How will the $250,000 or more demo. vote in 2018?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Atlas's favorite demographic to debate about. While being a small proportion of the voting block (just 6% in 2016) this group shifted considerably left in 2016. How will this group vote in 2016 in the House elections on the overall national level to the nearest whole number ?    

Past voting patterns
2016
House 57-41 GOP
President Tied 46-46
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I suspect that while this group will vote slightly more dem then normal individuals under the $250,000 will stay heavily Republican.

[Keep cool-idge]

6-9 points republican.

[Adam Griffin]

This brings up a question for me that I (embarrassingly) don't know: is exit poll income data based on individual income or household income?

Assuming this is individual income, it's worth noting two things:

• 2% of Americans make $250k
• These people may be an even larger share of voters in 2018 than in 2016

We don't have precise figures for $250k+, but $200k voters were supposedly 7% of the electorate in 2014 (which seems a bit low) and voted 57-42 in favor of Republicans.

Anyway, if I had to guess, I'd say a low single-digit GOP win.

[mvd10]

A 1-4% win for the Democrats, but they'll still vote to the right of the nation (as Democrats probably will win the house PV by quite a lot). These people don't like Trump and the current GOP. They'll probably also vote for Trump's opponent in 2020 unless it's Bernie (and even then they might). I think they'll return to the GOP in 2022 and beyond though.

[McGovernForPrez]

I think 1-6 points GOP is the most reasonable. A shift that large would be absolutely devastating for Republicans in suburban areas though.

[Stranger in a strange land]

This brings up a question for me that I (embarrassingly) don't know: is exit poll income data based on individual income or household income?

Assuming this is individual income, it's worth noting two things:

• 2% of Americans make $250k
• These people may be an even larger share of voters in 2018 than in 2016

We don't have precise figures for $250k+, but $200k voters were supposedly 7% of the electorate in 2014 (which seems a bit low) and voted 57-42 in favor of Republicans.

Anyway, if I had to guess, I'd say a low single-digit GOP win.

I have a feeling this is the kind of thing people lie to exit pollsters about.

[DemocraticKing]

A 1-4% win for the Democrats, but they'll still vote to the right of the nation (as Democrats probably will win the house PV by quite a lot). These people don't like Trump and the current GOP. They'll probably also vote for Trump's opponent in 2020 unless it's Bernie (and even then they might). I think they'll return to the GOP in 2022 and beyond though.

I'm not sure on post-trump. It depends on what path the party takes. If it remains archconservative and Trumpian, they won't recover with 250k + for a while. If they move to the center, focus on "pro-business" and go back to subtle dog whistles they can do better.