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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 127490 times)
IceSpear
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« Reply #150 on: January 22, 2018, 03:40:38 pm »

Saccone only up 3

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Meh, way too many undecideds. Obviously Lamb is going to get more than 38%. 48-45 would've been a lot more interesting.

Also, I highly doubt Trump is only at 49-47 approval in this district when he's at 40% nationally. And there's no way in hell that Wolf is more popular in the district than Toomey and on the same level as Trump. I'm calling junk poll.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #151 on: January 22, 2018, 03:43:34 pm »

Saccone only up 3

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No excuse for the DCCC not to get involved then.

Quietly, though. Overnationalization is what killed Ossoff, and if that happens here, in an anti establishment, populist district, the blowback could be worse.

They did it right in Alabama.
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#Solid4096
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« Reply #152 on: January 22, 2018, 03:49:49 pm »

I would rather win in a District where the Democrat actually counts as a vote to get Democrats in control of the speaker-ship after the midterms than a District where the Democrat is fine with forcing a power sharing agreement if the Democratic majority is narrow.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #153 on: January 22, 2018, 03:50:12 pm »

Oh heck yes!!! Saccone lead down!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #154 on: January 22, 2018, 03:50:48 pm »

I think Lamb's ad helped.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #155 on: January 22, 2018, 03:52:23 pm »

Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #156 on: January 22, 2018, 03:56:22 pm »

Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol
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Brittain33
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« Reply #157 on: January 22, 2018, 03:58:47 pm »

I would rather win in a District where the Democrat actually counts as a vote to get Democrats in control of the speaker-ship after the midterms than a District where the Democrat is fine with forcing a power sharing agreement if the Democratic majority is narrow.

Wouldn't it more likely that Pelosi steps down as Dem leader? If it's close, Tim Ryan and others will smell blood and go in for the kill.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #158 on: January 22, 2018, 04:04:07 pm »

Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol

Lol, just as you say that....


https://twitter.com/chrisjdmartin/status/955543307639123971


NRCC guy frantically tries to dispel the poll.
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kyc0705
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« Reply #159 on: January 22, 2018, 04:12:32 pm »


I'd like his lamb chop Pretty good ad
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Holmes
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« Reply #160 on: January 22, 2018, 04:23:14 pm »
« Edited: January 22, 2018, 04:27:50 pm by Holmes »

Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol

Lol, just as you say that....


https://twitter.com/chrisjdmartin/status/955543307639123971


NRCC guy frantically tries to dispel the poll.

It's weird that he brings up public polling when afaik Gravis is the only pollster who's released a public poll?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #161 on: January 22, 2018, 04:28:58 pm »

Well, well, well... we might have a real race here boys and girls.

Still think Lamb loses but itíll be closer than the PVI suggests it has any reason to be
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Holmes
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« Reply #162 on: January 22, 2018, 04:58:21 pm »

I wonder if a non-partisan map could actually make this district less competitive. Worth keeping an eye on because the special will be under current lines, so if Lamb does win...
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #163 on: January 22, 2018, 05:16:29 pm »

Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol

Lol, just as you say that....


https://twitter.com/chrisjdmartin/status/955543307639123971


NRCC guy frantically tries to dispel the poll.

It's weird that he brings up public polling when afaik Gravis is the only pollster who's released a public poll?

This guy looks like he just finished kindergarten.
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Mondale
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« Reply #164 on: January 22, 2018, 05:18:10 pm »

Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol

Lol, just as you say that....


https://twitter.com/chrisjdmartin/status/955543307639123971


NRCC guy frantically tries to dispel the poll.

It's weird that he brings up public polling when afaik Gravis is the only pollster who's released a public poll?

This guy looks like he just finished kindergarten.

Sounds like Roy Moore's type
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#Bidemings2020
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« Reply #165 on: January 22, 2018, 07:30:09 pm »

REALLY want Conor to win! My town is in PA12 and the redistricting will probably put us in PA18.
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OneJ
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« Reply #166 on: January 22, 2018, 08:32:38 pm »

Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol

Lol, just as you say that....


https://twitter.com/chrisjdmartin/status/955543307639123971


NRCC guy frantically tries to dispel the poll.

It's weird that he brings up public polling when afaik Gravis is the only pollster who's released a public poll?

This guy looks like he just finished kindergarten.

Sounds like Roy Moore's type
Didn't see that one coming.
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Holmes
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« Reply #167 on: January 22, 2018, 10:10:42 pm »

Lamb's got a new ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/955630664426119169

Has the Saccone campaign released anything yet?
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Arch
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« Reply #168 on: January 22, 2018, 10:14:00 pm »


This feels like another Doug Jones type candidate in the making (in terms of message and campaign effectiveness). Approve.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #169 on: January 22, 2018, 11:35:51 pm »


This feels like another Doug Jones type candidate in the making (in terms of message and campaign effectiveness). Approve.
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Mondale
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« Reply #170 on: January 23, 2018, 01:54:06 pm »

Another new ad by Lamb:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5hAlQ2cPQ0
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #171 on: January 23, 2018, 05:40:49 pm »

wow. great ad
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Ses
jk2020
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« Reply #172 on: January 24, 2018, 03:42:07 pm »

Wow, how did I miss this poll? +3?!?!
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#Bidemings2020
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« Reply #173 on: January 24, 2018, 06:38:14 pm »

Saw a bunch of Conor Lamb signs today. No sign of Saccone. This guy is running a very quiet campaign.
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Arch
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« Reply #174 on: January 24, 2018, 07:04:05 pm »

Saw a bunch of Conor Lamb signs today. No sign of Saccone. This guy is running a very quiet campaign.

Sounds like D+1 to me.
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