PA-18: Who will win?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I live very close to this district and I can tell you that Conor Lamb has a real good chance at winning this seat. He is the perfect fit for the district and Rick Saccone is a bumbling idiot who tries too hard to be like Trump... a name that has soured in PA since the election.

Who do you think will win? I feel like Conor is going to pull off a win. He's the perfect candidate the Dems needed to run in Western PA and they scored big.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Likely R.

[Cactus Jack]

I'll err on the side of caution and vote Saccone, but nothing would surprise me at this point. Conor definitely isn't a sacrificial Lamb.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'll air on the side of caution and vote Saccone, but nothing would surprise me at this point. Conor definitely isn't a sacrificial Lamb.

Pun intended?

[Mike Thick]

Saccone will win 89-5, then introduce a Constitutional Amendment to designate Trump as God-Emperor of America which passes unanimously on the back of the TAX REFORM BUMP

[Cactus Jack]

I'll air on the side of caution and vote Saccone, but nothing would surprise me at this point. Conor definitely isn't a sacrificial Lamb.

Pun intended?

Pun absolutely intended.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Right now I say Saccone 55-45.

[King Lear]

Very Safe R. Saccone will win 62-37 with Tax Reform Bump.

LimoLiberals totally right on this one.

[VPH]

Saccone wins 52-48, but Lamb shows that Dems can reclaim some blue-collar small town voters.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Very Safe R. Saccone will win 62-37 with Tax Reform Bump.

LimoLiberals totally right on this one.

Like how he was totally right in Virgina and Alabama-Senate? Oh wait, he got Virgina wrong by 12 points, and Alabama wrong by over 20 points.

You know King Lear, it looks mighty suspicious to respond to your sock.

[Mr. Smith]

I don't recall the GOP winning everything after Coakley, so I won't give Dems an overzealous optimism now.

[King Lear]

I don't recall the GOP winning everything after Coakley, so I won't give Dems an overzealous optimism now.

I Totally agree with this analysis, just because a party wins some fluke election doesn’t mean the party is guaranteed to win a bunch of races in states and districts where the party has no support.

[Young Conservative]

Saccone wins easily, but not in a landslide. He wins by about 10 points.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean R, Saccone probaly wins near 53-45.

[Figueira]

I think Saccone wins but I'm not confident in that.

[Mike Thick]

Saccone 53-47 sounds about right.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Saccone 53-47 sounds about right.

Seriously Ted? Now Saccone is going to win 63-37 like LimoLiberal said.

[Mike Thick]

Saccone 53-47 sounds about right.

Seriously Ted? Now Saccone is going to win 63-37 like LimoLiberal said.

Subject to further changes.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Saccone 53-47 sounds about right.

*52-48

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully, Democrats with a redrawn redistricting map

[Brittain33]

Note that Casey defeated Santorum in this district by 10 points in 2006. The district was R+3 relative to statewide if I'm calculating that right (Santorum got 3 percentage points better here than statewide). Santorum, of course, was from the area while Casey was from the opposite part of the state.

This gives me some hope that if the maps have reset somewhat from the anti-Clinton/Obama map we had in '16, there's some latent openness to voting Democratic here.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DSifF_MW0Ac0sJQ.png

[Oryxslayer]

Note that Casey defeated Santorum in this district by 10 points in 2006. The district was R+3 relative to statewide if I'm calculating that right (Santorum got 3 percentage points better here than statewide). Santorum, of course, was from the area while Casey was from the opposite part of the state.

This gives me some hope that if the maps have reset somewhat from the anti-Clinton/Obama map we had in '16, there's some latent openness to voting Democratic here.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DSifF_MW0Ac0sJQ.png

But that was back when this region was a democratic stronghold. Clinton won the three counties south of Allegheny by strong margins, and he was merely the most recent Dem to gain this region. By Gore and Kerry's time this region was already leaving the Democratic party, though it would only be in 2004 when a D lost one of the three counties. If there was any latent Dem support here, it was in 2010/12 when Casey and Sestack won one of the three counties.

If you are a Democrat hoping for a win here (very unlikely) you should place your bets on the three favorable fundamentals:

-Open seats swing wildly with the enviornment
-Special election swing even more wildly with the environment
-Open seats opened by sexual or political misconduct the to swing even more wildly

The twin open seats in NY in 2011 offer a good picture of this phenomenon: are hardcore D seat in NYC backs team R, and the most R seat in the state elects a democratic representative.

[IceSpear]

Very Safe R. Saccone will win 62-37 with Tax Reform Bump.

LimoLiberals totally right on this one.

Like how he was totally right in Virgina and Alabama-Senate? Oh wait, he got Virgina wrong by 12 points, and Alabama wrong by over 20 points.

You know King Lear, it looks mighty suspicious to respond to your sock.

Actually he was off by 30 points.

Bumping by prediction up to 60-33 Moore due to recent events including Jones' disastrous racist mailer, Jones' support for abortion, and the exposure of the forgery of the yearbook signature.

[Kamala]

With a wing and a prayer, Lamb.