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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 132306 times)
The Other Castro
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« Reply #1000 on: March 12, 2018, 04:42:48 pm »

Don't know if this has been posted yet, but the forecast for tomorrow in the district is 25-34°F and light snow.

Snow is just another form of rain, checkmate libs.
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Arch
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« Reply #1001 on: March 12, 2018, 04:44:21 pm »

Don't know if this has been posted yet, but the forecast for tomorrow in the district is 25-34°F and light snow.

Snow is just another form of rain, checkmate libs.

Advanced rain
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Skye
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« Reply #1002 on: March 12, 2018, 04:57:08 pm »

Gonna rate this Lean D now.
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cp
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« Reply #1003 on: March 12, 2018, 04:58:50 pm »

I really cannot see Saccone winning this. The polls showed a continuous shift to Lamb, the crosstabs are extremely favorable to Conor. I would honestly be shell shocked if Saccone won. It would be due to extremely low turnout (Something I don't see happening).

Great numbers for Lamb! *fingers crossed*

In the spirit of genuine debate (rather than concern trolling), if it turns out that Saccone somehow did pull out a victory tomorrow, how exactly would this happen? Or put another way, would would be the cause of the kind of polling error that would lead to Lamb being overestimated in this way?
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #1004 on: March 12, 2018, 04:59:43 pm »

Don't know if this has been posted yet, but the forecast for tomorrow in the district is 25-34°F and light snow.

Snow has destroyed Lamb in the Pittsburgh suburbs... I now predict that Saccone will get 78% of the vote based on my mind model
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1005 on: March 12, 2018, 05:01:34 pm »


I'll jump on that bandwagon.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1006 on: March 12, 2018, 05:03:09 pm »

Interesting:

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Virginiá
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« Reply #1007 on: March 12, 2018, 05:11:17 pm »

Interesting:

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Not too surprising. 538 and others like Cook have been remarking about strong approve/disapprove since Trump wormed his way into office. Someone who strongly dislikes Trump and what he is doing in office is not liable to help his party, which at this point I think is relatively clear will go far out of their way to protect Trump, no matter how dumb or corrupt his actions are. I have to admit, the lengths they will go is even surprising me. I always thought there would be a breaking point, but I guess that doesn't make sense since Republican voters like Trump a lot more than they like Republican lawmakers.
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #1008 on: March 12, 2018, 05:15:07 pm »

There are just too many factors that are in favor of Lamb. Lean D.
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Pack the Court & Lock Him Up
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1009 on: March 12, 2018, 05:53:27 pm »

Does anyone have any info on what the unions in the District have been doing in the election/the importance of the the various unions?

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/unions-conor-lamb-pa-18
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henster
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« Reply #1010 on: March 12, 2018, 06:13:21 pm »

Saccone's closing message.



https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/973325643160215560
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #1011 on: March 12, 2018, 06:16:12 pm »

Wow, no wonder he's about to lose tomorrow. Definitely the tone of a confident campaign.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #1012 on: March 12, 2018, 06:17:50 pm »


Calling your opponents Godless heathens isn't exactly a good thing to do to get your base out and keep the other side's out....
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Unpolled Amash Voter for Trump
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« Reply #1013 on: March 12, 2018, 06:20:18 pm »


Mann... I liked Saccone until that. Wtf is wrong with him?
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #1014 on: March 12, 2018, 06:20:56 pm »


Yeah, I really can't see him winning.
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marty
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« Reply #1015 on: March 12, 2018, 06:26:35 pm »

Why did the republican win this by 37 in 2016?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1016 on: March 12, 2018, 06:26:46 pm »
« Edited: March 12, 2018, 07:42:10 pm by Progressive Pessimist »

My prediction prior to today was Saccone winning by 3, now I'm not so sure. I had my doubts before about a Lamb victory tomorrow but that new Monmouth poll is truly astounding! Even with the possibility of snow, Lamb will likely keep it close at a bare minimum. I still suspect that this district's natural partisan lean might help Saccone eke out a narrow win but I am now more confident than ever that Lamb could very well pull this off. It's pathetic how happy I will be if he does.

This is a true tossup and I am at least confident that it will end up embarrassing the GOP with either them losing or barely winning in a district where a Democrat shouldn't have had a chance.
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #1017 on: March 12, 2018, 06:28:10 pm »
« Edited: March 12, 2018, 06:35:49 pm by PittsburghSteel »

Guys. Lamb is going to win. Let's stop with the "Ohh partisan lean!" "Might eek out!" "Saccone +27" crap. The polls have continuously moved in favor of Lamb, he has the energized base, has the fundraising numbers, etc.

Plus, Saccone is talking like he knows he's gonna lose.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1018 on: March 12, 2018, 06:33:58 pm »


He sounds exactly like Trump here, did he have a stroke or something?
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Pack the Court & Lock Him Up
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1019 on: March 12, 2018, 06:39:23 pm »

"If you hate our President and especially if you hate our party, then you also hate God"

- Rick "Sacc'd" Saccone
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Mondale
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« Reply #1020 on: March 12, 2018, 06:42:44 pm »


Looks like we're headed for a Lambslide
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #1021 on: March 12, 2018, 06:43:55 pm »


ba dum tss
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1022 on: March 12, 2018, 06:46:03 pm »

Why did the republican win this by 37 in 2016?

It's not like if Lamb ran in 2016, he'd have won. Don't get me wrong, he's a great candidate (against a poor one at that), but the national environment and who is president has a lot to do with it. I'd even argue it has the most to do with it. In 2016, Obama was still the incumbent and Democrats were in an election under 8 continuous years of a Democratic president who was generally more unpopular than he was popular. That takes a toll.

This is why I sometimes say that I really think most people have forgotten just how much an unpopular incumbent president can hurt their party in elections held while that president is in office. It seriously sucks the energy out of their party while firing up the opposition. Doubly so when said president is extremely controversial, like Trump. They don't call it the White House curse for nothing.
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Arch
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« Reply #1023 on: March 12, 2018, 06:53:32 pm »

Is it too early to start making Lamb for Senate '22 signs?

Yes
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1024 on: March 12, 2018, 07:17:20 pm »

Why did the republican win this by 37 in 2016?

In addition to what Virginia said, Murphy was pro-union and Democrats had given up seriously contesting this district with him in it (if they ever did.)
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