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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 130425 times)
Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1100 on: March 13, 2018, 10:50:57 am »

Yeah, Lamb's probably going to win this. They can't use the "Workers get off at 5" excuse since a trove of working class individuals are going for Lamb.

Btw, my Aunt lives in Mt. Lebanon. You're welcome, Conor. Wink
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Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1101 on: March 13, 2018, 10:53:20 am »

Everything is working in his favor: Poll numbers, turnout, weather, enthusiasm, fundraising numbers, etc. I'm getting to the point where I would be kinda shocked if Saccone were to pull this off.
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #1102 on: March 13, 2018, 10:58:41 am »

@fluffypanther19
In politics worldwide, red is usually associated with the left and blue with the right.

Edit: The USA is the opposite for some reason.
oh ok. thank you
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #1103 on: March 13, 2018, 10:59:22 am »


Twitter is a cruel place for the proper Atlas colors.
im still fairly new here and I gotta ask; why are dems red and reps blue? just cause? It threw me off for a bit when I first got here

Dave picked those colors before Red = Republican and Blue = Democrat
thank you
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #1104 on: March 13, 2018, 11:00:47 am »

Maybe we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves? This is still a Trump +20 district, and the polling we've got indicates that this race is Lean Lamb at best.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #1105 on: March 13, 2018, 11:01:37 am »

Everything is working in his favor: Poll numbers, turnout, weather, enthusiasm, fundraising numbers, etc. I'm getting to the point where I would be kinda shocked if Saccone were to pull this off.
That rain in NoVa though...
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #1106 on: March 13, 2018, 11:02:16 am »

Yeah Democrats here are sounding far too confident considering this is a tossup race in a heavily Republican district.
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Arch
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« Reply #1107 on: March 13, 2018, 11:03:29 am »

Yeah Democrats here are sounding far too confident considering this is a tossup race in a heavily Republican district.

I'm cautiously optimistic about this. That's as far as I go. But I will celebrate it as much as the AL Senate victory if it happens because it would be an astounding victory.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1108 on: March 13, 2018, 11:04:50 am »

We have our first turnout report:





11% turnout at 10:30. Precinct results from 2016:

Clinton: 33
Trump: 63

DePasquale : 40
Brown: 55
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Hollywood756
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« Reply #1109 on: March 13, 2018, 11:06:04 am »

Dammit, Josh and Toby want to have a word with ALL of you Jinxing effing Jinxers!  IT ISN'T OVER.
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Deranged California Suburbanite
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1110 on: March 13, 2018, 11:08:26 am »


Thank you for spreading the Good Word.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #1111 on: March 13, 2018, 11:13:11 am »

Let's not jinx but having said that there is definitely better news on the ground for Conor then say Ossoff
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Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1112 on: March 13, 2018, 11:23:01 am »



Lambslide
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The Saint
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« Reply #1113 on: March 13, 2018, 11:28:12 am »

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yeah, I can't see how a chaotic day at the WH will help turnout for him at all.

I assume this is what we're talking about.

I don't know that it will really affect turnout or Saccone's support ... however, it is a pretty surefire way to make sure the likely (but by no means guaranteed) GOP loss tonight will barely register in the papers over the next few days.

I'm not saying Trump did this, btw. Dumping a secretary of state in order to distract attention away from a single special election loss is spectacularly poor strategy. But to be honest, it fits Trump's modus pretty comfortably.


Too much of a coincidence for it to be a coincidence.

I think that's giving Trump too much credit
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bilaps
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« Reply #1114 on: March 13, 2018, 11:28:38 am »

this anecdotal stuff is so stupid
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DTC
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« Reply #1115 on: March 13, 2018, 11:51:16 am »

this anecdotal stuff is so stupid

Yeah lol

Unless we have a bunch of data points to compare to, this is kinda misleading
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Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1116 on: March 13, 2018, 11:53:18 am »

http://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-nation/2018/03/13/district-18-Special-election-pennsylvania-house-Conor-Lamb-Rick-Saccone-congress-tim-murphy/stories/201803120128

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Turnout is smashing. VERY good news for Lamb.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1117 on: March 13, 2018, 11:57:38 am »


Turnout is smashing. VERY good news for Lamb.

2016 results in Allegheny: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/PA/Allegheny/63905/Web02.193333/#/cid/0104

I'm nervous about high turnout because of what happened with Ossoff, but I see Castle Shannon voted Clinton.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1118 on: March 13, 2018, 11:59:07 am »

this anecdotal stuff is so stupid

Yeah lol

Unless we have a bunch of data points to compare to, this is kinda misleading

Yeah, I'd like to see some results out of outlying counties.
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Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1119 on: March 13, 2018, 11:59:42 am »


Turnout is smashing. VERY good news for Lamb.

2016 results in Allegheny: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/PA/Allegheny/63905/Web02.193333/#/cid/0104

I'm nervous about high turnout because of what happened with Ossoff, but I see Castle Shannon voted Clinton.

Well, we saw the Monmouth poll. High turnout = Lamb victory.
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Mondale
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« Reply #1120 on: March 13, 2018, 12:15:05 pm »

Lol....

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Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1121 on: March 13, 2018, 12:15:55 pm »

Lol....



Something funny?
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Mondale
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« Reply #1122 on: March 13, 2018, 12:18:08 pm »

Lol....



Something funny?

The distinction between the 2 candidates. You have Succone ranting like a madman and then Conner taking pics with puppies and going to the polls with g-ma
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1123 on: March 13, 2018, 12:20:28 pm »



NYT is going to have a nice precinct by precinct map for the needle later. Overall, I say Lamb under-preforms in Westmoreland, and over-preforms south of Allegheny in comparison to the base projection.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1124 on: March 13, 2018, 12:21:59 pm »

Also, the NYT live page is up:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html
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