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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127529 times)
Make America Malarkey Free Again
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,319
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

« on: January 25, 2018, 08:22:23 pm »


This is a pretty damning indictment of the NRCC, if you ask me.
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Make America Malarkey Free Again
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,319
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2018, 03:29:07 am »

Well, I'd like to think that I've learned lessons from both GA-06 and AL-SEN. This race is legitimately looking like a Toss-Up, and if more polls show Lamb ahead, I probably will give him the edge. However, no one should be counting Saccone out, either. Watch this thread get derailed into pandemonium if the Gravis poll shows Saccone up by 1 or 2.
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Make America Malarkey Free Again
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,319
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

« Reply #2 on: March 11, 2018, 01:33:27 pm »


You mean like how newspaper endorsements were the end for Trump?
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Make America Malarkey Free Again
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,319
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2018, 02:23:53 pm »

Republicans may be playing the expectations game to an extent, but even so, why do they feel like they need to, unless they are legitimately worried about Lamb winning, and want to make it seem like it won’t be that big of a deal?
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Make America Malarkey Free Again
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,319
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2018, 06:48:55 pm »

Yeah, the value of this particular race is almost entirely symbolic.

That's the thing, though, it could suggest that something has changed in the electorate over the past year.
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Make America Malarkey Free Again
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,319
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2018, 08:29:33 pm »

Looking at the numbers, I think Lamb probably ekes out a win. Unless the Washington/Westmoreland votes remaining are much more Saccone friendly than what we have so far, he's probably not going to get enough to off-set Allegheny.
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Make America Malarkey Free Again
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,319
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2018, 08:58:01 pm »

I can't see Saccone netting more than 1,000 with the remaining Washington/Westmoreland votes, and there's still some Allegheny vote left to count. It probably goes to a recount, but Lamb should win, albeit in a squeaker.
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Make America Malarkey Free Again
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,319
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2018, 09:06:24 pm »

I think Saccone has this. Remaining precincts in Allegheny are only slightly pro-Lamb.

I'm going to put this in my signature if Lambs pulls this out, which I think he will.
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Make America Malarkey Free Again
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,319
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2018, 09:20:03 pm »

Saccone needs to win something like 65% of the remaining vote in Washington to pull ahead of Lamb. And that's not even factoring in the remaining vote in Allegheny. A real nail-biter, but I think I'm ready to say that Lamb has this. Congrats, PittsburghSteel!
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Make America Malarkey Free Again
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,319
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2018, 10:35:41 pm »

Out of curiosity, was Saccone ever ahead in the count? Not that it matters that much, I'm just curious, since I wasn't here earlier on.
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Make America Malarkey Free Again
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,319
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

« Reply #10 on: March 14, 2018, 06:58:11 pm »

Republicans really do love moving the goalposts. Funny how Lamb was Nancy's little pet back, and now he's basically a Republican? First, they thought he didn't stand a chance, then they spend millions to try and beat him, and now it doesn't matter that he won?
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