CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???

[I’m not Stu]

Newsom will steamroll any of these chumps. He’s way too good looking, charming, and articulate. He survived a scandal where he f**ked his campaign manager’s wife for Gods sake. Nobody will survive the Newsom wave. Get that Chiang BS outta here lol.

Then why did he almost lose to the Green Party candidate when he first ran for Mayor?

Because it was his first run for a city wide office.

None of these candidates are a serious threat to Newsom. He’ll squash these losers like the bugs they are. I don’t think Chiang could even win Orange County.

Newsom probably won't win every county, regardless of which candidate he faces.

[I’m not Stu]

In a one-on-one matchup, Which counties would Newsom lose to Villaraigosa, which ones would he lose to Chiang, and which ones would he lose to Eastin?

[DrScholl]

Newsom would probably lose some random counties against Chiang or Eastin, but not many. Against Villaraigosa he probably loses Los Angeles, Imperial and maybe some counties in the Central Valley due to the high Hispanic population.

[I’m not Stu]

Newsom would probably lose some random counties against Chiang or Eastin, but not many. Against Villaraigosa he probably loses Los Angeles, Imperial and maybe some counties in the Central Valley due to the high Hispanic population.

Newsom probably loses Mendocino, Humboldt, and Trinity to Eastin. Which counties would Chiang win, Orange, Los Angeles, San Diego?

[DrScholl]

Newsom would probably lose some random counties against Chiang or Eastin, but not many. Against Villaraigosa he probably loses Los Angeles, Imperial and maybe some counties in the Central Valley due to the high Hispanic population.

Newsom probably loses Mendocino, Humboldt, and Trinity to Eastin. Which counties would Chiang win, Orange, Los Angeles, San Diego?

Chiang wouldn't carry any large counties.

[I’m not Stu]

Newsom would probably lose some random counties against Chiang or Eastin, but not many. Against Villaraigosa he probably loses Los Angeles, Imperial and maybe some counties in the Central Valley due to the high Hispanic population.

Newsom probably loses Mendocino, Humboldt, and Trinity to Eastin. Which counties would Chiang win, Orange, Los Angeles, San Diego?

Chiang wouldn't carry any large counties.

What about Eastin?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think there is a real chance of one of the Republicans making the runoff (obviously with no chance), which would be important for turnout for downballot races.  I just wish there weren't two major Republicans- instead just one.

[I’m not Stu]

Would Delaine Eastin win anything other than Mendocino, Trinity, Humboldt, and maybe Santa Cruz?

[DrScholl]

I think there is a real chance of one of the Republicans making the runoff (obviously with no chance), which would be important for turnout for downballot races.  I just wish there weren't two major Republicans- instead just one.

The business interests don't seem to think that is likely and are going in for Villaraigosa to give a "hold your nose" option for Republicans.

Would Delaine Eastin win anything other than Mendocino, Trinity, Humboldt, and maybe Santa Cruz?

Probably all of those, except Santa Cruz. I could see her carrying Siskiyou as well and maybe a random Gold Rush county.

[MAINEiac4434]

Newsom will steamroll any of these chumps. He’s way too good looking, charming, and articulate. He survived a scandal where he f**ked his campaign manager’s wife for Gods sake. Nobody will survive the Newsom wave. Get that Chiang BS outta here lol.

Then why did he almost lose to the Green Party candidate when he first ran for Mayor?

To be fair that was his very first race and he hasn't come close to losing office since then.

[I’m not Stu]

I think there is a real chance of one of the Republicans making the runoff (obviously with no chance), which would be important for turnout for downballot races.  I just wish there weren't two major Republicans- instead just one.

A Republican could make the runoff. There are 32 candidates. More Democrats are running than Republicans. 9 Republicans and 11 Democrats (12 Democrats counting independent Michael Shellenberger).

Candidates:
R:
Travis Allen
Doug Ose
John Cox
Stasyi Barth
Laura Smith
Brian Domingo
Robert Kleinberger
John Estrada
John Zuber
D:
Gavin Newsom
Antonio Villaraigosa
John Chiang
Delaine Eastin
Akinyemi Agbede
David Asem
Klement Tinaj
Harmesh Kumar
Ted Crisell
Michael Bracamontes
Juan Bribiesca
I:
Michael Shellenberger
Andy Blanch
Grant Handzlik
Frederic Prinz von Anhalt
H. Fuji Shioura
L:
Zoltan Istvan
Nickolas Wildstar
G:
Veronica Fimbres
Josh Jones
Peace and Freedom:
Gloria La Riva
American Independent:
Joshua Laine
American Solidarity:
Desmond Silveira

[Coastal Elitist]

I don't think it's guaranteed that Newsom will make it through to the general election. He's only at 19% overall with 35% of the Democratic vote according to the last poll, which isn't great considering the primary is in 5 months. It is true that in last year's Senate race Harris was at 19% in early polls, but that was over a year before the primary. You would expect his poll numbers to be better than that. There were a lot of undecided voters in the most recent poll: 29% and 23% of those polled selected different candidates than the top 6.

Also in the latest poll it should be noted that 37% of Republicans were undecided opposed to 18% of Democrats and 40% of Independents. Allen was only 1 point behind Villaraigosa and there are more Republicans that are undecided. If the top 4 Democrats split the vote a Republican should make the top 2.

[I’m not Stu]

I don't think it's guaranteed that Newsom will make it through to the general election. He's only at 19% overall with 35% of the Democratic vote according to the last poll, which isn't great considering the primary is in 5 months. It is true that in last year's Senate race Harris was at 19% in early polls, but that was over a year before the primary. You would expect his poll numbers to be better than that. There were a lot of undecided voters in the most recent poll: 29% and 23% of those polled selected different candidates than the top 6.

Also in the latest poll it should be noted that 37% of Republicans were undecided opposed to 18% of Democrats and 40% of Independents. Allen was only 1 point behind Villaraigosa and there are more Republicans that are undecided. If the top 4 Democrats split the vote a Republican should make the top 2.

19% will make the runoff. One could make the runoff with only 7% (finishing second in the primary) with over 30 candidates in the race. Chiang, Villaraigosa, Allen, Ose, Cox, or Eastin could get in with just 7%.

[King Cobra]

California is a single party state. That said, it's an invite-only party and if you're from Southern California you better start lobbying or something. Your family won't feed itself.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

It will probably be another D vs. D race, as will the Senate race.  Hope it increases demand for California to get rid of their unfair, undemocratic, and unconstitutional primary system.

[Gass3268]

It will probably be another D vs. D race, as will the Senate race.  Hope it increases demand for California to get rid of their unfair, undemocratic, and unconstitutional primary system.

I have never met anyone that likes the top two structure, regardless of party. Republicans don't like it for statewide races and Democrats don't like it for legislative races. Why does it still exist?

[Canis]

It will probably be another D vs. D race, as will the Senate race.  Hope it increases demand for California to get rid of their unfair, undemocratic, and unconstitutional primary system.

I have never met anyone that likes the top two structure, regardless of party. Republicans don't like it for statewide races and Democrats don't like it for legislative races. Why does it still exist?

I like it it makes safe races more competitive and the republicans were the ones who made this happen don't forget it was Arnold who backed this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_14_(2010)
 

[Oryxslayer]

It will probably be another D vs. D race, as will the Senate race.  Hope it increases demand for California to get rid of their unfair, undemocratic, and unconstitutional primary system.

I have never met anyone that likes the top two structure, regardless of party. Republicans don't like it for statewide races and Democrats don't like it for legislative races. Why does it still exist?

Someone noted in another thread that Californians (including me) support the primary 60 system 60-26.

http://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-december-2017/

[I’m not Stu]

It will probably be another D vs. D race, as will the Senate race.  Hope it increases demand for California to get rid of their unfair, undemocratic, and unconstitutional primary system.

I have never met anyone that likes the top two structure, regardless of party. Republicans don't like it for statewide races and Democrats don't like it for legislative races. Why does it still exist?

Someone noted in another thread that Californians (including me) support the primary 60 system 60-26.

http://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-december-2017/

Independents (even GOP-leaning independents) would prefer to have someone like Feinstein on the ballot than a Republican who has no chance.

[Coastal Elitist]

For those following the race. Their is another debate with the top 6 candidates at UCLA on January 25th at 5:30 PM. It is hosted by the Latino Community Foundation and will air live on Univision.

It's free to attend. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-2018-gubernatorial-forum-tickets-39848240159

[DrScholl]

It will probably be another D vs. D race, as will the Senate race.  Hope it increases demand for California to get rid of their unfair, undemocratic, and unconstitutional primary system.

Where is the unconstitutionality? The constitution says nothing about a primary system and there is nothing in there that would guarantees anything to political parties.

[I’m not Stu]

It will probably be another D vs. D race, as will the Senate race.  Hope it increases demand for California to get rid of their unfair, undemocratic, and unconstitutional primary system.

Where is the unconstitutionality? The constitution says nothing about a primary system and there is nothing in there that would guarantees anything to political parties.

Scalia said partisan blanket primaries are unconstitutional, but that the top-two (nonpartisan blanket primary) is constitutional.

[I’m not Stu]

Could a D vs. D race be competitive?

[King Cobra]

California really needs to get rid of it's bullshit unilateral disarmament policy when it comes to redistricting. We should be the most gerrymandered state in the country.

Democrats had a worse map when they had complete control.

[DrScholl]

The 2002 map was a compromise map that protected seats on both sides of the aisle. Considering that the redistricting commission was approved by voters it would have to be decommissioned by voters and it's beyond unlikely that voters would do that.