Indiana SEN - Will Donnelly's vote against the tax overhaul cost him reelection?

[UWS]

Indiana Senator Joe Donnelly has a reputation of favoring tax cuts. But recently he voted against the Trump Administration's tax reform while a poll indicated that 41 percent of Indiana voters would be less likely to vote for Donnelly if he opposed the tax plan, versus 33 percent who said they would be more likely. Could Donnelly's vote against this tax overhoul doom his re-election chances in a strongly conservative state like Indiana and boost his potential Republican senatorial opponents in 2018?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Donnelly#Economic_policy

https://votesmart.org/bill/24168/62173/34212/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act#.WkCdAXkiHIU

[junior chįmp]

His tax vote won't matter since the majority of voters either think it's a scam or are too apathetic to care. Elections are not won over single policy issues like tax cuts.

[Young Conservative]

He already had a steep climb and this hurts. Contrary to his colleague Senator McCaskill, he almost certainly won solely because of his opponent's insensitive comment about women.

[junior chįmp]

He already had a steep climb and this hurts. Contrary to his colleague Senator McCaskill, he almost certainly won solely because of his opponent's insensitive comment about women.

Good thing you guys nominated 20 time sexual assaulter Donald Trump as your party standard bearer to help your image

[Mike Thick]

He would be much worse off if he had voted for it.

[LimoLiberal]

Indiana Senator Joe Donnelly has a reputation of favoring tax cuts. But recently he voted against the Trump Administration's tax reform while a poll indicated that 41 percent of Indiana voters would be less likely to vote for Donnelly if he opposed the tax plan, versus 33 percent who said they would be more likely. Could Donnelly's vote against this tax overhoul doom his re-election chances in a strongly conservative state like Indiana and boost his potential Republican senatorial opponents in 2018?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Donnelly#Economic_policy

https://votesmart.org/bill/24168/62173/34212/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act#.WkCdAXkiHIU

Where is that poll coming from? Have a source?

[Cactus Jack]

Not when the entire bill is about as popular as a turd in the Christmas punch bowl.

[Xing]

He would be much worse off if he had voted for it.

[Former Kentuckian]

If he loses, it won't be because of his vote on the GOP tax bill

[Antonio the Sixth]

He would be much worse off if he had voted for it.

[UncleSam]

If he ends up losing in a close race the. I think it'll be fair to say that this whole tax bill thing is probably the reason why. Democrats can meme that this is a 'tax hike on the poor' and whatever other falsehoods but in red states this is and will be extremely popular. Donnelly and Manchin will both have problems as a result of this.

However, it is very possible that the national environment or subpar opposition will drag one or both of them over the finish line. I think the tax bill will be a small net negative but shouldn't be an albatross, and will only really hurt Donnelly in a close race imo.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Have a source for that poll? Regardless, if Donnelly loses, his lack of support for this tax bill won't be the reason why. He was in a lose-lose situation here definitely. If he votes for his, he will lose a lot of left-wing/moderate support in favor of a primary challenge or just staying home. People were already outraged about the Gorsuch vote, so this would've been no bueno.

I still think this race is a toss-up. Until any polling showing Donnelly in a bad spot comes out, I'll trust the extremely favorable environment, good polls and his (anecdotally) good reputation in Indiana, even among conservative voters.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If he loses, it won't be because of his vote on the GOP tax bill

[YE]

This bill has a 33% approval. It's not extremely popular. And if you think in red states it's popular, let me ask you this. If someone running for president had won 33% of the two party vote, how many states would he or she win?

[BuckeyeNut]

He would be much worse off if he had voted for it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

He would be much worse off if he had voted for it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Maybe, but if he voted for it, he might not have even made it past the primary. Buttigieg would have entered and probably would win the primary.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

This wouldn't matter. Elections are won and lost these days based on turning out your base of core supporters and demotivating the opponent's supporters. Voting against the bill feeds the base and the sheer unpopularity of the bill won't motivate Republicans to turn out to get rid of Donnelly for it.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Not when the entire bill is about as popular as a turd in the Christmas punch bowl.

A lot of my family in rural white Alabama don't even like the tax bill. A lot of them said they felt screwed by the GOP / Trump.

My mom tried for like 10 minutes to convince them the plan was good to no avail.

[KingSweden]

If he ends up losing in a close race the. I think it'll be fair to say that this whole tax bill thing is probably the reason why. Democrats can meme that this is a 'tax hike on the poor' and whatever other falsehoods but in red states this is and will be extremely popular. Donnelly and Manchin will both have problems as a result of this.

However, it is very possible that the national environment or subpar opposition will drag one or both of them over the finish line. I think the tax bill will be a small net negative but shouldn't be an albatross, and will only really hurt Donnelly in a close race imo.

This is fair analysis. I think Donnelly is a good fit for the state and survives, but this is decent analysis.

[BuckeyeNut]

Maybe, but if he voted for it, he might not have even made it past the primary. Buttigieg would have entered and probably would win the primary.

Hahahahaha. No. Buttigieg wouldn't primary Donelly. He's much more interested in executive office. He's probably gunning for Governor in 2020.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If he ends up losing in a close race the. I think it'll be fair to say that this whole tax bill thing is probably the reason why. Democrats can meme that this is a 'tax hike on the poor' and whatever other falsehoods but in red states this is and will be extremely popular. Donnelly and Manchin will both have problems as a result of this.

However, it is very possible that the national environment or subpar opposition will drag one or both of them over the finish line. I think the tax bill will be a small net negative but shouldn't be an albatross, and will only really hurt Donnelly in a close race imo.

This is fair analysis. I think Donnelly is a good fit for the state and survives, but this is decent analysis.

No it's not. Any #analysis premised on the tax bill being popular is wishful thinking at best and patent falsehood at worst.

[IceSpear]

If he loses, it won't be because of his vote on the GOP tax bill

[MAINEiac4434]

No, it’ll help him.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Voting for Trump's tax cut would have been a great way for Donnelly to depress turnout among the 40% of Democrats he needs to win.