook County vote in Presidential races since 1980:

1980: Cook total 2163K, Dem margin 268K
1984: Cook total 2180K, Dem margin 057K
1988: Cook total 2026K, Dem margin 251K
1992: Cook total 2147K, Dem margin 644K
1996: Cook total 1727K, Dem margin 692K
2000: Cook total 1866K, Dem margin 746K
2004: Cook total 2049K, Dem margin 842K

Clearly there was a big change in 1992. If you consider that Perot got 282K votes in Cook that year, the Dem margin over the field was only slightly better than 1988, and indeed Clinton did not break 50% in IL that year. However, 1996 looks like those independent voters stayed home, and then moved ever more to the Dems in successive races.

Recent GOP presidential candidates have not had the appeal to some of the Cook voters that GOP candidates did before Clinton. As long as the Cook Dem margins remain as high as they are, it is extremely difficult to get enough GOP margin from the rest of the state to counter it.

[nclib]

An interesting fact about Illinois is that it is the only state to swing Democratic against the national average in every presidential election since 1976.

[Cubby]

the republicans must do better in the chicago-land suburbs in order to win illinois.

the gop did impriove in the suburbs in 04, but not well enough, obviously/

Going by the % Winning Margins, the Democrats did better in all suburban Chicago counties except for Will and McHenry. Will County is apparently having a population boom these days, gaining 100,000 people in 4 years. I wonder why, thats unusual outside the Sunbelt.

The Dems did slightly better in Kendall, Kane and Lake. The big surprise was the noticable improvement in DuPage County, which to me always seems like a Levittown-type place of all suburbs, any guesses why we'd do better there?

It would be interesting if there was a chart of how Cook County minus the city of Chicago voted in past elections. It would probably tilt towards the GOP but these days not by much.

[muon2]

the republicans must do better in the chicago-land suburbs in order to win illinois.

the gop did impriove in the suburbs in 04, but not well enough, obviously/

Going by the % Winning Margins, the Democrats did better in all suburban Chicago counties except for Will and McHenry. Will County is apparently having a population boom these days, gaining 100,000 people in 4 years. I wonder why, thats unusual outside the Sunbelt.

Will, McHenry, Kane, and Kendall and experiencing extremely rapid growth. Much of it comes from buyers from Cook, DuPage and Lake moving out to new subdivisions away from the perception of old, dense inner suburbs. Kendall is the second fastest growing county in the US. The big question for the GOP is how long do the transplants from older towns transform to the typical politics of the new areas.

Past trends have been from Dem to GOP as families become established in new areas. The voting patterns usually begin at the local level and reach the national vote some years later.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Many parts of DuPage are aging and turning over to young starters. I wouldn't characterize the county as a Levittown, however. It is more like Westchester, NY than Nassau. It has a number of pockets of old money and history filled around with newer subdivisions. Like Westchester a few of the older communities had distinct blue-collar roots and have supported more immigrant populations in the last decade.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Democrat excess in Chicago for Kerry was 655K, and Cook was +842K for Kerry. Only the NW and SW parts of Cook had a Kerry deficit.

[/quote]