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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 131396 times)
rob in cal
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« Reply #1050 on: March 13, 2018, 12:41:00 am »

  I'm declaring this race over, just put 20% of my predictit account on Lamb at 66% chance to win.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #1051 on: March 13, 2018, 02:33:43 am »

Lamb's got this.
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Blair
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« Reply #1052 on: March 13, 2018, 03:03:09 am »
« Edited: March 13, 2018, 03:10:10 am by Blair »

Iím too lazy to find the clip but Saconne was awful at the Trump rally. Was screaming at the top of his lungs, waving his arms, lavishly praised Trump and then made those stupid god comments.

The GOP have had some awful canidiate and it will be interesting to watch how more skilled politicians like Rick Scott, McSally etc run in the Trump age.

Fwiw I wonder if Ryan will retire if lamb wins.
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cp
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« Reply #1053 on: March 13, 2018, 03:16:05 am »

So the big day is finally here!

A couple of logistical questions:

1. Will there be an exit poll?

2. Related to that, are there any sources for information pre-8pm that aren't completely hackish/untrustworthy?

3. What are the best sites for following the tally?

4. How long will it take to count the ballots? Or put another way, at what percentage of the ballot count can we expect a definitive result?

FWIW, my money is on Lamb by 2.5.
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Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1054 on: March 13, 2018, 05:29:24 am »

So... any turnout reports yet?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1055 on: March 13, 2018, 05:59:13 am »


Go back to bed. Smiley
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1056 on: March 13, 2018, 07:23:39 am »


You realize it was 5:30 am when you sent that, right?

It was a joke, my sweet Smiley
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Biden/Abrams Voter
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1057 on: March 13, 2018, 07:44:08 am »

Is everybody ready for the ride? Because it never ends!

Get your panic and popcorn ready, and be prepared to overreact to every single morsel of information as it comes in!



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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1058 on: March 13, 2018, 08:14:13 am »

Let's light this thread UP! Rise and shine, Atlasians!
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1059 on: March 13, 2018, 08:26:21 am »

Btw, the weather is BEAUTIFUL in Allegheny right now!
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1060 on: March 13, 2018, 08:28:04 am »

Finally woke up and I'm currently in the middle of the Nor'Eastern, so I'm going to be here all day. But since its the final day, I give a concluding thought.

As we have known for a while, there are very few takeaways from this election. It is only one house seat, on a map that is vanishing. If Lamb wins, then he probably eliminates of of Rothfus's non-monetary incumbency advantage for his challenge to PA-17, with an open PA-14. If Saccone wins, then PA-14 isn't open, but Lamb is still challenging Rothfus - so does it matter?

However, one thing that still hold true, and probably explains why this race became so close, is that the parties really need to ensure good Candidate recruitment. Excluding the controversial torture stuff, Saccone has a excellent resume that would lock up many types of congressional seats. However, as Wasserman states, the best and historically victorious candidates tend to have life stories that are harmonious with the district, regardless of ideology. Saccone lacks the working class  reputation that still flows through the seat, and instead has a more Allegheny-suburban one. His Pro-RTW past probably matched these Republican suburbs - and would match many other parts of the country, but here they sent the still strong Unions against him.

The defending party loves to say that they have candidates who know their district and can localize the race the prevent defeat. However, these special elections have shone that Democrats have a great bench of B - tier candidates who match their seat, while Republicans are struggling with C and D tier candidates that don't match their seats (or F like Moore).
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« Reply #1061 on: March 13, 2018, 08:28:36 am »

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.
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Arch
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« Reply #1062 on: March 13, 2018, 08:38:13 am »

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yeah, I can't see how a chaotic day at the WH will help turnout for him at all.
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« Reply #1063 on: March 13, 2018, 08:38:48 am »

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yep.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1064 on: March 13, 2018, 08:40:02 am »

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1065 on: March 13, 2018, 08:42:16 am »

Miles has his map ready:

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cp
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« Reply #1066 on: March 13, 2018, 08:50:55 am »

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yeah, I can't see how a chaotic day at the WH will help turnout for him at all.

I assume this is what we're talking about.

I don't know that it will really affect turnout or Saccone's support ... however, it is a pretty surefire way to make sure the likely (but by no means guaranteed) GOP loss tonight will barely register in the papers over the next few days.

I'm not saying Trump did this, btw. Dumping a secretary of state in order to distract attention away from a single special election loss is spectacularly poor strategy. But to be honest, it fits Trump's modus pretty comfortably.
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Arch
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« Reply #1067 on: March 13, 2018, 08:52:00 am »

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yeah, I can't see how a chaotic day at the WH will help turnout for him at all.

I assume this is what we're talking about.

I don't know that it will really affect turnout or Saccone's support ... however, it is a pretty surefire way to make sure the likely (but by no means guaranteed) GOP loss tonight will barely register in the papers over the next few days.

I'm not saying Trump did this, btw. Dumping a secretary of state in order to distract attention away from a single special election loss is spectacularly poor strategy. But to be honest, it fits Trump's modus pretty comfortably.


Too much of a coincidence for it to be a coincidence.
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« Reply #1068 on: March 13, 2018, 08:55:58 am »

Heard from a friend that lines are already long in Allegheny. Plus the weather is very nice.

Still ten hours to go.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1069 on: March 13, 2018, 08:57:29 am »


Miles being forced to use the bad colors.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1070 on: March 13, 2018, 08:57:50 am »

Thank you JMC for the map template.

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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #1071 on: March 13, 2018, 09:03:59 am »

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yeah, I can't see how a chaotic day at the WH will help turnout for him at all.

I assume this is what we're talking about.

I don't know that it will really affect turnout or Saccone's support ... however, it is a pretty surefire way to make sure the likely (but by no means guaranteed) GOP loss tonight will barely register in the papers over the next few days.

I'm not saying Trump did this, btw. Dumping a secretary of state in order to distract attention away from a single special election loss is spectacularly poor strategy. But to be honest, it fits Trump's modus pretty comfortably.

If he can impose steel tariffs for the sake of this election, then nothing is off the table tbh.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1072 on: March 13, 2018, 09:04:54 am »


Twitter is a cruel place for the proper Atlas colors.
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Virginia Yellow Dog
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« Reply #1073 on: March 13, 2018, 09:10:10 am »

It's a bad omen when even tax cuts can't lift your candidate in a heavily Republican district that went for Trump by 20 points in 2016:

Republicans abandon tax cut message in Pa. special election
Itís a sign they think the issue isnít resonating ó potentially a big problem in the midterms.
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kph14
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« Reply #1074 on: March 13, 2018, 09:12:49 am »

Its over. Calling it now: snow has destroyed Lamb in Allegheny County, in this competitive house race.  Saccone wins by 2-3 points, and a very slight or none at all net gain for Democrats in the house in november.


(/s)

Funny.
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