Maryland Dem Primary: Baker, Jealous, or Kamenetz?

[Cold War Liberal]

I do not like Ben Jealous at all. I can't stand Sandernistas, not because of their policies but the general way they conduct themselves (tending to value ideological purity rather than getting real results), and will not vote for him in the primary and will actively vote, campaign, and argue against him should he win the Democratic nomination. I would be 100% pro-Hogan should he win the nomination.

Isn't this quite literally the definition of "purity politics"?

No.

Don't get me wrong: The whole MUH PURITY thing you guys peddle is totally fallacious. After all, literally no one on the Left is demanding "ideological purity" or whatever.

That said, isn't saying that you'd vote for a right-winger who vetoed paid sick leave, ban the box, (etc.) over his Democratic opponent, all because said Democrat slightly differs from your favored primary candidate ideologically, a pretty clear example of so-called purity politics?

Bolded: no one on the left is demanding "ideological purity?" Wasn't that the entire point everyone who attacked Clinton from the left made, to point out that Clinton was too cozy with Wall Street or whatever? That she flip-flopped too much on things like gay marriage, the DAPL, and TPP? And look, that's partially (there were many, many things wrong with Clinton) responsible for the election of Donald Trump. Why else would you attack Clinton from the left when her opponent is Donald Trump if not to demand ideological purity? The criticisms were valid and I agreed with and made them myself, but it's undeniably possible that people turned off by these criticisms of her cost her the election, and gave us a morally abhorrent man who has already reshaped our nation for the negative for decades to come (e.g. with judicial nominees).

And no, I don't demand ideological purity, I demand candidates who speak for the majority of their electorate and aren't just people you vote for to vote against the other candidate. People who compromise when necessary to achieve actual policy wins rather than grandstand to win political points with their followers. I want results out of my elected officials, not just idealistic (read: unrealistic in this context) rhetoric. If I have to vote for the Republican, who's not a bad guy and who can't do anything conservative because of the legislature, to get that message across to the Democratic party then so be it.

Jealous is a much weaker candidate than Baker, and I find it difficult to imagine a scenario where he beats an incumbent with a 55%+ approval rating. Baker is a different story because he actually has a long record of public service with a number of tangible, objectively good (unless you don't like public education but love corruption in government and criminal justice/law enforcement) achievements. Jealous has none of that.

[Cold War Liberal]

NOTA.

In a state like Maryland, I feel like Maya Rockeymoore Cummings has the inside track because of who her husband is.

If not Baker or Jealous, then almost definitely Cummings will be the nominee. There will be those who are turned off by her last name, but they will almost entirely be Republicans anyway, which doesn't matter in a state that's 60%+ Democratic.

I feel like Cummings is Baker’s biggest threat, because she could draw away Baltimore’s black voters towards her in the primary.

I could see this happening, unfortunately; I think that would result in a Jealous victory in the primary.

[Jeppe]

I don’t think Jealous would even place in the top 3. He doesn’t have a strong base. There are 4 main voting bases in Maryland, up-scale white DC suburbs, heavily black Prince George, heavily black Baltimore city, and suburban whites living around Baltimore.

Baker will do best amongst Prince George Co voters, Cummings amongst Baltimore City voters, Kamanetz amongst Baltimore County voters, and probably amongst Montgomery County voters too. They all have a solid geographical/racial base, Jealous doesn’t really have that built-in advantage the other candidates do.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I don’t think Jealous would even place in the top 3. He doesn’t have a strong base. There are 4 main voting bases in Maryland, up-scale white DC suburbs, heavily black Prince George, heavily black Baltimore city, and suburban whites living around Baltimore.

Baker will do best amongst Prince George Co voters, Cummings amongst Baltimore City voters, Kamanetz amongst Baltimore County voters, and probably amongst Montgomery County voters too. They all have a solid geographical/racial base, Jealous doesn’t really have that built-in advantage the other candidates do.

I live in Howard County, which I expect to be a battleground in both the primary and the general. It's technically in the Baltimore metro, and most of its residents identify with Baltimore more than Washington. However, there are certain parts of Howard that are more like DC, most notably the southern portion. Right now, I'm gonna say it leans Kamenetz, but if his campaign goes nowhere, it would almost certainly vote for Baker.

As for the general, it's anyone's guess, but I'd say it would lean Democratic. Trump is very toxic here, and that should drive turnout among Democratic voters. Howard is considered Maryland's bellwether, so whoever wins it is almost certainly winning statewide.

[Cold War Liberal]

I don’t think Jealous would even place in the top 3. He doesn’t have a strong base. There are 4 main voting bases in Maryland, up-scale white DC suburbs, heavily black Prince George, heavily black Baltimore city, and suburban whites living around Baltimore.

Baker will do best amongst Prince George Co voters, Cummings amongst Baltimore City voters, Kamanetz amongst Baltimore County voters, and probably amongst Montgomery County voters too. They all have a solid geographical/racial base, Jealous doesn’t really have that built-in advantage the other candidates do.

I mostly agree with this.

[Cold War Liberal]

There hasn't been much recent polling, but this is the most recent I found:

(Mason-Dixon, conducted September 27-30, 2017. Sample size of 400, Margin of error: + or - 5%)

Dem Primary:
Rushern Baker: 28%
Kevin Kamenetz: 11%
Ben Jealous: 10%
Maya Rockeymoore Cummings: --- (not in this poll, but got 8% in a Goucher poll done a week or so before)
Richard Maladeno: 3%
Alec Ross: 1%
Krish Vignarajah: 1%
Jim Shea (perennial candidate): <1%
UNDECIDED: 46%

General Election:
(Mason-Dixon, sample size of 625, + or - 4%)

Hogan v. Baker:
Larry Hogan: 46%
Rushern Baker: 39%
Undecided: 15%

Hogan v. Jealous:
Larry Hogan: 49%
Ben Jealous: 33%
Undecided: 18%

Hogan v. Kamenetz:
Larry Hogan: 48%
Kevin Kamenetz: 35%
Undecided: 17%

Hogan v. Maladeno:
Larry Hogan: 49%
Richard Maladeno: 30%
Undecided: 21%

Baker is just a polling error and some undecideds away from the governor's mansion. Everyone else (possibly except Cummings, who was not polled) lags behind. Interestingly though, Hogan does not have a majority in any of the matchups, though he comes very close to 50% against Maladeno, Kamenetz, and, as I and several others have been saying, Jealous. From this data, I would agree that this is the best course for the MD Dems to take:

Baker > Kamenetz > Jealous