PA redistricting, new maps next year?

[henster]

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/29/us/pennsylvania-republicans-gerrymander.html

The court is 5-2 Dem majority so it seems likely it would be inclined to strike down the maps. Huge implications for 2018.

[Devils30]

a more compact PA-6, 7 would make Meehan and Costello goners. PA-8 won't change much.

[junior chįmp]

Hypothetical map = GOP done!

[Oryxslayer]

Hypothetical map = GOP done!

LOL DKE changed their PA map again because they found a way to make seats even more democratic. I still don't understand why they cut Bucks when the county is nearly 1 CD with its pop, and it is going to be a swing seat no mater what. And they still rate more favorably for dems - there is little chance of that PA-11 being competitive, and there is only a slightly larger chance for that PA-12. And PA-15 would be competitive due to retirement....

Anyway, PA 15 would be changed starkly, making it a likely pickup now that the seat is open. PA 17 would become slightly more democratic (a Lakawanna + Luzurne + Monroe district is perfect in pop), probably protecting  Cartwright for a little bit until a more Rep year. PA 08 and 06 would remain competitive, albeit pushed closer to the center/left, and PA 07 would fall to the dems under any redistricted map.

[Bidenworth2020]

Hypothetical map = GOP done!

oh that is beautiful

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hypothetical map = GOP done!

oh that is beautiful

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Hypothetical map = GOP done!

As a Pennsylvanian, I can say I am VERY excited about this!

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Hypothetical map = GOP done!

As a Pennsylvanian, I can say I am VERY excited about this!

I'm not even a Pennsylvanian but I too am very excited about this.

[Bidenworth2020]

Hypothetical map = GOP done!

As a Pennsylvanian, I can say I am VERY excited about this!

I'm not even a Pennsylvanian but I too am very excited about this.

what a hot take

[junior chįmp]

Hypothetical map = GOP done!

As a Pennsylvanian, I can say I am VERY excited about this!

I'm not even a Pennsylvanian but I too am very excited about this.

what a hot take

Whew lads.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Hypothetical map = GOP done!

As a Pennsylvanian, I can say I am VERY excited about this!

I'm not even a Pennsylvanian but I too am very excited about this.

what a hot take

What is your problem?

[Keep cool-idge]

You can say it’s ( Gerrymandered) but Pennsylvania is a poor gerrymander. The gop’s plan to make PA-17 backfired and PA-6 PA-7 PA-8 were all close in 2016 heck Hillary won PA-6 and PA-7 maybe it’s more so just the democrats putting up awful candidates.

[GlobeSoc]

How much would a court redistricting here change dems' overall chances of taking the house?

[Bidenworth2020]

You can say it’s ( Gerrymandered) but Pennsylvania is a poor gerrymander. The gop’s plan to make PA-17 backfired and PA-6 PA-7 PA-8 were all close in 2016 heck Hillary won PA-6 and PA-7 maybe it’s more so just the democrats putting up awful candidates.

cartwright is a special case. There is pretty much no way to screw Peterson for example. In generic R vs. Generic D, the democrat loses 90% of the time.

[Virginiá]

How much would a court redistricting here change dems' overall chances of taking the house?

It depends both on what a new map would look like and how vulnerable you think PA-07, PA-06 and PA-08 already are. I'm skeptical that all 3 would go down (assuming none retire), so a non-partisan map could make it more likely for a net gain of 2-3 seats, as opposed to maybe 1 - 2 with the current map. Then again, if it's a D+12 midterm, all 3 could go down even with the same map.

I don't think it will be that consequential. It will help pad the majority, but if we really get a double digit House PV win, we're winning the House either way. The circumstances under which a new map would be more meaningful is if the midterm turned out to only be like D+6 - 7, where every vulnerable seat matters and a hypothetical majority might end up being 218 or 219, in which case sweeping these 3 seats would matter a great deal.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cartwright would have beat Toomey. Thankfully he is young enough to do it in 2022.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If we had a fair map:

District 17 would probably become less vulnerable.
District 12 would probably become competitive.
District 16 would probably become not-competitive.
District 7 would probably become more vulnerable.
District 6 would probably become more vulnerable.
Other Districts would see little partisan change.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

How much would a court redistricting here change dems' overall chances of taking the house?

Could be big. My prediction is around D+22 right now and with a neutral map that probably means Meehan is gone, Dent's seat flips and probably Costello's as well, which would make for D+25 and a Dem takeover. Those all could flip anyway but the map change makes Dem pickups in PA all but certain.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

18 could be competitive when redistricted (especially with Lamb running again in 2018 if he loses the special election) because it would now contain extremely liberal and blue-collar constituencies like Monroeville, Penn Hills and Penn Trafford. Eastern Pittsburgh boroughs.

[GlobeSoc]

18 could be competitive when redistricted (especially with Lamb running again in 2018 if he loses the special election) because it would now contain extremely liberal and blue-collar constituencies like Monroeville, Penn Hills and Penn Trafford. Eastern Pittsburgh boroughs.

If he wins?

[henster]

So is it possible to draw a fair looking Democratic gerrymander? These are partisan judges we're talking about.

[windjammer]

So is it possible to draw a fair looking Democratic gerrymander? These are partisan judges we're talking about.

I think it will be replaced by a neutral map, and not by a dem gerrymander.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So is it possible to draw a fair looking Democratic gerrymander? These are partisan judges we're talking about.

I think it will be replaced by a neutral map, and not by a dem gerrymander.

[windjammer]

How much would a court redistricting here change dems' overall chances of taking the house?

Could be big. My prediction is around D+22 right now and with a neutral map that probably means Meehan is gone, Dent's seat flips and probably Costello's as well, which would make for D+25 and a Dem takeover. Those all could flip anyway but the map change makes Dem pickups in PA all but certain.

Well, if the dailykos map is a good prediction for what will be happening:
-PA06 and PA07 are likely dem pick up.
-PA08, PA15 and PA12 become more vulnerable.

It would probably end up in 3 or 4 pick ups for the dems.

[Oryxslayer]

How much would a court redistricting here change dems' overall chances of taking the house?

Could be big. My prediction is around D+22 right now and with a neutral map that probably means Meehan is gone, Dent's seat flips and probably Costello's as well, which would make for D+25 and a Dem takeover. Those all could flip anyway but the map change makes Dem pickups in PA all but certain.

Well, if the dailykos map is a good prediction for what will be happening:
-PA06 and PA07 are likely dem pick up.
-PA08, PA15 and PA12 become more vulnerable.

It would probably end up in 3 or 4 pick ups for the dems.

Nah, your being to freindly to team democrat. PA's geography hates the Democrats and Kos, like the hacks they are, are being overly friendly to the democrats.

PA-07 becomes a safe dem.pickup. The new seat should be entirely within Delaware, with a small 80K ish extension into one of its neighbors. Without PA-01 functioning as a AA pack for Delaware (which is fine if the court orders two BVAP seat, though the pop isn't there for it) the seat becomes over D+10.

PA-06 is an oddity. Depending of how the new lines go, and weather the district is based out of Chester or Berks, it could be anywhere from R+3 to D+2.

PA-16 Becomes Safe R, now well over R+10 with the entirety of Lancaster.

PA -08 Won't change much. DKE I have found has this weird fetish with cutting Bucks, despite the county being close to perfect pop for one CD. A fair map won't cut the county and instead ad 70Kish votes from Montgomery or Philadelphia. These can create a district that maintains the present R+3 or pushes it to EVEN.

PA-13 could become much less Democratic, depending on which parts of Montgomery it is made of. Still safe D, but it could move all the way to D+7.

PA-15 is where the map cganges are going to favor the Democrats. The seat moves from a R+4 seat stretched across mid-central PA to a tight seat in the Lehigh Valley. Lehigh + Bethlehem is itself a moderatly D leaning group, however it needs about 60K from a neighbor. This moves the district to the right, around R+1. Considering the seat is open, this becomes one of the easier D pickups nationwide.

PA-17 moves slightly to the left. The 2010 district was drawn as a D pack for an incumbent based out of Schuylkill. Except he lost to Cartwright who had a base in the new D heavy Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. If Cartwright was the incumbent in 2010, PA-17 would have included more D areas like Allentown instead of Schuylkill. Schuylkill is what seat the seat so far to the right in 2016. A fair seat would be Monroe+Lackawanna+Luzurne, which is perfect pop. Such a seat voted 2 points less Trump then the current iteration, though it still voted Right. It would have a even PVI, and Cartwright would be safe until the environment becomes less Democratic.

PA-14 remains a unofficial D pack in Allegheny. Dems are packed in to the Pittsburgh area, and the Pittsburgh seat naturally takes in all these areas.

DKE is lying to you about PA-12 and PA-11. Their versions wpuld themselves be around R+7/10, and totally safe R in most circumstances. Pa-11 is open, so perhaps it has a chance of competitiveness. Overall, best case scenario for Dems is a Tied delegation, and worst case is a pickup of 1