WV-03 - Does Ojeda (D) have a chance?

[LimoLiberal]

He seems like a pretty dynamic guy. And the seat's open, and in the most traditionally Democratic part of the state. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia%27s_3rd_congressional_district

Active twitter: https://twitter.com/Ojeda4congress?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Incredible story and video: http://voteojeda.com/

I don't have the official stats, but I'm positive that Justice won it easily in 2016 and Manchin won it as well in both of his senate runs. Kerry and Gore probably came reasonably close in their presidential runs, as well. Of course, Trump won it by like 60 points. But it is still a traditionally Democratic area.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Beat You to it.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273016.25

[McGovernForPrez]

Yeah he absolutely stands a chance. Ojeda won his state senate race in a seat that Trump simultaneously won by 60 points. Ojeda is fascinating because he manages to tie liberal issues into a strong cultural appeal to the people of southern West Virginia.He's a great fit for the district and so far all of the Republican candidates are terrible. The dude primaried Nick Rahall in 2014 and managed to get 34% of the vote, even winning his home county of Logan by 20 points.  The guy is seriously no featherweight. In fact even if the climate weren't so overwhelmingly favorable to Democrats in 2018 I still think he'd have a solid chance. I have this race currently as a tossup. The only thing making me worried is if Joe Manchin's wing of the WV Dems manages to meddle in the race. Manchin and Ojeda are on openly bad terms, and Ojeda has a primary opponent from that wing in the form of Huntington Mayor Steve Williams. Hopefully Ojeda won't be dragged down in a messy primary with him but it's entirely possible.

[LimoLiberal]

Beat You to it.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273016.25

Lol same title phrasing and all.

[Cactus Jack]

I'm amazed to see a legitimately sensible thread out of you, Limo.

In any case, Ojeda stands more than a slim chance, by my estimation. As McGovern said above, he blends firebrand left-wing issues into Appalachian culture perfectly - firmly standing by the safety net, framing himself as being pro-life instead of "just pro-birth" like Republicans, making a huge deal out of the opioid crisis, etc. That he's a veteran with a history of winning races that ought to have been stacked massively against him certainly doesn't hurt, either.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah he absolutely stands a chance. Ojeda won his state senate race in a seat that Trump simultaneously won by 60 points. Ojeda is fascinating because he manages to tie liberal issues into a strong cultural appeal to the people of southern West Virginia.He's a great fit for the district and so far all of the Republican candidates are terrible. The dude primaried Nick Rahall in 2014 and managed to get 34% of the vote, even winning his home county of Logan by 20 points.  The guy is seriously no featherweight. In fact even if the climate weren't so overwhelmingly favorable to Democrats in 2018 I still think he'd have a solid chance. I have this race currently as a tossup. The only thing making me worried is if Joe Manchin's wing of the WV Dems manages to meddle in the race. Manchin and Ojeda are on openly bad terms, and Ojeda has a primary opponent from that wing in the form of Huntington Mayor Steve Williams. Hopefully Ojeda won't be dragged down in a messy primary with him but it's entirely possible.

Why are they on bad terms? I'd say this is about Lean R right now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

People say he is decent about responses and gave his personal number out. You guys think we could try to get him to do a Q&A on here?

[Oryxslayer]

Only because it is an open seat - open seats swing more violently with the national mood than even traditional battleground seats.

As many others here have noted, he is running against a poor list of Republicans in a seat that Manchin at the top of the ticket should be winning by a substantial margin - even if he is destined to go down in defeat. I rate Likely R right now, but it is one that will move rapidly no doubt following the primary.

[Bidenworth2020]

People say he is decent about responses and gave his personal number out. You guys think we could try to get him to do a Q&A on here?

lmao, this ain't his crowd. at best he goes on AMA on reddit

[BuckeyeNut]

He doesn't even seem favored in his primary, despite being a very good recruit. His fundraising is piss poor. IDK why Moulton isn't flooding him with cash.

[DemocraticKing]

He doesn't even seem favored in his primary, despite being a very good recruit. His fundraising is piss poor. IDK why Moulton isn't flooding him with cash.

I don't think he had a lot of time before his first filing deadline. Once this quarter (ended on new years) get's posted we can see how he is doing.

[King Lear]

This is one of the safest Republican districts in America, any money Democrats spend on this district is money thrown down the drain that could be spent on the 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California that are all critical in any pathway to a Democratic House majority.

[IceSpear]

This is one of the safest Republican districts in America, any money Democrats spend on this district is money thrown down the drain that could be spent on the 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California that are all critical in any pathway to a Democratic House majority.

Also, the Democrats in the California districts probably aren't Trump voting DINOs, so that's a second bonus.