Roy Moore considering run for Alabama governor/AG

[Pericles]

Moore will be lucky if he does as well as Coakley.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts_gubernatorial_election,_2014

[MM876]

Given that he's now apparently the worst candidate in Alabama, I hope he runs for a position other than governor. I doubt Moore would win against Ivey in a primary; to my knowledge the only really bad thing she's done as governor is endorse Roy Moore. Any other seat has got to be a godsend for Alabama Dems.

[Vega]

Him being branded a loser after losing the Senate race is far more harmful to his chances than being a pedophile, especially in the primary. I doubt you would even see Bannon actively backing him again, which would leave him in a really bad spot.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Him being branded a loser after losing the Senate race is far more harmful to his chances than being a pedophile, especially in the primary. I doubt you would even see Bannon actively backing him again, which would leave him in a really bad spot.

GOP primary voters might still vote for him because he can spin a narrative that the election was rigged and he was robbed of it, though.

[Deblano]

He should consider running to prison for child molestation.

[Grassroots]

Oh my god he is the rotten tomato of my party. He should just end his political career and just go back to doing what pedophiles do.

[MAINEiac4434]

Oh my god he is the rotten tomato of my party. He should just end his political career and just go back to doing what pedophiles do.

If there is one thing he should definitely not do, it’s that.

[Doimper]

Oh my god he is the rotten tomato of my party. He should just end his political career and just go back to doing what pedophiles do.

If there is one thing he should definite not do, it’s that.

[NevadanAtHeart]

I doubt he would win another primary after all he had very mixed success in past races and that was before a) sexual misconduct allegations being made against him b) losing a federal statewide race in Alabama. Both of the last two factors will probably hamper his future electoral chances.

Danny Tarkanian, and the republican tendency to shout "FAKE NEWS" at everything agree.

Yeah, Danny Tarkanian isn't exactly a successful candidate...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh my god he is the rotten tomato of my party. He should just end his political career and just go back to doing what pedophiles do.

If there is one thing he should definite not do, it’s that.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Absent the sexual allegations, Moore would have won the special election.  Not by much, but he would have won.  Had he won, he'd likely have been re-elected in 2020, although his ideosyncratic views and his interpersonal style of dealing with people would have made him enemies.

The sexual stuff is out there.  The part that's damning hasn't been proven, but is put forth by the most credible victim (IMO).  The other allegations are for acts that were not illegal in any way, but they portray Moore as a 30-something with an interest in girls getting ready to graduate high school, but not there yet, and there's the trolling stories that can't be flattering. 

The only way Moore could be elected is if all of that were proven to be some sort of covert operation aimed at destroying him and his candidacy.  Have such things happened?  Yes, they have.  But that won't be enough for Moore; he'll have to actually prove that what happened to him was a covert smear, concocted by his enemies and folks that wanted to block his election.  There's no evidence right now that this is the case, and even if that were so, I doubt Moore could ever prove this to the satisfaction of the voters he needs to get elected in Alabama.

But what if Moore actually became able to effectively dispel the allegations against him as false?  It's probably that folks would then vote against him because they find his views too extreme, even for Alabama, and/or they find his persona unappealing, even without the allegations.  Still, folks do have natural tendencies to want to "right a wrong".  I don't think that even all of that could elect Moore, even in Alabama, but that's the only blueprint for future electoral success he has.

[BuckeyeNut]

Doug Jones' Black turnout would have to be replicated to defeat Moore, and Cobb doesn't have a tie to the community like Jones does. Though she might perform even better with whites, and that could balance out.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

I wonder what excuse Republicans would come up with to vote for Moore over Cobb. The cop-out abortion excuse won't hold up.

"Joseph and Mary was 30 and 15. Condemning moore means condemning JESUS!"

[IceSpear]

Oh my god he is the rotten tomato of my party. He should just end his political career and just go back to doing what pedophiles do.

If there is one thing he should definite not do, it’s that.

On the bright side, running for office will keep him distracted from running after little girls.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

https://twitter.com/vaughnhillyard/status/948568885657329665

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From ~10 AM eastern

[Grassroots]

Oh my god he is the rotten tomato of my party. He should just end his political career and just go back to doing what pedophiles do.

If there is one thing he should definite not do, it’s that.

Lol

[un]

He's the Hillary Clinton of the insane far-right wingers. Let him run again.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/vaughnhillyard/status/948568885657329665

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From ~10 AM eastern

If he won the nomination, could this be a competitive seat?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

https://twitter.com/vaughnhillyard/status/948568885657329665

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From ~10 AM eastern

If he won the nomination, could this be a competitive seat?

No

He won it by double digits in the special election.

[Tartarus Sauce]

https://twitter.com/vaughnhillyard/status/948568885657329665

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From ~10 AM eastern

If he won the nomination, could this be a competitive seat?

It's really difficult to see how, it takes in too much of Southeastern Alabama to be viable and most of the black parts of Montgomery are excised into the neighboring 7th. Maybe if there was a young, dynamic, pro-life Democrat based out of Dothan, but I don't think such a candidate exists.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

A democrat did win AL-02 in 2008... except it was Bobby Bright, who then proceeded to turn into a Republican right after he lost in 2010.

So no, that district is not competitive lol.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Assuming Moore did run here and actually dethroned Roby, Republicans might try to dislodge him when they redraw the districts. Alabama will lose a district in the next round of redistricting, and if I had to guess the 4th is the one that would get the axe, but if the GOP really wanted a more establishment-reliable incumbent in the seat than Moore, they could redraw the 2nd to be mostly based around a corridor that took in the full metropolitan area of Montgomery rather than cutting it up and then extend it to Auburn and Phenix City. That would give friendlier territory for an establishment Republican to run in. Dothan and Enterprise could then get swallowed up by the Mobile-anchored 1st. Granted, this would make the 2nd be around R+6-8 so it would also be more vulnerable to being picked up by the Democrats in a bad year or if the seat were open.

Even if Moore doesn't decide to pull the trigger in the 2nd or loses a primary if he does, it seems to me that having a district anchored by the Wiregrass region is just asking for a stream of anti-establishment Republican bombthrowers to get churned out in the near future.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I hear that Moore has money woes.   If so,  a losing race may bring in money to pay old debts.   

[Alabama_Indy10]

Assuming Moore did run here and actually dethroned Roby, Republicans might try to dislodge him when they redraw the districts. Alabama will lose a district in the next round of redistricting, and if I had to guess the 4th is the one that would get the axe, but if the GOP really wanted a more establishment-reliable incumbent in the seat than Moore, they could redraw the 2nd to be mostly based around a corridor that took in the full metropolitan area of Montgomery rather than cutting it up and then extend it to Auburn and Phenix City. That would give friendlier territory for an establishment Republican to run in. Dothan and Enterprise could then get swallowed up by the Mobile-anchored 1st. Granted, this would make the 2nd be around R+6-8 so it would also be more vulnerable to being picked up by the Democrats in a bad year or if the seat were open.

Even if Moore doesn't decide to pull the trigger in the 2nd or loses a primary if he does, it seems to me that having a district anchored by the Wiregrass region is just asking for a stream of anti-establishment Republican bombthrowers to get churned out in the near future.

Moore doesn't live in the 2nd district. It's his campaign manager, Rich Hobson, that is running.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I hear that Moore has money woes.   If so,  a losing race may bring in money to pay old debts.   

I feel really bad for any sucker that donates to the sore loser/pedophile/lawless judge.