Maryland Dem Primary: Baker, Jealous, or Kamenetz?

[History505]

Those 3 candidates seem the likeliest to be the Dem nominee for governor in Maryland. Who do you think will win the June primary?

[brucejoel99]

IMO Baker, since he already appears to be the strongest contender in the primary (as he brings the most political experience to the crowded, wide-open field) & to have the best advantage in a possible matchup against Hogan (again, the experience, not to mention the ability and intelligence, to make MD a better state).

[PragmaticPopulist]

Baker. Combine his experience with having probably the most name recognition of the three. PG County is the second-largest county in the state.

[smoltchanov]

Baker > Kamenetz > Jealous

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I hope it is not Jealous, since he picked just about the worst Lt.-Gov candidate possible.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Baker > Kamenetz > Jealous

[heatcharger]

I'm going with Big Time Rush. Great executive track record. MGM National Harbor a huge success. 3700 new jobs.

Kamenetz is too unknown, as is Jealous. The latter will even lose frequent WaPo commenters who hate Trump with a burning passion but not enough to raise their taxes in MD -- the kind of people that secretly put Hogan over the top last time around.

[KingSweden]

Baker is clearly the best choice

[Frodo]

As far as Maryland is concerned, if Rushern Baker were to win the Democratic primary, would he be the first African American nominated for Governor?  And if he wins the general election against Gov. Larry Hogan, would he be the first African American to be elected Governor?  

[brucejoel99]

As far as Maryland is concerned, if Rushern Baker were to win the Democratic primary, would he be the first African American nominated for Governor?  And if he wins the general election against Gov. Larry Hogan, would he be the first African American to be elected Governor?  

No & yes, respectively.

1. No, Baker (or Ben Jealous, too) will not be the first African American nominated for Governor of MD if he were to win the Democratic primary. In MD, that honor goes to former Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, who became MD's first black nominee for Governor when he won the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2014, just 4 years ago.

2. MD has never elected a black Governor &, indeed, if either Baker or Jealous becomes Governor, then either will become just the 5th black governor (& only the 3rd ever elected) in U.S. history.

[Frodo]

As far as Maryland is concerned, if Rushern Baker were to win the Democratic primary, would he be the first African American nominated for Governor?  And if he wins the general election against Gov. Larry Hogan, would he be the first African American to be elected Governor?  

No & yes, respectively.

1. No, Baker (or Ben Jealous, too) will not be the first African American nominated for Governor of MD if he were to win the Democratic primary. In MD, that honor goes to former Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, who became MD's first black nominee for Governor when he won the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2014, just 4 years ago.

2. MD has never elected a black Governor &, indeed, if either Baker or Jealous becomes Governor, then either will become just the 5th black governor (& only the 3rd ever elected) in U.S. history.

Thanks -I can't believe I forgot about Tony. 

[henster]

As far as Maryland is concerned, if Rushern Baker were to win the Democratic primary, would he be the first African American nominated for Governor?  And if he wins the general election against Gov. Larry Hogan, would he be the first African American to be elected Governor?  

No & yes, respectively.

1. No, Baker (or Ben Jealous, too) will not be the first African American nominated for Governor of MD if he were to win the Democratic primary. In MD, that honor goes to former Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, who became MD's first black nominee for Governor when he won the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2014, just 4 years ago.

2. MD has never elected a black Governor &, indeed, if either Baker or Jealous becomes Governor, then either will become just the 5th black governor (& only the 3rd ever elected) in U.S. history.

Thanks -I can't believe I forgot about Tony. 

Despite Brown's historic candidacy he did nothing to boost black turnout, they turned out in greater numbers for O'Malley than him. So I'm skeptical Baker or Jealous can really make a difference, the Dem candidate will need to break through with whites in a major way.

[smoltchanov]

As far as Maryland is concerned, if Rushern Baker were to win the Democratic primary, would he be the first African American nominated for Governor?  And if he wins the general election against Gov. Larry Hogan, would he be the first African American to be elected Governor?  

No & yes, respectively.

1. No, Baker (or Ben Jealous, too) will not be the first African American nominated for Governor of MD if he were to win the Democratic primary. In MD, that honor goes to former Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, who became MD's first black nominee for Governor when he won the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2014, just 4 years ago.

2. MD has never elected a black Governor &, indeed, if either Baker or Jealous becomes Governor, then either will become just the 5th black governor (& only the 3rd ever elected) in U.S. history.

Thanks -I can't believe I forgot about Tony. 

Despite Brown's historic candidacy he did nothing to boost black turnout, they turned out in greater numbers for O'Malley than him. So I'm skeptical Baker or Jealous can really make a difference, the Dem candidate will need to break through with whites in a major way.

IMHO, two countertendencies exist in this race. Obviously, Democrats can't win on Black vote only, and need substantial white vote too. There are lots of white liberals in the state, and still - Democrats need moderates too. That's the first one. On the other hand, Hogan in 2014 has shown that moderate-to-pragmatic conservative Republican can win enough moderate votes too (or, at least, dampen Democratic showing among them, especially - against inept or too radical opponent). So, both sides will fight for votes in center and somewhat to the left of it (given general liberal leanings of Maryland). Those, who will be able to do it better - will win.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Strongly favor Baker, and I think he wins the primary, but loses to Hogan.

[brucejoel99]

As far as Maryland is concerned, if Rushern Baker were to win the Democratic primary, would he be the first African American nominated for Governor?  And if he wins the general election against Gov. Larry Hogan, would he be the first African American to be elected Governor?  

No & yes, respectively.

1. No, Baker (or Ben Jealous, too) will not be the first African American nominated for Governor of MD if he were to win the Democratic primary. In MD, that honor goes to former Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, who became MD's first black nominee for Governor when he won the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2014, just 4 years ago.

2. MD has never elected a black Governor &, indeed, if either Baker or Jealous becomes Governor, then either will become just the 5th black governor (& only the 3rd ever elected) in U.S. history.

Thanks -I can't believe I forgot about Tony. 

Np lol

[Cold War Liberal]

Baker is a kind, caring man with a great track record in PG county (anti-corruption, education, MGM, lower crime, etc.). I will vote for him in the primary. Will gladly vote for him in the general. I will definitely donate to his campaign and probably volunteer for it too. I am 100% pro-Baker.

I have lived here my entire life and was born in Baltimore and follow politics intensely and for fun but I have no idea who Kamenetz really is. I know he's a state senator and I'm like 70% sure he's gay but other than those two factoids I- wait I just Googled him and that's not even Kamenetz, that's Richard Maladeno. I have literally never heard of Kamenetz, and I live directly adjacent to Baltimore County and regularly visit various places within the County. I am by no means the be all end all of political candidate name recognition, and I do tend to pay a little more attention to national rather than state politics, but I don't think he'll win the primary based off the lack of name recognition alone. If he somehow does win the nomination, I'd be a swing voter.

I do not like Ben Jealous at all. I can't stand Sandernistas, not because of their policies but the general way they conduct themselves (tending to value ideological purity rather than getting real results), and will not vote for him in the primary and will actively vote, campaign, and argue against him should he win the Democratic nomination. I would be 100% pro-Hogan should he win the nomination.

Richard Maladeno is fine, if forgettable (see the section on Kamenetz above). I'd be a swing voter.

Alec Ross is kinda cool. I'm like 70% sure I'd vote for him over Hogan in a general.

Maya seems pretty cool too, though I admittedly don't know much about her. If, after some research, I continue to like her, I'm like 80% sure I'd vote for her over Hogan in a general.

Krishanti Vignarajah is interesting but I'm only like 70% sure I'd vote for her in a general because I like people with some real political experience (same issue I have with Ross).

Heather Mizeur is fine, I guess, if she runs and wins the nomination I'd probably vote for her over Hogan.

Joseline Peña-Melnyk is also fine.

Kenneth Ulman is blegh, if he runs and wins the nomination I'd be a swing voter.

Hogan is likeable. He works across the aisle (he inherently has to due to the state legislature's makeup) and seems to care about people and stuff. He is the only Republican I will even consider voting for in any election next year. I'm waiting for the Democratic nominee to be decided before deciding my own vote.

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks for detailed (not line or two)  info and analysis

[Chief Justice Keef]

Ben Jealous, and people shouldn't whine about it when it happens.

[KingSweden]

Baker is a kind, caring man with a great track record in PG county (anti-corruption, education, MGM, lower crime, etc.). I will vote for him in the primary. Will gladly vote for him in the general. I will definitely donate to his campaign and probably volunteer for it too. I am 100% pro-Baker.

I have lived here my entire life and was born in Baltimore and follow politics intensely and for fun but I have no idea who Kamenetz really is. I know he's a state senator and I'm like 70% sure he's gay but other than those two factoids I- wait I just Googled him and that's not even Kamenetz, that's Richard Maladeno. I have literally never heard of Kamenetz, and I live directly adjacent to Baltimore County and regularly visit various places within the County. I am by no means the be all end all of political candidate name recognition, and I do tend to pay a little more attention to national rather than state politics, but I don't think he'll win the primary based off the lack of name recognition alone. If he somehow does win the nomination, I'd be a swing voter.

I do not like Ben Jealous at all. I can't stand Sandernistas, not because of their policies but the general way they conduct themselves (tending to value ideological purity rather than getting real results), and will not vote for him in the primary and will actively vote, campaign, and argue against him should he win the Democratic nomination. I would be 100% pro-Hogan should he win the nomination.

Richard Maladeno is fine, if forgettable (see the section on Kamenetz above). I'd be a swing voter.

Alec Ross is kinda cool. I'm like 70% sure I'd vote for him over Hogan in a general.

Maya seems pretty cool too, though I admittedly don't know much about her. If, after some research, I continue to like her, I'm like 80% sure I'd vote for her over Hogan in a general.

Krishanti Vignarajah is interesting but I'm only like 70% sure I'd vote for her in a general because I like people with some real political experience (same issue I have with Ross).

Heather Mizeur is fine, I guess, if she runs and wins the nomination I'd probably vote for her over Hogan.

Joseline Peña-Melnyk is also fine.

Kenneth Ulman is blegh, if he runs and wins the nomination I'd be a swing voter.

Hogan is likeable. He works across the aisle (he inherently has to due to the state legislature's makeup) and seems to care about people and stuff. He is the only Republican I will even consider voting for in any election next year. I'm waiting for the Democratic nominee to be decided before deciding my own vote.

Would you say Baker is favored?

[Former Kentuckian]

It's hard for me to imagine Rushern Baker losing.

[Cold War Liberal]

Baker is a kind, caring man with a great track record in PG county (anti-corruption, education, MGM, lower crime, etc.). I will vote for him in the primary. Will gladly vote for him in the general. I will definitely donate to his campaign and probably volunteer for it too. I am 100% pro-Baker.

I have lived here my entire life and was born in Baltimore and follow politics intensely and for fun but I have no idea who Kamenetz really is. I know he's a state senator and I'm like 70% sure he's gay but other than those two factoids I- wait I just Googled him and that's not even Kamenetz, that's Richard Maladeno. I have literally never heard of Kamenetz, and I live directly adjacent to Baltimore County and regularly visit various places within the County. I am by no means the be all end all of political candidate name recognition, and I do tend to pay a little more attention to national rather than state politics, but I don't think he'll win the primary based off the lack of name recognition alone. If he somehow does win the nomination, I'd be a swing voter.

I do not like Ben Jealous at all. I can't stand Sandernistas, not because of their policies but the general way they conduct themselves (tending to value ideological purity rather than getting real results), and will not vote for him in the primary and will actively vote, campaign, and argue against him should he win the Democratic nomination. I would be 100% pro-Hogan should he win the nomination.

Richard Maladeno is fine, if forgettable (see the section on Kamenetz above). I'd be a swing voter.

Alec Ross is kinda cool. I'm like 70% sure I'd vote for him over Hogan in a general.

Maya seems pretty cool too, though I admittedly don't know much about her. If, after some research, I continue to like her, I'm like 80% sure I'd vote for her over Hogan in a general.

Krishanti Vignarajah is interesting but I'm only like 70% sure I'd vote for her in a general because I like people with some real political experience (same issue I have with Ross).

Heather Mizeur is fine, I guess, if she runs and wins the nomination I'd probably vote for her over Hogan.

Joseline Peña-Melnyk is also fine.

Kenneth Ulman is blegh, if he runs and wins the nomination I'd be a swing voter.

Hogan is likeable. He works across the aisle (he inherently has to due to the state legislature's makeup) and seems to care about people and stuff. He is the only Republican I will even consider voting for in any election next year. I'm waiting for the Democratic nominee to be decided before deciding my own vote.

Would you say Baker is favored?

Probably, though I've been asking around and it seems that the only people paying attention right now are those who actually care a lot about state politics. This may be because I live in a Republican area, where people don't have to think too hard about the Democratic primary because they're Republicans who plan on voting for Hogan.

Right now, I'd say Baker or Jealous wins the primary. I'd rate MD-GOV a tossup with Baker and Lean R with Jealous.

Hogan has purposefully kept as far away from Trump as humanly possible for a Republican governor, which means that while he'll probably be affected by what I feel is the impending Blue Wave, the effect will not be as large as if he supported Trump, and might not be enough to topple him if the Democratic nominee is not good. For instance, I am a MD Democrat who abhors Trump but generally likes (if not always agrees with) Hogan. I am open to voting for my governor, but not the President, in their reelection bids.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I'm okay with certain Sanders-style candidates, but Jealous strikes me as a Sanders-ite who is mostly just rhetoric rather than getting things done. I'm not entirely sure right now what I would do if he wins the primary.

[Cold War Liberal]

I do not like Ben Jealous at all. I can't stand Sandernistas, not because of their policies but the general way they conduct themselves (tending to value ideological purity rather than getting real results), and will not vote for him in the primary and will actively vote, campaign, and argue against him should he win the Democratic nomination. I would be 100% pro-Hogan should he win the nomination.

Isn't this quite literally the definition of "purity politics"?

No.

I'm okay with certain Sanders-style candidates, but Jealous strikes me as a Sanders-ite who is mostly just rhetoric rather than getting things done. I'm not entirely sure right now what I would do if he wins the primary.

This. He has no governing experience and thus no proven track record. By January of 2019, it will have been over 5 years since he last held any office of any kind; his most recent (and only) term in any kind of office was his term as President/CEO of the NAACP, which expired on 11/1/13.

[MAINEiac4434]

NOTA.

In a state like Maryland, I feel like Maya Rockeymoore Cummings has the inside track because of who her husband is.

[Jeppe]

NOTA.

In a state like Maryland, I feel like Maya Rockeymoore Cummings has the inside track because of who her husband is.

I feel like Cummings is Baker’s biggest threat, because she could draw away Baltimore’s black voters towards her in the primary.