If the Democrats lose only one Senate seat, which one would flip?
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  If the Democrats lose only one Senate seat, which one would flip?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Well?
#1
Indiana		  
#2
Missouri		  
#3
West Virginia		  
#4
North Dakota		  
#5
Another state		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 74

Author Topic: If the Democrats lose only one Senate seat, which one would flip?  (Read 638 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: January 04, 2018, 09:07:11 PM »
So let's say Democrats retake the House in 2018 but fall just short of a Senate majority because even though NV and AZ have flipped, Democrats have lost all the other R-held seats (they did well in TX and TN, it just wasn't enough) but also one of their own incumbent Senators. Which seat would be a R pickup in this scenario?

I know we like to talk about MO a lot, but I'm inclined to believe that if 2018 is such a massive wave year that Republicans are basically getting clobbered across the country, it would have to be a state where Trump is still very popular, so I went with WV (probably the one state where Trump campaigning for the R nominee could still help the GOP, maybe even in a D wave year).

I also included ND in the poll because Trump won it by 36 points in 2016 and most pundits consider Heitkamp very vulnerable.
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2018, 09:08:23 PM »
Missouri probably, though you could make a case for Indiana.
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jamestroll
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« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2018, 09:11:03 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on January 04, 2018, 09:08:23 PM
Missouri probably, though you could make a case for Indiana.


I LOVE CLAIRE MCCASKILL AND IF YOU DO NOT LIKE THAT TOO BAD.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2018, 09:12:41 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on January 04, 2018, 09:08:23 PM
Missouri probably, though you could make a case for Indiana.
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« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2018, 09:49:42 PM »
North Dakota (sane)
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2018, 11:35:03 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on January 04, 2018, 09:08:23 PM
Missouri probably, though you could make a case for Indiana.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: January 05, 2018, 12:24:46 AM »
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Pollster
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« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2018, 12:34:26 AM »
Heitkamp and Manchin's personal brands are incredibly strong, and I imagine both would be re-elected even with Clinton in the White House.

McCaskill is a much stronger campaigner and candidate than many give her credit for (she wins by mid-single digits without Akin's abortion gaffe) and the recent Presidential results are incredibly deceiving about the competitiveness of the state.

Donnelly by process of elimination.
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King Lear
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« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2018, 12:41:14 AM »
Missouri by far, I currently rate this Likely R, and the Republicans have a very strong candidate in Josh
Hawley, while compared to Manchin, Donnelly, and Hentkemp, Mcclaskil is quite Liberal, making her a easier target for Trump to tarnish.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2018, 01:37:18 AM »
Missouri is probably the most likely, but I think any of the four are possible, given the right circumstances. Manchin is probably the least likely to be the only Democrat to go down at this point, but if he makes a lot of mistakes on the campaign trail, it's possible.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2018, 01:42:01 AM »

Bingo. I think Hawley is a tougher opponent than Messer or Rokita.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2018, 02:53:31 AM »
Missouri, then Indiana. I think McCaskill's chances to win are below 50%, to be honest here.

I don't see Manchin in danger at all.
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Blair
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« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2018, 07:20:42 AM »
Missouri.

Possibility Florida if Scott runs
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ursulahx
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« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2018, 09:04:32 AM »
Can't choose between MO and IN.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2018, 09:39:59 AM »

Agree with this, but McCaskill is tougher than Donnelly.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2018, 12:16:04 PM »
Donnelly barely won in 2012 and has only statewide once before. McCaskill is a a much more formidable incumbent.
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Sestak
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« Reply #16 on: January 05, 2018, 03:35:17 PM »
Delaware.
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #17 on: January 05, 2018, 04:36:15 PM »
Nice Sarcasm
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