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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127524 times)
#Solid4096
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,321


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« on: January 19, 2018, 03:24:17 pm »

Bold prediction: if Lamb actually wins and manages to hold on until 2022 (a singularly long shot), he'll be a shoo-in to move up and face Toomey.

I disagree. There are better candidates to face Toomey.
Logged
#Solid4096
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,321


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2018, 03:49:49 pm »

I would rather win in a District where the Democrat actually counts as a vote to get Democrats in control of the speaker-ship after the midterms than a District where the Democrat is fine with forcing a power sharing agreement if the Democratic majority is narrow.
Logged
#Solid4096
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,321


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2018, 08:02:13 pm »


Dear god that ad looks like it was a Middle Elementary School Art Project ffs.



FTFY
Logged
#Solid4096
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,321


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2018, 08:31:07 pm »

That ad convinced me to vote for Rick Saccone

why are you joking about this?
Logged
#Solid4096
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,321


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2018, 06:04:46 pm »

Did Al Gore win PA-18 under current borders in 2000?
Logged
#Solid4096
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,321


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2018, 08:48:51 am »

Saccone is such an awful candidate lol. Would be hilarious if the GOP manages to sh*t the bed here too.


Trump will be bragging about how the Democratic party is now 0-6 in congressional races, even if Saccone wins by 1 point in a R+11 district.

Interesting how he doesn't include CA-34.

Probably because top 2 all Democratic Party races do not count to him?
Logged
#Solid4096
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,321


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2018, 10:02:42 pm »

I don't see why all the republicans are alarmed by Saccone. He seem like a decent candidate and decent human being, I of course support Lamb, but strategically wise I would give him and his campaign a B, I would give his decent human being rating about a B-, and I would rate his politics from my view as about a D. Not the best, but I don't see why the GOP is panicking.

That whole proudly torturing people gives him a significantly lower human being grade than B- in my book.

Not really a biggie in my book there, most of those people deserve it.

Your use of the words "deserve" and, particularly, "most" are..... disheartening.
Logged
#Solid4096
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,321


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2018, 09:09:19 am »

Interesting note, but I read a tweet that the PA GOP moved Lamb's home into Doyle's PA-14 in their redraw map.

Wolf's going to veto it.

Hopefully.
Logged
#Solid4096
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,321


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2018, 08:00:31 pm »

Lean R. Saccone by 4%.
Logged
#Solid4096
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,321


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2018, 09:18:05 pm »

Lamb is an amazing politician. I am always impressed by people who aren't moderate that can convince voters that they are. (I.e. Sherrod Brown, Marco Rubio, Conor Lamb)

For me, this sort of thing is beyond frustrating because this is exactly what Larry Hogan (who is a very hardcore Conservative Republican), the Governor of the state I live in is doing.
Logged
#Solid4096
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,321


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #10 on: February 19, 2018, 07:54:19 pm »

I still think this race is Lean R, but I am revising my estimate to Saccone winning 50-49.
Logged
#Solid4096
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,321


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #11 on: March 05, 2018, 04:09:08 pm »

Lean R

At this point, I think Saccone wins narrowly. About 0.5% margin.
Logged
#Solid4096
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,321


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #12 on: March 05, 2018, 04:19:15 pm »

Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

I am going off of analysis of all the factors involved in the election.
Logged
#Solid4096
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,321


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #13 on: March 14, 2018, 02:29:57 pm »

I am pleasantly surprised by the outcome.
Logged
#Solid4096
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,321


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

« Reply #14 on: March 18, 2018, 06:33:00 pm »


Wow, Rothfus is done. I didn't realize that Mt. Lebanon and the surrounding area was nearly all in the new PA-17; Lamb should be a lock to win.

Both Romney and Trump won that District overall. Lamb is favored but not a lock.
Logged
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