PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 202723 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #50 on: March 13, 2018, 07:39:27 PM »
Quote from: Young Conservative on March 13, 2018, 07:38:47 PM
Early votes dump first. Makes sense Lamb would lead in these given the enthusiasm gap. Still a tossup. No clear winner or favorite.

There are very few early votes in PA.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #51 on: March 13, 2018, 07:48:51 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on March 13, 2018, 07:47:58 PM
Mmmm....these GOP years are gonna be so delish

Tears?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #52 on: March 13, 2018, 07:50:03 PM »
CNN just said that turnout in Allegheny was very high with long lines, and people still in line when the polls closed.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #53 on: March 13, 2018, 07:52:07 PM »
Quote from: Truvinny on March 13, 2018, 07:51:24 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on March 13, 2018, 07:50:03 PM
CNN just said that turnout in Allegheny was very high with long lines, and people still in line when the polls closed.

Can you still vote if you're in line when the polls close?

Yes.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #54 on: March 13, 2018, 07:52:50 PM »
Wasserman: The most GOP-heavy Allegheny precinct that's reported so far (Jefferson Hills) is only at 54.7% of its 2016 turnout, while most Dem-heavy precinct (Mt. Lebanon 5-7) is at 75.2% of its 2016 turnout.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #55 on: March 13, 2018, 07:54:53 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #56 on: March 13, 2018, 07:55:40 PM »
PA GOP op:

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #57 on: March 13, 2018, 08:11:02 PM »
Quote from: ProudModerate2 on March 13, 2018, 08:10:09 PM
Quote from: Cactus Jack on March 13, 2018, 08:03:04 PM
Quote from: libertpaulian on March 13, 2018, 08:02:10 PM
Was Roy Moore ever favored in the needle?

Multiple times. Right before the Montgomery-Birmingham vote dump right at the end, he was at +5.

Agree.
It wasn't until later in the result counting (like 60 to 70% counted) that the needle and other NYT tools started to show a swing towards Jones' direction.
(Correct me, if I am wrong with this. But I think that is how it went.)

That matches my recollection too.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #58 on: March 13, 2018, 08:25:26 PM »
Quote from: Badger on March 13, 2018, 08:24:17 PM
Quote from: Mumph on March 13, 2018, 08:23:08 PM
Quote from: Next Congressman Conor Lamb on March 13, 2018, 08:19:32 PM
Quote from: Badger on March 13, 2018, 08:18:34 PM
Quote from: 136or142 on March 13, 2018, 08:16:48 PM
The Republicans probably would be comfortably winning this had their convention not chosen Saccone.

And we would have won Colorado in Delaware if we hadn't nominated tea party crackpots, oh, and Nevada to. We would have won the popular vote if we had nominated Trump. But there seems to be an addiction my party to the farthest right extremist candidates.

That's the problem, I am part of the solution.
Badger I love you but come to the Democrats please

Don't do it badger we love you

It's good to be wanted. Smiley

Come to the independents.  A pox on both their houses. Smiley
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #59 on: March 13, 2018, 08:29:08 PM »
Quote from: TheBeardedOne on March 13, 2018, 08:28:11 PM
I’ve been wondering, why are Republican districts/states/counties/etc. on this site colored Blue and Democratic ones are Red?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/08/red-vs-blue-a-brief-history-of-how-we-use-political-colors/
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #60 on: March 13, 2018, 08:33:10 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #61 on: March 13, 2018, 08:35:50 PM »
Quote from: Badger on March 13, 2018, 08:35:16 PM
So, where is the big Westmoreland dump?

About 6 miles out of town on Route 3...

(sorry)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #62 on: March 13, 2018, 08:39:08 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #63 on: March 13, 2018, 08:41:40 PM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on March 13, 2018, 08:40:33 PM
Quote from: Mondale on March 13, 2018, 08:39:26 PM
Monomouth polling choked like Nate's model

Someone here mentioned a 3 point win for Lamb as a possibility, which would be in line with Monmouths polling results.

John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) has been projecting 51-48 Lamb for a while tonight.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #64 on: March 13, 2018, 08:43:53 PM »
Quote from: ProudModerate2 on March 13, 2018, 08:43:15 PM
I'm not sure about this election.
I think it's going to be close.
It's hard to read.

Yeah, it's going to be close.  But I think it would be better to be in Lamb's shoes at this point.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #65 on: March 13, 2018, 08:46:00 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #66 on: March 13, 2018, 08:48:16 PM »
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I almost hate to task this, but...what are the recount rules in PA?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #67 on: March 13, 2018, 08:51:35 PM »
Quote from: Gabor on March 13, 2018, 08:50:46 PM
Whichever way this race goes, it sure has been an interesting one to watch.

The thread title "Tossup Race" was right on the money.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #68 on: March 13, 2018, 08:53:54 PM »
DDHQ guy:

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #69 on: March 13, 2018, 08:57:43 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on March 13, 2018, 08:55:57 PM
This race is exactly why I think polls and models are junk

They're not junk; they're useful tools -- but no more than that.  The problem is people thinking they're exact predictors.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #70 on: March 13, 2018, 09:00:19 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #71 on: March 13, 2018, 09:02:17 PM »
CNN just reported that Allegheny absentee count is estimated to be complete around midnight.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #72 on: March 13, 2018, 09:03:01 PM »

Way too close.  I doubt we'll get a call until 100% of the returns are in.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #73 on: March 13, 2018, 09:07:44 PM »
Quote from: JFK on March 13, 2018, 09:05:54 PM
Not sure what to think at this point, but cautiously optimistic about Lamb??

I think Lamb is very slightly favored at this point, but it's far from in the bag for him.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #74 on: March 13, 2018, 09:08:34 PM »
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