Roll Call: House Seats You Think Can't Flip but Might

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/house-seats-you-think-cant-flip-but-might

Stuart Rothenberg's list of 28 seats the Democrats might win beyond the 23 R-held Clinton districts:

11 districts that Trump won but Obama won twice:

IL-12
IA-1, IA-3
ME-2
MN-2
NJ-2, NJ-3
NY-1, NY-2, NY-19, NY-21

6 districts that Obama won once but Trump won with less than 50%:

IL-13, IL-14
MI-11
NE-2
PA-8
WA-3

And one that Obama won once and Trump won with just over 50%:

MI-8

3 districts to watch based on high-quality D challengers:

KS-2
KY-6
UT-4

7 more that could be competitive based on past performance:

NJ-11
NY-22, NY-23
OH-10
PA-15, PA-16
VA-2

[Pericles]

I already thought IL-12 was flippable. ME-02 is not a very hard pickup and is key on the path to a Democratic majority. Iowa could be in for at least Blum losing and perhaps a 3-1 Democratic delegation, which would fly in the face of the 'Titanium R Iowa' narrative. NJ-2 and 3 are also not that hard to pickup, MacArthur is more vulnerable but he is associated with the GOP healthcare plan and his seat isn't that Republican. IL-13 and 14 are also flippale. NE-02, especially with Ashford, is a likely pickup, and he beats Bacon 49-41 in the polls that have been taken. Pennsylvania could see a big change with 6, 7, 8, and 15 all tossups IMO and 18 may be possible in the special election. I'm not sure about MI-8 or WA-3, and NY-21 and 2 are probably reaches. I agree with the high quality Democratic challenger districts, but they should add SC-05(Archie Parnell-very underrated) and MT-AL(with a 13-point generic ballot lead rather than a 7-point one as at the time Gianforte would have either barely won or barely lost, and add in his controversies and a better Democrat and the seat flips). I'm not sure about GA-06 but Ossoff was not great and he would have won if the Democrats had as big a lead as they do now. Also as reaches are AK-AL and KS-03.