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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 131405 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1025 on: March 12, 2018, 07:21:51 pm »


Yeah, don't put the cart before the horse.  There were people talking up Ossoff for President in 2028 before the GA-6 special.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1026 on: March 12, 2018, 07:25:17 pm »

Guys. Lamb is going to win. Let's stop with the "Ohh partisan lean!" "Might eek out!" "Saccone +27" crap. The polls have continuously moved in favor of Lamb, he has the energized base, has the fundraising numbers, etc.

Plus, Saccone is talking like he knows he's gonna lose.

I hope you're right.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1027 on: March 12, 2018, 07:34:23 pm »


Yeah, don't put the cart before the horse.  There were people talking up Ossoff for President in 2028 before the GA-6 special.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #1028 on: March 12, 2018, 07:35:45 pm »

Is it too early to start making Lamb for Senate '22 signs?
Jumping the gun is a favorite pastime of atlas
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ExSky
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« Reply #1029 on: March 12, 2018, 08:01:32 pm »

Am i misthinking, or is this race the most concerning for Republicans. Doug Jones winning in Alabama was crazy, but this is a coal district and the numbers have been trending Lamb and the momentum isnt slowing. If this works out, and it looks like it will, a blue dog democrat revival in the rust belt could be underway.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1030 on: March 12, 2018, 08:02:07 pm »

Who's ready for the inevitable panic/elation over anecdotal turnout reports?
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swf541
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« Reply #1031 on: March 12, 2018, 08:11:27 pm »

Who's ready for the inevitable panic/elation over anecdotal turnout reports?

I for one am hyped for the atlas freak outs
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Smash255
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« Reply #1032 on: March 12, 2018, 08:12:30 pm »

Am i misthinking, or is this race the most concerning for Republicans. Doug Jones winning in Alabama was crazy, but this is a coal district and the numbers have been trending Lamb and the momentum isnt slowing. If this works out, and it looks like it will, a blue dog democrat revival in the rust belt could be underway.

Hard to say.  While there are strong coal ties in the district, the district is more white collar than what most people think.  If Lamb wins it will almost certainly be because he torched Saccone in the white collar well-educated inner suburbs.  The blue collar coal regions will likely swing as well and will have some impact, but this could also be viewed as more evidence of the absolute collapse of the GOP with well educated suburbanites.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #1033 on: March 12, 2018, 08:18:56 pm »

This contest is fool's gold for Democrats, just like the GA-6 election was.  The announcements of the steel tariffs and the meeting with Kim will push Saccone over the line.  (I almost wonder if the timing of the tariff announcement was timed to coincide with this election.)
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #1034 on: March 12, 2018, 08:20:39 pm »

Who's ready for the inevitable panic/elation over anecdotal turnout reports?

I for one am hyped for the atlas freak outs
And I'm dreading the premature reports of "Saccone/Lamb has won it" when less than 20% of the precincts are counted.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1035 on: March 12, 2018, 08:21:03 pm »

This contest is fool's gold for Democrats, just like the GA-6 election was.  The announcements of the steel tariffs and the meeting with Kim will push Saccone over the line.  (I almost wonder if the timing of the tariff announcement was timed to coincide with this election.)

Except that like 95% of voters in the district don't care enough about it to sway their votes.
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #1036 on: March 12, 2018, 08:26:16 pm »

I have anxiety every Election Day all day. This one is really going to put me on edge, more so than the Alabama Senate race.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1037 on: March 12, 2018, 08:37:49 pm »

This contest is fool's gold for Democrats, just like the GA-6 election was.  The announcements of the steel tariffs and the meeting with Kim will push Saccone over the line.  (I almost wonder if the timing of the tariff announcement was timed to coincide with this election.)

Except that like 95% of voters in the district don't care enough about it to sway their votes.

In fact, the Monmouth poll found that 96% of the voters said that the tariff announcement did not affect their vote.
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Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1038 on: March 12, 2018, 08:38:58 pm »
« Edited: March 12, 2018, 08:45:20 pm by PittsburghSteel »

Didn't the Monmouth poll state that over 95% of the voters said the tariffs will not effect their vote?

Btw, Oldies, nobody in South Western Pennsylvania cares about Kim Jung-un.
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OneJ
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« Reply #1039 on: March 12, 2018, 08:40:05 pm »

This contest is fool's gold for Democrats, just like the GA-6 election was.  The announcements of the steel tariffs and the meeting with Kim will push Saccone over the line.  (I almost wonder if the timing of the tariff announcement was timed to coincide with this election.)

Proof, please. Oh wait...
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1040 on: March 12, 2018, 08:41:15 pm »

Didn't the Monmouth poll state that over 95% of the voters said the tariffs will not effect their vote?

See previous post above yours. Smiley
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« Reply #1041 on: March 12, 2018, 08:44:16 pm »
« Edited: March 12, 2018, 08:48:33 pm by PittsburghSteel »

For the love of Christ. How many times do I have to explain that GA-06 and PA-18 are two completely different districts with completely different candidates? Different income groups, different ethnicities, different histories, different party registration, etc. There is no correlation between Ossoff and Lamb besides the fact they are in their 30s. Lamb is strong, charismatic, relatable, and he fits the district like a glove. He's also been GAINING traction in the polls. Ossoff LOST ground in the final weeks, and by Election Day, Handel had the advantage. Don't believe me? Here's the proof: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/house/ga/georgia_6th_district_runoff_election_handel_vs_ossoff-6202.html

ENOUGH with the comparisons.
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socaldem
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« Reply #1042 on: March 12, 2018, 09:16:28 pm »
« Edited: March 12, 2018, 09:33:52 pm by socaldem »

So if Conor Lamb wins PA-18 and runs in PA-17, as expected....

What if Saccone decides to run again in PA-14 on the basis that he won the territory in the new PA-14 that overlaps with the old PA-18?

Would he potentially endanger PA-14 for the GOP in 2018?

The filing deadline is the 20th... Saccone's current district is mostly Allegheny but it straddles Washington.

If Conor Lamb gets in the mid-40s in the non-Allegheny part of the district, that could spell some trouble for Saccone because the new district adds in the bluer (still red but very ancestrally Democratic) parts of Washington/Greene, all of historically Democratic Fayette County and some Dem pockets of Westmoreland.

Saccone is a suburban/exurban politician and his antagonistic relationship with unions would not play well in the new territory.

If Dems were to recruit a Dem more conservative than Lamb (a la Ojeda) and Saccone were to have the stink of a loss on him, could we get a twofer out of this?
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #1043 on: March 12, 2018, 09:32:40 pm »

So if Conor Lamb wins PA-18 and Saccone decides to run again in PA-14?

Would he potentially endanger PA-14 for the GOP?

The filing deadline is the 20th... Saccone's current district is mostly Allegheny but it straddles Washington.

If Conor Lamb gets in the mid-40s in the non-Allegheny part of the district, that could spell some trouble for Saccone because the new district adds in the bluer (still red but very ancestrally Democratic) parts of Washington/Greene/Westmoreland counties plus Fayette County.

Saccone is a suburban/exurban politician and his antagonistic relationship with unions would not play well in the new territory.

If Dems were to recruit a Dem more conservative than Lamb and Saccone were to have the stink of a loss on him, could we get a twofer out of this?
Tossup with cerilli
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #1044 on: March 12, 2018, 09:58:13 pm »


I hope Lamb wins.. This guy seems like a dumba$$
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#Joemala2020
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« Reply #1045 on: March 12, 2018, 10:27:09 pm »

This literally reads like a Roy Moore speech. LOL.
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Fuzzy Will Kick Covid's Ass!
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« Reply #1046 on: March 12, 2018, 10:28:49 pm »


Honestly, this is pretty much typical for him. At least when he's not heavily managed or filtered through spokespersons
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #1047 on: March 12, 2018, 11:08:16 pm »


Honestly, this is pretty much typical for him. At least when he's not heavily managed or filtered through spokespersons
He's like the low energy version of Donald Trump.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1048 on: March 12, 2018, 11:30:54 pm »

Does anyone have any info on what the unions in the District have been doing in the election/the importance of the the various unions?

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/unions-conor-lamb-pa-18

I was wondering what exactly Lamb was doing yesterday in Greene County, which after all makes up a relatively small share of the total votes within the district, speaking to that standing room crowd at the Greene County Fairgrounds to a heavily UMWA audience....

Now it starts to make a bit more sense when one thinks of the compare/contrast argument to Ancestral Dems in Washington and Greene County, which as recently as 2008 basically split their vote 50-50 in a US Presidential election.

One must also wonder to what extent the "Wildcat" Teachers strike in West Virginia, right over the border has received significant local media coverage as a major victory for a revitalized Labor Movement deep in the heart of Union Country, where only a few short decades back there was a major wildcat strike in the Coal Industry.

Here's an image of a something close to the T-Shirt that a 3rd Generation UMW/UMWA Coal Miner gave me when I was in College in Ohio in the early '90s and was bringing the UMWA to campuses throughout the region in Solidarity with the General Strike in the Appalachian Coal fields in '93, shortly after the bosses declared open war against the Miners after the Pittston Strike of '89.



Although many Union members in this region have long felt betrayed by national Democratic Political leaders it looks entirely feasible that in this case that the collective memories, knowledge, and family background does a compare/contrast of "Which Side are You On" between the two candidates to represent them in the US House....

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1049 on: March 12, 2018, 11:43:59 pm »

New Monmouth poll: Dem Conor Lamb leads in all turnout models.

With turnout similar to special elections over the last year: Lamb leads 51-45

With turnout similar to past midterms: Lamb leads 49-47

With turnout high across the board: Lamb leads 51-44




I'll treat any and all polls from a House Special Election with some serious grains of salt, even from an A+ polling outfit....

Polling for US-House elections have notoriously high MOEs as it is, let alone accounting for Special Election scenarios where there is only one race on the ballot.

Still, no question this is good news for Lamb especially considering the adjustments for various turnout scenarios.

One things that amused me slightly was one of the comments downthread from a Tweet from one of the polling dudes about adjusting to reflect the data from "Republican Precincts in Allegheny County"....

After looking at the precinct data from '12/'16 the vast majority of the precincts in Allegheny CD-18 are "Republican Precincts", even if we were to adjust to screen out precincts in Mount Lebanon (Democratic Stronghold) that more often than not tend to Lean 'Pub, but swung +20 Dem between '12 and '16.

Honestly it's starting to feel a bit like Lamb might have a best of two worlds:

1.) Increased dramatic swings within the Upper-Income Pittsburgh Suburban/Exurban parts of the district, especially in some of townships where there were only +5% Dem swings between '12/'16 (With 3rd Party Vote surges).

2.) Return of ancestral Dem voters in Washington/Greene many of whom were Obama/Romney/Trump voters at the National Level, but have still continued to give local/statewide Dems a decent shake.
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