My New Proposed Arkansas 2nd CD
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  My New Proposed Arkansas 2nd CD
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Question: Is My Proposed Arkansas 2nd CD an FF or HP idea?
#1
FF, I am a democrat
#2
HP, I am a democrat
#3
FF, I am a republican
#4
HP, I am a republican
#5
FF, I am an independent
#6
HP, I am an independent
#7
FF, I am other
#8
HP, I am other
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Author Topic: My New Proposed Arkansas 2nd CD  (Read 1458 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
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« on: December 30, 2017, 05:08:16 AM »
« edited: December 30, 2017, 05:39:59 AM by Bagel23 »

Now I know this will not happen in Arkansas since the solid GOP state legislature would never let it happen, but I think this new version of Arkansas 2nd CD is fair. The GOP dominates the state, but it should not be to the point of 100% GOP congressional representation. The democrats usually get 30-35% of the PV statewide here like all the time, so having 3 Safe R seats and 1 Likely D seat seems like a much fairer scenario than 4 Safe R seats. Democrats in AR are no driving force, but their numbers are still big enough to call for one likely congressional seat, much like MS or LA. African Americans in AR also deserve some representation too. My new Arkansas 2nd CD is around a D+5 district that is around 36% African American, and a little over 60% White. The boundaries within it gave Hillary Clinton about 54.5% last year, and Obama slightly over 55.2% in 2012. It has around 650k people in it, but it is not final, and boundries can shift some too. My point was to give some sort of a rough sketch of what a somewhat orderly and fair likely democratic congressional district in Arkansas should look like. The congressional district is filled in yellow on the map below. Let me know what you think!

PS, if this were real, my favorite to have the seat would be Democrat and State Rep Charles Blake, of AR HD 36, in Pulaski County, towards more suburban parts of Little Rock.

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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2017, 06:03:45 AM »

this is a great rough outline, considering blacks are 26% of the states population
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Doimper
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« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2017, 08:18:44 AM »

This is the kind of district the legislature should've drawn up in 2010. Arkansas Democrats didn't realize how hard and fast they'd fall, I guess.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2017, 10:30:43 AM »

This is the kind of district the legislature should've drawn up in 2010. Arkansas Democrats didn't realize how hard and fast they'd fall, I guess.

+100. Obviously somewhat gerrymandered district (almost all Democratic-leaning territory gathered here), but - the best Democrat could hope after 2010. Instead they lost everything, trying for more.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2017, 11:30:22 AM »

This is the kind of district the legislature should've drawn up in 2010. Arkansas Democrats didn't realize how hard and fast they'd fall, I guess.

+100. Obviously somewhat gerrymandered district (almost all Democratic-leaning territory gathered here), but - the best Democrat could hope after 2010. Instead they lost everything, trying for more.

It is a little gerrymandered, but nothing compared to Maryland, Pennsylvania, Texas, etc. It also balances the state fairly well and gives it a more accurate representation in congress, it's not like I'm tipping the balance to some unfair and ridiculous amount like other far uglier and way more ridiculous gerrymandering jobs, it is simply achieving a fairer representation of Arkansas.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5 on: December 30, 2017, 11:44:16 AM »

This is the kind of district the legislature should've drawn up in 2010. Arkansas Democrats didn't realize how hard and fast they'd fall, I guess.

+100. Obviously somewhat gerrymandered district (almost all Democratic-leaning territory gathered here), but - the best Democrat could hope after 2010. Instead they lost everything, trying for more.

It is a little gerrymandered, but nothing compared to Maryland, Pennsylvania, Texas, etc. It also balances the state fairly well and gives it a more accurate representation in congress, it's not like I'm tipping the balance to some unfair and ridiculous amount like other far uglier and way more ridiculous gerrymandering jobs, it is simply achieving a fairer representation of Arkansas.

Of course. But in order to give Democrats "a fairer representation" you still gerrymandered a bit - it could be done (in present realities) only by gathering most of Democratic-leaning territory in one (this) district. Of course - it's milder gerrymandering then in Maryland, Pennsylvania and so on.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #6 on: December 30, 2017, 11:52:19 AM »

This is the kind of district the legislature should've drawn up in 2010. Arkansas Democrats didn't realize how hard and fast they'd fall, I guess.

+100. Obviously somewhat gerrymandered district (almost all Democratic-leaning territory gathered here), but - the best Democrat could hope after 2010. Instead they lost everything, trying for more.

Fair enough.
It is a little gerrymandered, but nothing compared to Maryland, Pennsylvania, Texas, etc. It also balances the state fairly well and gives it a more accurate representation in congress, it's not like I'm tipping the balance to some unfair and ridiculous amount like other far uglier and way more ridiculous gerrymandering jobs, it is simply achieving a fairer representation of Arkansas.

Of course. But in order to give Democrats "a fairer representation" you still gerrymandered a bit - it could be done (in present realities) only by gathering most of Democratic-leaning territory in one (this) district. Of course - it's milder gerrymandering then in Maryland, Pennsylvania and so on.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #7 on: December 30, 2017, 12:03:08 PM »

Arkansas Democrats didn't draw this district in 2010 because the caucus was still mainly white and did not want to flip over to an Alabama-type party structure with their redistricting.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8 on: December 30, 2017, 12:43:26 PM »

Arkansas Democrats gerrymandered the districts in such a manner because they wanted a bleached Congressional delegation where the white liberals would thrive. Now for some reason they don't like their own districts.
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2017, 12:47:20 PM »

Arkansas Democrats gerrymandered the districts in such a manner because they wanted a bleached Congressional delegation where the white liberals would thrive. Now for some reason they don't like their own districts.

Are you sure Arkansas Democrats made a gerrymander for white liberals?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2017, 01:00:21 PM »

Arkansas Democrats gerrymandered the districts in such a manner because they wanted a bleached Congressional delegation where the white liberals would thrive. Now for some reason they don't like their own districts.

Are you sure Arkansas Democrats made a gerrymander for white liberals?

Well, yes. Arkansas Congressional districts were historically drawn with whole counties. The Democrats decided to undertake what at the time was unprecedented gerrymandering of the state.

Some of the other proposals included gouging the city of Fayetteville out of the 3rd district and placing it in the 4th district to help a white liberal hold that seat. The people of Fayetteville were not happy with being treated like cattle, and that particular proposal failed in the State Senate.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #11 on: December 30, 2017, 01:37:43 PM »

I mean I'm ngl that district looks atrocious in comparison to the real ones lol

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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #12 on: December 30, 2017, 02:12:56 PM »

To people votinng HP, do you think that a 100% AR GOP congressional delegation is ok, or is there another alternative you have in mind?
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #13 on: December 30, 2017, 02:15:23 PM »

To people votinng HP, do you think that a 100% AR GOP congressional delegation is ok, or is there another alternative you have in mind?
They may be voting HP because they strongly dislike you as a person.
I think this is a great proposal, but I also strongly dislike you as a poster.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #14 on: December 30, 2017, 02:37:22 PM »

To people votinng HP, do you think that a 100% AR GOP congressional delegation is ok, or is there another alternative you have in mind?
They may be voting HP because they strongly dislike you as a person.
I think this is a great proposal, but I also strongly dislike you as a poster.

Thanks I guess... but more republicans here actually like me (comparatively) than democrats so the numbers don't make sense for that.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: December 30, 2017, 02:53:23 PM »

To people votinng HP, do you think that a 100% AR GOP congressional delegation is ok, or is there another alternative you have in mind?
They may be voting HP because they strongly dislike you as a person.
I think this is a great proposal, but I also strongly dislike you as a poster.

Thanks I guess... but more republicans here actually like me (comparatively) than democrats so the numbers don't make sense for that.
FWIW, I voted FF.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #16 on: December 30, 2017, 02:54:09 PM »

To people votinng HP, do you think that a 100% AR GOP congressional delegation is ok, or is there another alternative you have in mind?
They may be voting HP because they strongly dislike you as a person.
I think this is a great proposal, but I also strongly dislike you as a poster.

Thanks I guess... but more republicans here actually like me (comparatively) than democrats so the numbers don't make sense for that.
FWIW, I voted FF.

Thank you.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #17 on: December 30, 2017, 03:08:01 PM »

I voted HP (I actually only slightly dislike it) because I didn't like how it was drawn. I think districts should be as "clean" as possible. If it was gerrymandered a bit less I would like it.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #18 on: December 30, 2017, 03:52:50 PM »

Is this district built with 2010 or 2020 population in mind?
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jamestroll
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« Reply #19 on: December 30, 2017, 04:21:07 PM »

The whole irony is that at some point Arkansas 03 may be in play if trends continue.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #20 on: December 30, 2017, 04:24:00 PM »

The whole irony is that at some point Arkansas 03 may be in play if trends continue.
I seriously doubt that.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #21 on: December 30, 2017, 04:42:13 PM »



49 population deviation (2010).

D+4.12
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #22 on: December 30, 2017, 04:44:22 PM »

Is this district built with 2010 or 2020 population in mind?

More 2010 based but I used some '16 projections too. It could be modified too, like Solid did a knock up job with his map.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #23 on: December 30, 2017, 04:45:25 PM »



49 population deviation (2010).

D+4.12

I like it!
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #24 on: December 30, 2017, 04:50:40 PM »

The whole irony is that at some point Arkansas 03 may be in play if trends continue.
I seriously doubt that.
I don’t, entirely. AR-3 includes Fort Smith, Van Buren, and the “urban/suburban” angle. This is where the Arkansas Rockefellers have always done the strongest, and an economically moderate Democrat could do well. There’s a strong evangelical group, but there is also a bit of a professional class and minority areas growing, as well as a growing young adults/college presence.
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