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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127640 times)
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #375 on: February 15, 2018, 01:05:51 pm »

Com'on Lamb!!! You can do it!!!!
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #376 on: February 15, 2018, 01:07:42 pm »

At this point, if I had to say who would win, it would be Lamb.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #377 on: February 15, 2018, 01:09:31 pm »

Gotta love that we don't have to change the title
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« Reply #378 on: February 15, 2018, 01:16:15 pm »

Now we must ask ourselves whether this is Saccone blowing it because let's face it: he's an awful candidate, or it's because Lamb is a super strong candidate. I'm leaning towards it being a little bit of both.

It's pretty obvious that Lamb is no Ossoff.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #379 on: February 15, 2018, 01:16:22 pm »

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.
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« Reply #380 on: February 15, 2018, 01:18:57 pm »

This is just showing how godawful Morning Consult is. If Trump has a 46% approval rating in the state, his candidate would be running away with this. It's a southwestern CD for crying out loud. The poll clearly shows a lot of this is a backlash against Trump.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #381 on: February 15, 2018, 01:28:13 pm »

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.
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« Reply #382 on: February 15, 2018, 02:04:55 pm »

People like Conor Lamb give me so much hope for our party. I really want him to win.
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Mondale
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« Reply #383 on: February 15, 2018, 02:05:08 pm »

People like Conor Lamb give me so much hope for our party. I really want him to win.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #384 on: February 15, 2018, 02:15:16 pm »

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KingSweden
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« Reply #385 on: February 15, 2018, 02:24:53 pm »

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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #386 on: February 15, 2018, 02:31:21 pm »


And Linda Belcher. The New Hope.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #387 on: February 15, 2018, 02:31:46 pm »

Well...I can actually see Lamb winning by 3 or 4 points. I think Monmouth has been a little off in their recent polling.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #388 on: February 15, 2018, 03:18:28 pm »

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

The thing is, while I expect Saccone to win I think Ossoff would win in GA-6 if the election were held today.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #389 on: February 15, 2018, 03:32:11 pm »

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

The thing is, while I expect Saccone to win I think Ossoff would win in GA-6 if the election were held today.

I agree
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Everything Burns...
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« Reply #390 on: February 15, 2018, 03:49:12 pm »

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

The thing is, while I expect Saccone to win I think Ossoff would win in GA-6 if the election were held today.

I agree
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henster
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« Reply #391 on: February 15, 2018, 05:27:37 pm »

Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #392 on: February 15, 2018, 05:29:16 pm »

Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.
On the flip side the DCCC might be staying out on purpose so The GOP can't nationlize the race ala GA-06
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #393 on: February 15, 2018, 06:07:30 pm »

Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.
On the flip side the DCCC might be staying out on purpose so The GOP can't nationlize the race ala GA-06

An idea I've seen floated on Twitter is that the DCCC may be waiting to see what the final PA maps look like in a few days.  They might not want to invest a lot in trying to help Lamb win a seat that he'd be likely to lose in November (or on the flip side, might be an easier gain for the Democrats then).
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #394 on: February 15, 2018, 06:14:07 pm »

Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.

This makes me think internal polling doesn't have the race as close as Monmouth pegged it at. I'm still optimistic, but idk. Trump's approval and the generic ballot in that poll can't exist in the same universe as the generic ballot polling and approval rating trend we're seeing right now. Unless there is an absolutely massive turnout differential.
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Mondale
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« Reply #395 on: February 15, 2018, 08:28:17 pm »

Trump bails

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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #396 on: February 15, 2018, 09:33:51 pm »


Smart. He knows he's going to sink Saccone. His disapproval rating shouldn't be 48% in South Western PA.
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kyc0705
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« Reply #397 on: February 15, 2018, 09:42:26 pm »

I expect to see Saccone up 7. Everyone will immediately panic for absolutely no reason.

Considering that this is Atlas, your second sentence seems a tad redundant.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #398 on: February 15, 2018, 09:56:53 pm »

Saccone would be one of the better Republicans in congress, it would be tolerable.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #399 on: February 15, 2018, 10:00:17 pm »

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.
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