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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 132328 times)
LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« on: January 07, 2018, 04:06:19 pm »
« edited: March 14, 2018, 08:09:57 pm by Brittain33 »

Election results:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2018, 04:25:25 pm »


That's going to change how Americans view Tax Reform?
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2018, 04:29:27 pm »

Right where Jones was two months before the election. Cool

Trump was not +15 in Alabama....
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2018, 04:43:38 pm »

With all due respect you are the biggest hack on this site limbo

I still believe the democrats are going to take back the house. I correctly pointed out that there were several "bad" toplines for Democrats in this poll, and also noted that it was only one poll from a not-stellar pollster, and that Casey had a good approval topline.

With all due respect, it's far more hackish and pathetic to launch a ad hominen attack on someone because they analyze a poll in a way not favorable to Democrats.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #4 on: January 07, 2018, 04:51:18 pm »

This is the heart of Trump country, not a district with tons of Republicans who reluctantly held their noses.  It's a bit like Republicans trying to take back the CA districts that flipped in 2006/08 in 2010.  By and large, it just didn't happen.

It shouldn't be representative of the national environment or the battle for House control.  Could be an early warning to those who think Manchin or Heitkamp are fine, though.

This is a good point. Appalachian Demosaurs could still love the Tax Reform (and Trump), but we can't know if that applies to the rural and midwestern democrats, like those in IA-01 and the upstate NY districts. All though Appalachia and the rural midwest both shifted R heavily in 2016, that doesn't necessarily mean that they will react the same way to Trump.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #5 on: January 07, 2018, 05:34:36 pm »

The topline seems OK but I'm skeptical about Trump's approval numbers.
The guy couldn't even break 50 at Alabama and he is at +15 here?

He has risen significantly in the 538 and rcp aggregator since the Alabama election.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2018, 06:10:53 pm »

Iím quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Trump is unpopular in PA, you know. This is a poll of a heavily Republican district that he won by 20 points.

Trump is almost certainly unpopular in Pennsylvania. Because of that, I doubt that Trump could go into Pennyslvania and defeat Casey, no matter how much he would attack him.

However, in a blue-collar-ish district that he won by 20 points, his approval rating is +15. That indicates with near 100% certainty that Trump is popular in West Virginia, most likely very popular. Greedo's point was that if Trump spent a lot of energy and time into attacking Joe Manchin, he could leverage that popularity to deliver the Republican the senate seat.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #7 on: January 07, 2018, 06:12:52 pm »

The biggest thing in this poll is the tax reform approval honestly. This fits with a recent national Gallup poll showing it was at 40% approval (and around -5 overall), indicating that the bill is in fact getting more popular. We will see whether that continues or if it just ends up being popular with Rs and no one else.

I trolled about Tax Reform constantly, suggesting a "huge" Tax Reform Bump which didn't really happen.

But I was also ridiculed for suggesting that the bonuses from major companies and stripping of all the unpopular elements could make the tax bill more popular, and I have no doubt in my mind that the bill has gotten more popular since the height of its unpopularity.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #8 on: January 07, 2018, 06:14:25 pm »

But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

I would have thought that after Alabama, you'd realize that Trump's influence is actually a lot more limited than previously thought. Especially in states where he is unpopular (such as PA, and probably OH). I also doubt Trump blabbing all night on a stage in West Virginia would topple Manchin.

I really disagree with this.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #9 on: January 07, 2018, 06:44:35 pm »

But Iím saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

I would have thought that after Alabama, you'd realize that Trump's influence is actually a lot more limited than previously thought. Especially in states where he is unpopular (such as PA, and probably OH). I also doubt Trump blabbing all night on a stage in West Virginia would topple Manchin.
I really disagree with this.
Just look at how well it worked for Luther Strange. Are you high?

I wish.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2018, 11:52:21 pm »

I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.

It's also possible that they want a big win considering their embarrassing string of losses since Virginia. A good margin for Saccone could be trumpeted by the GOP as counter-evidence to the wave.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2018, 01:08:37 pm »

I wonder if they really just want a big win for Saccone to push back against the blue-wave narrative and underperformance in special elections. Because polling (both national and district) shows that Saccone should win easily.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #12 on: January 22, 2018, 03:52:23 pm »

Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #13 on: January 22, 2018, 04:04:07 pm »

Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol

Lol, just as you say that....


https://twitter.com/chrisjdmartin/status/955543307639123971


NRCC guy frantically tries to dispel the poll.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2018, 11:58:08 pm »

Quote if you logged into youtube just to dislike.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #15 on: February 01, 2018, 09:47:06 pm »

It's Alabama all over again

Quote
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How is Trump going to spin a loss in PA-18? Remember what he said when Gillespie lost? 'Ed worked hard, but he didn't embrace me. If you embrace Trump, we will win a massive landslide in November'. What the hell is he going to say about a sycophant like Saccone loosing?

Saccone is going to win easily.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #16 on: February 13, 2018, 10:23:46 am »

DCCC isn't making another buy. Nothing suggest that Ds view this race as competitive.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #17 on: February 14, 2018, 03:52:46 pm »

How has Monmouth been this cycle? I'm forgetting.

They had Gillespie +1 than Northam +2 in the final few weeks of VA-Gov. Fail.

Their Alabama poll was very good, with a 46-46 tie at a 2017 electorate and 48-45 Jones in a Democratic turnout surge.

They had Murphy +14 in NJ, very well done.

Overall good, and I loved their turnout model idea in Alabama.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #18 on: February 15, 2018, 02:31:21 pm »


And Linda Belcher. The New Hope.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #19 on: February 15, 2018, 06:14:07 pm »

Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyerís $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.

This makes me think internal polling doesn't have the race as close as Monmouth pegged it at. I'm still optimistic, but idk. Trump's approval and the generic ballot in that poll can't exist in the same universe as the generic ballot polling and approval rating trend we're seeing right now. Unless there is an absolutely massive turnout differential.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #20 on: February 16, 2018, 04:05:37 pm »

The only way that Lamb is hurt by his comments is when Nancy Smith, a 54 year old social worker from Arlington or San Francisco or Bethesda or Evanston or Belmont, who tweets #resist on twitter and goes to her local indivisible meetings every week, decides not to donate to him. It's a politically savvy position for his district. Not a politically savvy position for accumulating a massive amount of out-of-state donations, a la Jonny from Georgia.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #21 on: February 19, 2018, 12:58:13 pm »

See, Lamb is sucha. flip flopper, ridiculous.
Way to completely shatter any progress he made from that smart move he made in a tough district.

I would bet $1,000,000 that less than 2% of people actually voting in the special election will know that Lamb took this meeting, less than 1% will know what "Mom's demand action" is, less than 0.5% will have a negative opinion of them, and less than 0.01% will care. Not everybody is an atlas forum poster, dude.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #22 on: February 19, 2018, 01:27:38 pm »

Some of these posts remind me of the people who were writing Northam's campaign autopsy a week before the election.

Remember when a union left Fairfax out of their campaign literature?
That really killed his campaign.

Looking back, GOP operatives were extremely successful at getting MSM to concern-troll and hype every singe little "scandal" of the Northam campaign. There was the union flyer thing, the sanctuary cities "issue", Buena Vista Parade-gate, the Latino Victory ad.

It's legitimately crazy. There was day after day of frenzied media coverage of the truck ad, people calling it racist, pundits declaring it the downfall of Northam. Somehow everyone forgot that ED GILLESPIE HAD BEEN RUNNING RACIST ADS FOR THE PAST TWO MONTHS!

But Northam won in a landslide, so whatevs.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #23 on: February 19, 2018, 07:20:42 pm »

I'm watching the debate here: https://www.facebook.com/CBSPittsburgh/videos/10155616382643822/

Lamb is a very good speaker... I'll be disappointed if he loses. He has a very good message. Saccone is basically just Trump, Trump, Trump.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,897


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #24 on: February 25, 2018, 10:49:32 pm »

This is a robotic, defensive ad from Lamb: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gYEUHmTe68
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