PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Skill and Chance]

This is the heart of Trump country, not a district with tons of Republicans who reluctantly held their noses.  It's a bit like Republicans trying to take back the CA districts that flipped in 2006/08 in 2010.  By and large, it just didn't happen.

It shouldn't be representative of the national environment or the battle for House control.  Could be an early warning to those who think Manchin or Heitkamp are fine, though.

[Skill and Chance]

Lamb can win this if Trump's approval drops even 5% between now and the election.  As it is, I think it will be a bare bones Republican hold in what should be a safe district, sort of the reverse of what happened with PA-12 in 2010.

[Skill and Chance]

Conor is one of them, through the big donors and exclusive events, this gun grandstanding, his refusal to take strong stances on many issues, I have lost faith in him. Cerilli should have gotten the nom. Oh well. I don't want any of the three now. If I was a voting resident, I would not show up, and if I was forced to, I might just pick Saccone (probably not, still probably Lamb if I had to) to stand against these kinds of candidates.

You're a proud supporter of Joe Manchin.  Doesn't Lamb have to act a lot like Manchin to win this district?

[Skill and Chance]

The needle did not betray us in VA-Gov and AL-Sen.

Wasn't the problem in 2016 mostly about how hard some suburbs and small cities in Kentucky and Indiana swung to Clinton?  I remember it had Clinton up by 5ish nationwide when those were the only states reporting.  Obviously, that didn't replicate with similar sized counties elsewhere in the Midwest.

[Skill and Chance]

Supremely hottake:

- A Connor Lamb win does not mean that democrats will take the house.
- A Connor Lamb loss does not mean that democrats will not take the house.

Though I would argue that a Lamb win would make it significantly harder for Republicans to argue against the odds of a Democratic takeover.

This is an exceptional area, having such a Democratic heritage that it was both +20 Mondale in 1984 and +40 Trump in 2016.  A Lamb win would boost candidates like Ojeda and the Dems running in the Obama-Trump Upstate NY districts significantly, but it says next to nothing about e.g. the Romney-Clinton CDs. 

That having been said, if they are winning back this kind of seat, there is an all Midwest/Rust Belt path to a Dem House majority out there.