UK local by-elections, 2018

[ObserverIE]

A more substantial Holy Word here.

Fylde, Heyhouses

Con 58.1 (+13.1)
Lab 17.9 (-14.2)
Lib Dem 12.2 (-10.7)
Green 11.8 (+11.8)

New Forest, Milton

Con 76.4 (-3.1)
Lib Dem 14.5 (+14.5)
Lab 9.1 (-11.4)

Taunton Deane, Wiveliscombe

Green 44.7 (+31.5)
Lib Dem 29.0 (+16.3)
Con 26.2 (-8.0)

Highland, Caol and Mallaig

Lib Dem 31.1 (+21.6)
SNP 27.1 (+2.9)
Ind Wood 21.4
Con 8.8 (+0.3)
Ind McKinnon 6.9
Ind Campbell 4.6

Lib Dem	658	671	706	791	968
SNP	574	591	615	617	737
Ind W	454	471	539	580
Con	187	188	200
Ind McK	146	176
Ind C	98

Green gain Wiveliscombe from Ind
Lib Dem gain Caol and Mallaig from SNP

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word here.

Chichester, Rogate

Lib Dem 55.8 (+55.8)
Con 40.1 (-27.3)
Lab 2.6 (+2.6)
Green 1.5 (-18.2)

South Northamptonshire, Middleton Cheney

Con 42.1 (-18.6)
Lib Dem 34.1 (+34.1)
Lab 19.7 (+19.7)
Green 4.1 (+4.1)

St Edmundsbury, St Olaves

Lab 58.6 (+30.9)
Con 24.1 (-8.3)
Ind 12.4
Lib Dem 5.0 (+5.0)

Lib Dem gain Rogate from Con
Lab hold St Olaves

[aaaa2222]

I'm no master of UK politics, but it seems like the Lib Dems have had quite a run in the local by-elections, without any noticeable uptick in nationwide polling. Any theories as to why this could be? Is this a common occurrence?

[vileplume]

I'm no master of UK politics, but it seems like the Lib Dems have had quite a run in the local by-elections, without any noticeable uptick in nationwide polling. Any theories as to why this could be? Is this a common occurrence?

Yes very common. The Lib Dems usually do far better in local elections than they do in national elections and especially in local by-elections. They were doing very well in local by-elections prior to the 2017 GE but then they lost seats in the local elections and their national vote share fell even further at the GE. The Lib Dems have always been a more 'localist' party than either the Tories or Labour (who are very much 'national' parties) and thus most of their wins in these local by-elections are fought over local issues such as potholes, rubbish collection, trees etc. or the general competence (or lack thereof) of the Tory/Labour run council. These wins have nothing to do with national politics and unfortunately for them people don't choose the government based on 'who'd be most likely to fix the pothole outside my house'.

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word is here.

West Berkshire, Thatcham West

Lib Dem 48.4 (+8.9)
Con 30.9 (-18.5)
Lab 7.7 (-3.6)
Green 7.7 (+7.7)
UKIP 5.4 (+5.4)

Warrington, Lymm South

Lib Dem 42.8 (+11.7)
Con 36.2 (-2.6)
Lab 18.3 (-1.7)
UKIP 1.4 (-8.6)
Green 1.3 (+1.3)

Perth and Kinross, Highland

Con 46.7 (+1.3)
SNP 35.9 (-0.6)
Ind Taylor 6.9
Lab 5.8 (+5.8)
Green 2.5 (-1.5)
Lib Dem 1.9 (-1.6)
Ind Baykal 0.3

Con	1907	1908	1923	1930	1977	2084
SNP	1466	1467	1472	1509	1594	1712
Ind T	280	286	299	325	391
Lab	239	240	256	280
Green	104	106	118
Lib Dem	78	78
Ind B	12

Lib Dem gain Thatcham West from Con
Lib Dem gain Lymm South from Con
Con hold Highland

[Tintrlvr]

I'm no master of UK politics, but it seems like the Lib Dems have had quite a run in the local by-elections, without any noticeable uptick in nationwide polling. Any theories as to why this could be? Is this a common occurrence?

Yes very common. The Lib Dems usually do far better in local elections than they do in national elections and especially in local by-elections. They were doing very well in local by-elections prior to the 2017 GE but then they lost seats in the local elections and their national vote share fell even further at the GE. The Lib Dems have always been a more 'localist' party than either the Tories or Labour (who are very much 'national' parties) and thus most of their wins in these local by-elections are fought over local issues such as potholes, rubbish collection, trees etc. or the general competence (or lack thereof) of the Tory/Labour run council. These wins have nothing to do with national politics and unfortunately for them people don't choose the government based on 'who'd be most likely to fix the pothole outside my house'.

I think long-term improvements in local presence do help the Lib Dems, and it's clear that the Lib Dems do better in parliamentary elections in seats where they have a significant local elections presence than they do in otherwise similar seats where they have much less/zero presence in local elections. The one thing the local by-elections do indicate is that the Lib Dems are not actually dead as a party and will continue to muddle on rather than vanishing into obscurity. Of course, if the standard of success is performing as well as they did in 1997-2010, that's probably not coming back in the next couple of election cycles at least (although the Lib Dems and their Liberal predecessors went through multiple revival periods basically centered on single leaders, and it could be that they are just one successful leader away from another significant revival).

On a related note, two of the three by-elections this week look ripe for Lib Dem gains. The Tories should hold on to their seat in Highland (probably with the SNP second, though I wouldn't be totally shocked if the SNP managed to win the seat), while I'm going to predict Lib Dem gains from the Tories in both Thatcham West and Lymm.

[ObserverIE]

Last week's Holy Word here

Lancaster, Skerton West (changes in italics since September 2017 by-election)

Lab 57.5 (+22.6) (-4.0)
Con 27.4 (+0.6) (-7.2)
Lib Dem 9.3 (+9.3) (+5.3)
Green 5.8 (-3.8) (+5.8)

Lancaster, University and Scotforth Rural (changes in italics since December 2016 by-election)

Lab 46.1 (+9.4) (+11.7) (518, 423)
Green 24.4 (-8.4) (-3.9) (264, 235)
Con 18.0 (-5.8) (-6.4) (184, 184)
Lib Dem 11.5 (+4.8) (-1.4) (120, 114)

Suffolk Coastal, Leiston

Con 42.1 (+9.5)
Lab 23.1 (-1.5)
Ind 20.2
Lib Dem 14.6 (+6.6)

Lab hold one seat in University and Scotforth Rural and win seat held by Lab elected as Green

[ObserverIE]

From last week's Holy Words here and here:

North Kesteven, Kirkby la Thorpe and South Kyme

Lincs Ind 45.9 (+10.4)
Con 44.7 (-19.8)
Lab 5.0 (+5.0)
Lib Dem 4.5 (+4.5)

Broadland, Aylsham (changes in italics since March 2016 by-election)

Lib Dem 46.0 (+19.1) (-2.0)
Con 39.1 (+6.7) (+1.2)
Lab 14.8 (-10.1) (+0.8)

Stockport, Edgeley and Cheadle Heath

Lab 73.9 (+5.8)
Lib Dem 8.8 (+2.9)
Con 8.1 (+0.3)
Green 6.2 (+0.1)
UKIP 3.1 (-9.0)

Bristol, Westbury-on-Trym and Henleaze

Con 42.3 (-0.2)
Lib Dem 39.5 (+10.1)
Lab 13.0 (-2.8)
Green 5.2 (-7.2)

Waverley, Farnham Castle (changes in italics since August 2016 by-election)

Farnham Res 37.9 (+2.4) (-2.7)
Lib Dem 36.1 (+11.0) (+5.4)
Con 18.7 (-5.8) (-5.4)
Lab 4.5 (-10.4) (+4.5)
Ind 2.8

Horsham, Cowfold, Shermanbury and West Grinstead

Con 68.4 (-2.9)
Lab 16.3 (+16.3)
Lib Dem 15.3 (-13.4)

Tamworth, Glascote

Lab 42.7 (+11.9)
Con 41.7 (+15.2)
UKIP 10.8 (-26.6)
Green 4.8 (+4.8)

Lincs Ind gain Kirkby la Thorpe and South Kyme from Con
Lib Dem gain Aylsham from Con
Con gain Westbury-on-Trym and Henleaze from Lib Dem
Lab hold Glascote

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word here.

East Staffordshire, Crown

Con 76.1 (-3.3)
Lab 12.1 (-8.5)
Lib Dem 11.8 (+11.8)

Mid Devon, Cranmore

Con 45.1 (+0.6)
Lib Dem 32.5 (+32.5)
Lab 22.4 (-3.0)

South Oxfordshire, Benson and Crowhurst

Lib Dem 57.4 (+32.4)
Con 36.0 (-12.4)
Lab 6.6 (-5.4)

Lib Dem gain Benson and Crowhurst from Con

[ObserverIE]

A smaller than usual Holy Word here.

Doncaster, Town

Lab 46.8 (+9.3)
Yorks 24.6 (-1.8)
Green 12.7 (-1.3)
Con 11.2 (-10.9)
Lib Dem 2.8 (+2.8)
Ind 1.9

Southwark, London Bridge and West Bermondsey

Lib Dem 44.4 (1340, 1281, 1270)
Lab 41.3 (1239, 1215, 1171)
Con 7.4 (221, 219, 205)
Green 6.9 (215, 191)

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word here.

Fenland, Birch

Con 62.1 (+5.9)
Lib Dem 21.5 (+6.9)
Ind 16.4

Basildon, Lee Chapel North

Lab 57.4 (+1.7)
Con 25.0 (-1.5)
UKIP 13.6 (-4.1)
BNP 3.9 (+3.9)

Watford, Oxhey

Lib Dem 55.3 (-3.5)
Con 28.1 (+4.7)
Lab 16.6 (-1.1)

Basildon, Pitsea South East

Lab 46.1 (+6.8)
Con 45.6 (-0.5)
UKIP 8.3 (-2.3)

West Somerset, Alcombe

Lib Dem 39.2 (+39.2)
Con 27.1 (+0.9)
Ind 19.9
Lab 13.8 (-5.4)

Charnwood, Quorn and Mountsorrel Castle

Con 51.5 (-8.7)
Lab 21.8 (-3.5)
Lib Dem 16.7 (+16.7)
UKIP 10.0 (-4.5)

South Northamptonshire, Whittlewood

Lib Dem 56.7
Con 36.5
Lab 6.8

Cherwell, Bicester West

Ind 40.5 (+1.0)
Con 33.0 (+12.3)
Lab 20.2 (+4.6)
Green 3.3 (-4.0)
Lib Dem 3.0 (+3.0)

South Northamptonshire, Astwell

Con 76.9 (-0.9)
Lab 23.1 (+0.9)

Brent, Willesden Green

Lab 69.8 (+27.2) (1683, 1679, 1618)
Green 11.1 (-2.9) (289, 256, 250)
Con 10.3 (+3.2) (280, 237, 218)
Lib Dem 8.8 (-4.9) (254, 189, 184)

Basingstoke and Deane, Kempshott

Con 60.4 (-6.4)
Lab 32.4 (+11.2)
Lib Dem 7.2 (-4.8)

Lab gain Pitsea South East from UKIP
Lib Dem gain Alcombe from UKIP
Lib Dem gain Whittlewood from Con
Ind gain Bicester West from Con

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word here.

Leicestershire, Syston Ridgeway

Con 59.7 (+2.0)
Lab 18.5 (-2.3)
Lib Dem 11.0 (+5.0)
Green 7.2 (-1.2)
UKIP 3.6 (-3.5)

North Kesteven, Skellingthorpe

Lincs Ind 45.7 (+45.7)
Con 26.4 (-4.4)
Lab 17.0 (+17.0)
Lib Dem 10.9 (+3.4)

North Kesteven, North Hykeham Mill (changes in italics since July 2015 by-election)

Con 49.7 (-5.4) (+9.6)
Lincs Ind 22.6 (-22.3) (-2.6)
Lab 22.1 (+22.1) (-0.5)
Lib Dem 5.7 (+5.7) (+2.6)

North Devon, Fremington

Ind 50.8 (+6.7)
Con 31.3 (+12.6)
Lib Dem 10.5 (+10.5)
Lab 5.7 (+5.7)
Green 1.7 (-9.8)

Lincs Ind gain Skellingthorpe from Ind

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word here.

Lichfield, Curborough

Lab 60.4 (+27.6)
Con 33.0 (-8.6)
Lib Dem 6.6 (+6.6)

Bath and North East Somerset, Kingsmead

Lib Dem 41.1 (+12.7)
Lab 24.6 (+10.2)
Con 21.3 (-6.4)
Green 13.0 (-10.6)

Shropshire, Shifnal South and Cosford

Con 38.3 (-18.8)
Ind Mitchell 22.2 (-9.3)
Ind Carey 21.9
Lib Dem 17.7 (+6.3)

Lab gain Curborough from Con
Lib Dem gain Kingsmead from Con

[ObserverIE]

Bumper Holy Word here.

East Dorset, Verwood East

Con 75.1
Lab 24.9

Elmbridge, Oxshott and Stoke D'Abernon

Con 72.0 (-4.7)
Lib Dem 25.7 (+9.7)
UKIP 2.3 (+0.1)

Hartlepool, Rural West

Con 45.4 (-13.0)
Ind 36.5 (+18.5)
Lab 12.3 (-5.4)
Green 5.8 (-0.1)

Rutland, Oakham South West

Ind 29.6
Lib Dem 29.6 (+29.6)
Con 27.3 (-22.1)
Lab 13.4 (+13.4)

Barnsley, Old Town

Lab 44.2 (-10.6)
D&V 27.3 (+27.3)
Con 12.7 (-2.5)
Lib Dem 10.0 (+2.5)
Yorks 3.8 (+3.8)
BNP 2.0 (+2.0)

Darlington, Cockerton

Lab 51.0 (+9.5)
Con 22.0 (-3.4)
Lib Dem 9.6 (-5.9)
Ind 8.5
FB 5.8 (+5.8)
Green 3.1 (-14.5)

Waveney, Southwold and Reydon

Lib Dem 71.8 (+71.8)
Con 21.8 (-28.7)
Lab 5.5 (-12.8)
UKIP 1.3 (-14.7)

Lewes, Chailey and Wivelsfield

Con 53.6 (+5.6)
Lib Dem 30.8 (+8.3)
Lab 9.9 (+9.9)
Green 5.7 (-8.3)

Waveney, Pakefield

Con 43.8 (+9.4)
Lab 40.9 (-4.8)
UKIP 7.9 (+7.9)
Green 4.4 (-5.3)
Lib Dem 3.0 (-7.2)

Norfolk, Yare and All Saints

Con 64.8 (-7.9)
Lab 22.9 (+10.6)
Lib Dem 12.3 (-2.6)

Con hold Verwood East
Ind gain Oakham South West (by drawing of lots) from Con
Lib Dem gain Southwold and Reydon from Con
Con gain Pakefield from Lab

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word/Gair Sanctaidd here.

Carmarthenshire, Saron

PC 65.2 (+14.7)
Lab 20.9 (-14.1)
Con 12.7 (-1.6)
Lib Dem 1.2 (+1.2)

Oxford, Headington

Lib Dem 60.9 (-0.4)
Lab 26.9 (-0.2)
Con 8.0 (+1.7)
Green 4.3 (-1.1)

Bury, Besses

Lab 51.1 (-8.6)
Con 36.2 (+12.9)
Eng Dem 3.7 (-3.4)
Lib Dem 3.6 (-1.3)
Green 2.8 (-2.2)
UKIP 2.5 (+2.5)

West Lancashire, Hesketh-with-Becconsall

Con 41.2 (-18.6)
Lab 34.9 (+4.0)
Ind 23.8

Milton Keynes, Bletchley East

Lab 50.9 (+3.1)
Con 38.5 (-0.7)
Green 4.9 (-3.1)
UKIP 3.8 (+3.8)
Lib Dem 1.9 (-3.1)

Northamptonshire, St George

Lab 44.6 (+4.3)
Lib Dem 30.0 (+0.1)
Con 15.1 (-7.2)
UKIP 5.9 (-1.6)
Green 4.4 (+4.4)

[ObserverIE]

Another weekly installment of Holy Word/Yr Gair Sanctaidd here.

West Lancashire, Knowsley

Lab 40.8 (-10.1)
Our West Lancs 36.1 (+20.7)
Con 23.2 (-10.6)

New Forest, Fawley, Blackfield and Langley

Con 58.4 (+15.9)
Lib Dem 41.6 (+29.3)

Thanet, Birchington South

Con 63.6 (+35.1)
Lab 25.0 (+10.6)
Lib Dem 11.4 (+5.7)

Torridge, Hartland and Bradworthy (changes in italics since June 2017 by-election)

Con 58.5 (+58.5) (+58.5)
Lib Dem 29.3 (+29.3) (-28.2)
Green 12.2 (-12.7) (-30.3)

North East Lincolnshire, Freshney

Lab 41.3 (+0.7)
Con 38.8 (-6.2)
Ind 13.8
UKIP 4.7 (-4.5)
Green 1.4 (-2.9)

Plymouth, Stoke

Lab 52.8 (+0.3)
Con 36.3 (+2.9)
Lib Dem 6.4 (-1.4)
Action for Plymouth 4.5 (+4.5)

Merthyr Tydfil, Gurnos

Ind Davies 40.8 (-9.9)
Lab 40.0 (-9.3)
Ind Singh 15.7
Con 3.5 (+3.5)

Con gain Birchington South from Ind elected as UKIP
Con gain Hartland and Bradworthy from Lib Dem (Lib Dem by-election gain from UKIP)
Lab hold Freshney
Ind gain Gurnos from Lab

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word here.

Fylde, Ansdell

Con 72.4 (+22.5)
Lab 27.6 (+4.7)

Peterborough, Orton Longueville

Con 36.5 (-1.4)
Lab 33.7 (+1.2)
Lib Dem 12.1 (+4.4)
Green 10.3 (+2.7)
UKIP 7.3 (-7.0)

Kings Lynn and West Norfolk, Snettisham

Con 77.4 (+3.9)
Lib Dem 8.3 (+8.3)
Green 8.2 (+8.2)
UKIP 6.1 (+6.1)

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Syllable (translated from the Cornish) here.

Cornwall, Newquay Treviglas

Con 45.4 (+13.6)
Lib Dem 38.3 (-29.9)
Lab 16.4 (+16.4)

Con gain Newquay Treviglas from Lib Dem

[Arkansas Yankee]

Lib Dem collapse in Cornwall is really staggering, it still hasn't sunk in yet, for decades the liberals/LibDems dominanted Cornwall and devon,
Labour was never taken seriously here..  
former LibDem voters are flocking to Labour..

Would it not be more accurate to state that the Liberal voters at least in Cornwall are split in close to equal parts to the Conservatives and Labour.  It was a Conservative gain from the Liberals that gave them a victory was it not?

Looking at all of the local results this year including the general local elections in May it seems that the voters are very conflicted, as the parties are very conflicted.  Both major parties have deep divisions.  The Liberals are just not a major force in the the actual general election. They are mainly a home for liberally leaning protest voters. Ukip remains primarily an anti EU force. 

Generally the political world in the whole western world is in total flux. I maintain it has to do with the mass migrations of people. But the flux also involves many cultural and economic disagreements.

Most of you can guess what side I take in dealing with the flux.  But taking sides is not the purpose of this post.  The purpose is to point out the flux.  It is probably going to take many years to resolve everything.

[ObserverIE]

A glimpse of the Holy Word of the future (from 20182, to be exact) here.

Neath Port Talbot, Gwynfi

Ind Jones 57.8 (+13.9)
PC 15.7 (+15.7)
Lab 12.9 (-43.2)
Ind Joshua 9.7
Ind Paul 3.0
Con 0.9 (+0.9)

Bury, East

Lab 64.2 (+4.8)
Con 25.2 (-8.9)
UKIP 4.8 (+4.8)
Green 3.5 (-3.1)
Lib Dem 2.2 (+2.2)

North Yorkshire, Knaresborough

Lib Dem 54.9 (+19.2)
Con 35.2 (-3.0)
Lab 9.9 (-1.1)

Ind gain Gwynfi from Lab
Lib Dem gain Knaresborough from Con

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word here.

Rushcliffe, Gotham

Con 40.4 (-12.6)
Lab 31.3 (+7.3)
Ind 18.2
Lib Dem 7.2 (+7.2)
Green 2.8 (+2.8)

North Warwickshire, Newton Regis and Warton

Con 52.2 (+2.2)
Lab 47.8 (+20.1)

Knowsley, Halewood South

Lab 51.6 (+5.8)
Ind 39.7
Lib Dem 6.0 (+6.0)
Con 2.8 (-4.1)

East Hertfordshire, Watton-at-Stone

Lib Dem 67.0 (+67.0)
Con 30.1 (-36.3)
Lab 2.9 (-7.3)

Wirral, Bromborough

Lab 47.1 (-14.0)
Con 28.1 (+6.0)
Lib Dem 17.1 (+6.0)
Ind 5.5
Green 2.2 (-3.5)

Cornwall, Bude

Lib Dem 53.2 (+1.0)
Ind 25.0
Con 13.9 (-24.2)
Lab 7.8 (-1.9)

Lab hold Halewood South
Lib Dem gain Watton-at-Stone from Con

[ObserverIE]

Holy Syllable here.

Sevenoaks, Farningham, Horton Kirby & South Darenth

Con 55.7 (-3.3)
Lib Dem 26.7 (+26.7)
Lab 17.6 (-2.8)

[Tintrlvr]

It appears the lib Dems are winning over the "professional class" votes, the kind of votes David Cameron been trying so hard to win over back in 2005 ....

I mean, to some degree. This seat was Lib Dem-held in the aughts, though.

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word here.

Tameside, Ashton Victoria

Lab 52.5 (-4.9)
Green 26.4 (+12.7)
Con 21.1 (-7.8)

Fife, Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay

Con 37.3 (+0.7)
SNP 28.1 (-2.7)
Lab 12.0 (-4.8)
Lib Dem 9.1 (+4.1)
Ind Collins 8.4
Green 4.2 (+0.7)
Ind Macintyre 0.6
Lbt 0.2 (+0.2)

Con	2309	2312	2316	2330	2455	2615	2839
SNP	1741	1741	1744	1840	1950	2076	2327
Lab	744	746	747	794	867	1058
Lib Dem	566	568	573	631	738
Ind C	521	524	545	565
Green	257	257	258
Ind M	40	41
Lbt	13

Carlisle, Denton Holme

Lab 62.5 (+1.4)
Con 24.5 (-3.4)
Green 7.5 (-3.5)
UKIP 5.5 (+5.5)

Cumbria, Denton Holme

Lab 59.1 (-0.9)
Con 27.6 (+0.6)
Green 8.9 (+1.9)
UKIP 4.4 (-1.6)

Con gain Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay from Lab

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word here.

Charnwood, Birstall Wanlip (change in italics since May 2017 by-election)

Con 47.1 (+6.2) (+5.8)
Lab 32.6 (+5.1) (+9.9)
Lib Dem 12.3 (-19.3) (-20.0)
UKIP 4.8 (+4.8) (+4.8)
Green 3.3 (+3.3) (+3.3)

Pembrokeshire, Pembroke: St. Mary North

Ind Harvey 32.5 (-5.9)
Ind Bush 13.7
Ind Nutting 13.4
Lab 10.6 (-11.6)
Ind Boucher 10.2
Con 7.8 (-31.7)
Ind Edwards 7.3
Ind Williams 4.5

New Forest, Pennington

Con 42.0 (-11.6)
Lib Dem 37.6 (+11.5)
Ind 12.2
Lab 8.2 (-12.1)

Cambridge, Petersfield

Lab 47.9 (-10.4)
Lib Dem 36.4 (+16.4)
Green 9.4 (-3.5)
Con 6.3 (-2.5)

Maidstone, Headcorn

Con 57.3 (-17.5)
Lib Dem 34.1 (+19.6)
Lab 5.3 (-5.5)
Green 3.3 (+3.3)

Lambeth, Coldharbour

Lab 58.2 (+3.0)
Green 30.5 (+12.3)
Lib Dem 5.0 (+0.5)
Con 4.0 (-1.3)
WEP 1.6 (+1.6)
UKIP 0.7 (+0.7)

Ind gain Pembroke: St. Mary North from Con