PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Oryxslayer]

Why doesnt NYT have Westmoreland precincts on the map?

Westmoreland didn't release their results in precicnt form tonight....so the only people with them are DDHQ who has people on the ground in the county.

[Oryxslayer]

DHQ image. The two remaining precincts are a small squarish one at the south end of the blue blob in the north-central, and the obvious Grey patch in the far east.

[Oryxslayer]

DHQ image. The two remaining precincts are a small squarish one at the south end of the blue blob in the north-central, and the obvious Grey patch in the far east.

Wait how did the precinct next to the blue blob vote in 16?

Probably for trump, but the blue blob itself is Latrobe which is Lamb territory, so it should be a Lamb precinct. The other is a Saccone precinct.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/973760834378878976

Done because the race is close. Get out your coffee folks, because you are in charge of this. I intend to be awake for tomorrow, will sleep soon.

[Oryxslayer]

Seeing that eastern blue nub in Eastern Washington County makes me think that removing the townships and boroughs from the along the Monongahela River probably prevented Lamb from winning by even more. Gerrymandering at work!

Yep, and there is more of Westmoreland in the district as a result. If the two south counties were whole, the district would be like R+9.4 instead of 11, I checked before the election. The gerrymander was drawn in 2011 because this region still was thought to elect dems, even though it was moving right. I commented earlier that this gerrymander might end up with its last revenge just as it was dying, guess it came close to that scenario.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/973767556191449089

[Oryxslayer]

CNN saying trump is on track to lose 118 house seats in 2018, beating fdr's 71 seat loss in 1942.

114 less R than this one. Some of those mind you have incumbents or poor dem candidates or actually will see reasonable turnout on the R side. So, it is kinda grandstanding/strawmen depending n which side to say dems win that much.

[Oryxslayer]

Project Vote Total with Absentee ballots:

Westmoreland: 1,808 absentee ballots (Saccone won by 14.7%) = Gain of 267 votes
Washington: 1,195 ballots (Saccone won 7.3%) = Gain of 88 votes.
Greene: 203 ballots (Saccone won by 16.6%) = Gain of 34 votes.

Total of 389 in absentee ballots.


With Lamb leading by 579 votes, Lamb is projected to by 190 votes.

The lastest dump included Westmoreland absentee. So only washington and greene

[Oryxslayer]

The same people claiming that Conor is a Republican and that his victory doesn't mean anything for November were calling him a "Pelosi Liberal" just yesterday...

What a time. Rip Hawking btw. So from what I hear there are only a few hundred provsionals and a few dozen military ballots left. Am I wrong, or is that about right?

Just Greene, and I'm not even sure about the military ballots, they could have been included in the provisional count. Now all we have is the potential recount, which is already going to be crazy since Lamb and Saccone are collecting signatures this week for different districts.

[Oryxslayer]

NYT now has Westmoreland precinct data.

[Oryxslayer]

Btw, who were the users saying I should eat crow and/or ban myself if Conor lost?

I light humor, I said you would have to eat crow since you were the really deep in the Lamb tank over the previous week. For the record, I think my final prediction was unexpectedly the closest, 50-50 odds of either candidate.

[Oryxslayer]

We finally gained a House seat today.

And we have a chance at another one next week.

Next special is in April, in perhaps the least dem-favorable one yet, excluding Utah.  Reasonable, not entirely sh**tty R, no dem DNA, large R PVI... Etc.

Unless you are implying that Lipinski is a R.

[Oryxslayer]

And that's it folks!
See you again in November.

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/976599949520588800

Is it me or that decided reference to last Tuesday's election was a passive-aggressive swipe for how long it took Saccone to concede?

At least Saccone did concede.  The same can’t be said for Roy Moore...

Since we are post-signing deadline, there is also a good incentive for the two to make ammends - there is a good chance both candidates will be neighbors in the 2019 congress.