PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/973727422322561024

[Oryxslayer]

So back to Lamb being slightly favored?

Cohn readjusted the model to account for Saccone overperforming in his own district.

Nah, he just explained why it was happening. Model adjuested itself.

[Oryxslayer]

Who's besting their NYt benchmarks where. 

[Oryxslayer]

So we aren't going to know the winner until tomorrow?

Just until 90+%

[Oryxslayer]

Uhhhhh.... DDHQ apparently has Westmoreland precinct info but different overall data

[Oryxslayer]

Looking at the numbers, I think Lamb probably ekes out a win. Unless the Washington/Westmoreland votes remaining are much more Saccone friendly than what we have so far, he's probably not going to get enough to off-set Allegheny.

Saccone still has some district in Washington.

[Oryxslayer]

hmm they turned off the needle

Thank you Westmoreland

[Oryxslayer]

So how was DDHQ able to get Westmoreland precinct data when the NYT wasn't? Bizarre.

DDHQ likes to have on the ground reports, so they probably have a guy in westmoreland county.

[Oryxslayer]

75% in Washington now. 14829 - 16569 - 244 Saccone

[Oryxslayer]

NYT is ahead everywhere, but this is handy to look inside Westmoreland.

[Oryxslayer]

and we are under 0.5% folks.

[Oryxslayer]

3% of Westmoreland
10% of washington
5% of allegheny

whats left

[Oryxslayer]

Lamb up to 0.6 now...

Whats left in allegheny is lamb territory. Washington is mixed but pro-Saccone. Westmoreland probs has like <5ish precncts left.

[Oryxslayer]

Some of the precincts in Alleghany are deep in Lamb blue, like a few in Bethel Park, in Whitehall, and S Fayette. Washington is still on the Sac train though.

[Oryxslayer]

18 out of 25 outside of allegheny, 7 inside...

[Oryxslayer]

More precincts! down to 22 left, all dropped from westmoreland. 49.9 - 49.5

[Oryxslayer]

15 precincts outside of Allegheny - mostly Washington, 7 inside.

[Oryxslayer]

close of of ddhq's Westmoreland.

[Oryxslayer]

how will the rest of Washington county vote god damnit??

Rep. The precincts out are certain about that. Its more about the odd hard lamb territory that is still out in Allegheny vs Washington

[Oryxslayer]

We got 2 Allegheny left. 1 Westmoreland. 9 Washington I believe the count stands.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/973749047168241664

Nate cohn expects a 541 Saccone net from the remaining precincts, puts this really close for Lamb.

[Oryxslayer]

Wow, I was very wrong about Peters Township. Thought it would net Saccone much more. Crow is being eaten.

Apparently it was the more liberal part of Peters. I expected Saccone to win by more, too. He dominated the rest of Peters.

That part of peters was in his old HD.

[Oryxslayer]

The last map Coleman posted. Thee unfilled precincts are probably among the two outstanding. Look to be in predominantly Republican areas.

There are also a couple near the blue central cluster...so on whats left

[Oryxslayer]

DDHQ says the last 2 Westmoreland precincts are:

Latrobe, 2nd ward
Ligonier (North Ligonier)

These and their absentees will report within the next hour.

Ligonier probably leans Saccone, and Latrobe Lamb. So, Saccone needs some absentees from the rest of the counties.

[Oryxslayer]

These are only the absentees sent out, not returned. Could be much fewer, which makes Saccone's margin for error much smaller.

This is also the numbers sent out...yeah I don't see Saccone pulling this back until we enter the black box of the expected recount. Even there, Dems dominate all the county boards so, hard to see any shenangians happening