PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.

But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

Erm, this seat was won by Romney by around 17pts and Murphy by 28pts in 2012. And all those guys you listed did just fine. Hell, Murphy even won it by over 28pts in 2008, IMHO, very little correlation. In this part of the country, a lot of elections are settled by name rec, personality, and populism. That's why you see things like Capito, McKinley, and Manchin (won both those districts heavily), all winning their districts by big margins despite being very different, and on opposite parties. Name brand matters, correlations, especially in Appalachia are hard to draw. It is a very flexible region. Saccone only at 12+ (which is arguable, it's only 1 poll) is actually a really sh!tty result for the GOP. And if we were to draw correlations (again, not a fan of that), it's definitely not something to be celebrating for the GOP.

Not to even mention the ginormous cash advantage Saccone has over Lamb right now. If Saccone 12+ holds up (again just one poll), that is quite a crappy result for the GOP.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.

But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.

Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since it’s WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didn’t vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

Trump campaigning against Manchin could hurt, but it could do near nothing, as seen in AL. It's a wild card.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

We still have long time to go and keep in mind this is still vintage Gravis people. Plus, the assumption that Manchin is supposedly in trouble due to this is silly.

This. Manchin has also easily barnstormed reelection when the GOP held well over double the lead this poll shows now in this district, this sh!t is simply not connected, nice try though!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Murphy’s closest race was in 2006, a Democrat wave election.   He was also accused of illegally using District office employees to work in his campaign .  He won 58% to 42%.  Last year Trump won 58.1% to 38.5%.  So, is the bench mark for Saccone not 58%?    In that case right now Saccone is 12% short of 58% and Lamb is 8% short of 42%.  Saccone is also getting 14% of Democrats.

By the way In 2014 Corbett beat Wolf 54.9 to 45.1.  Wolf could be as big a drag as Trump.  Even in 2012 Obama lost 57.9 % to 41% and Casey lost 53.4% to 44.

I am not saying Lamb cannot climb the hill.  But it will not be easy. Even in a flood the GOP will not lose every seat

Also, if Saccone wins, that still does mean there will not be a wave.  I would suggest my Democrat friends here not place a lot of emotional energy in this race. 

Very good post, actually I am surprised, good job. I'd say the Republican benchmark should be about 56%. Anything lower than that would be embarrassing.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Maybe instead of Steyer wasting $$ buying books and pointless impeachment ads he could put his money to good use. And where is the DCCC/DNC?

Please don't Ossoff this sh!t.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lamb released his first TV ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/953991405353013248

Freedom ad!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Oh heck yes!!! Saccone lead down!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Lamb's ad helped.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Saw a bunch of Conor Lamb signs today. No sign of Saccone. This guy is running a very quiet campaign.

Sounds like D+1 to me.

Please don't jinx it or get overconfident, you are a better poster than that.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This is what happens when you have no actual policy or issue to attack. You literally make up lies, and make a degrading and completely embarrassing ad about an American hero and Marine captain. For shame, for shame.

As others have said, Lamb should air this ad.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k

Oh my god. When did the GOP get so awful at ads? Like nursery rhymes? Are voters babies now?

That is a very generous overestimation of the American electorate my friend.

The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter. -Winston Churchill

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Quote if you logged into youtube just to dislike.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Is Saccone an establishment Republican or a polarizing Bannonite loon? I don't know very much about that region of PA.

More like Trumpist, but has a streak of Bannonite.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Is Saccone an establishment Republican or a polarizing Bannonite loon? I don't know very much about that region of PA.

The latter, with a side of being so lazy he legitimately fell asleep in the state legislature once.

So he's a kook who would fail to make the runoff if he ran in my House district (beaten by David Clifford (R-Long Beach, CA) for the second runoff spot)?

Definately, unless Ryan and co. buys him a spot.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Predictit has Saccone at 64c and Lamb at 40c.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3766/Which-party-will-win-the-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Pennsylvania's-18th-district

Predictit is worthless for analysis, I beg everyone to stop with it in analysis.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Did anyone else know that Rick Saccone's wife is asian?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't see why all the republicans are alarmed by Saccone. He seem like a decent candidate and decent human being, I of course support Lamb, but strategically wise I would give him and his campaign a B, I would give his decent human being rating about a B-, and I would rate his politics from my view as about a D. Not the best, but I don't see why the GOP is panicking.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't see why all the republicans are alarmed by Saccone. He seem like a decent candidate and decent human being, I of course support Lamb, but strategically wise I would give him and his campaign a B, I would give his decent human being rating about a B-, and I would rate his politics from my view as about a D. Not the best, but I don't see why the GOP is panicking.

That whole proudly torturing people gives him a significantly lower human being grade than B- in my book.

Not really a biggie in my book there, most of those people deserve it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Some terrorists and thugs just deserve punishment, it just does not work, so that's why torture should not be used, I mostly agree with this article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/8833108/Torture-is-not-wrong-it-just-doesnt-work-says-former-interrogator.html

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Words like "torture" and "thug" are a flashing yellow light for this thread to go off track from a discussion of this specific Congressional race to a very heated and emotional discussion of a marginally related topic. Let's try to stick to the specifics of this election and not get sidetracked into volatile issues.

I am sorry that I do not embody the characteristics of an sjw, and do not think enhanced interrogation technics are immoral, albeit ineffective, and that is a legitimate and arguable position. I argued it respectfully, and all, but I see that you may not be keen on civil discourse on legitimate issues, that's fine. I hope you find your peace too.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

He just warned people not to go off topic. It's not that serious.

He shows signs of possibly being bereft of the potential wherewithal to tolerate and allow viewpoints that differ from his own. It is quite disheartening, and I hope that he may have a change of heart in the future, and take a alternate perspective.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Words like "torture" and "thug" are a flashing yellow light for this thread to go off track from a discussion of this specific Congressional race to a very heated and emotional discussion of a marginally related topic. Let's try to stick to the specifics of this election and not get sidetracked into volatile issues.

Um, Brittain, you are literally one of the best mods around and always have been, but are you SERIOUSLY implying that one of the candidates in this race having committed torture and proudly defended it - - forgive me if I don't use pussy words like enhanced interrogation techniques - - is somehow NOT directly and inseparably related to that candidates Fitness for office? I mean come on, if we are going to discuss Donald Trump's fleecing the gullible with Trump University, shouldn't a congressional candidates Unapologetic use of torture on prisoners is more than a little relevant? That this is somehow a "distraction" to the thread rather than directly related?!?

Sorry, but you this one time simply wrong , wrong, wrong. While bagel and I obviously have strong disagreements about the use of torture , he is dead right that it's directly related to this election on which the thread is based

Thank you for standing for productive civil discourse on important issues and tolerance of other viewpoints. It is very refreshing in times such as these.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hey all,

I don't consider it the moderator's place to prevent discussion of relevant topics, so based on the response, I'm not going to stand in the way of discussions of torture as an issue if it is a point of disagreement between Saccone and Lamb.

My experience as a moderator is that discussions which get into enthusiasm for violence and vengeance against individuals, whether politicians, wannabe politicians, or classes of people, don't go well. This has happened with people like President Trump and Chelsea Manning and it just blows everything up and kills off other discussion. If we can avoid that fate and avoid overheated discussion, it won't get moderated.

Please sir, I humbly entreat you to travel the path of honesty. It is a fact that someone deleted two unreported posts of mine last evening on this thread on the issue, respectfully arguing and backing up with sources, the case that torture against bad people is not immoral, rather just ineffective.