FL-GOV: Who wins?

[Greedo punched first]

Who wins the general in Florida?

[junior chįmp]

Graham with Gillium as Lt. Gov is the winning ticket imo

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Who wins the general in Florida?

Lean Graham.

[Donerail]

Hard to see this as anything better than Lean R. Putnam's got a massive money lead and is better-known and a more seasoned campaigner than Graham.

[Dr. MB]

I'm really disappointed John Morgan didn't enter. Putnam in a normal year, but I think the Dem will win if it's a wave.

[Del Tachi]

Putnam

[Bidenworth2020]

Hard to see this as anything better than Lean R. Putnam's got a massive money lead and is better-known and a more seasoned campaigner than Graham.

incumbent congressman Steve Southerland agrees.

[Cactus Jack]

Graham with Gillium as Lt. Gov is the winning ticket imo

[Blair]

I have the feeling that it will be talked up as a close race, but will see a relatively comfortable win by Putnam, after which everyone will say 'well yeah it was obviously going to happen.''

[Landslide Lyndon]

Has Putnam ever ran a competitive general election? Is he really THAT popular and well-know among Floridians? If the answer is no, then I don't see why people are so bullish on him.

Yes, he seems to be an inoffensive generic Republican type of candidate. But in an environment this toxic and in a state that can hardly be called Trump-friendly, he should be considered an even bet.
Not to mention that Graham, unlike him, has proven her political chops by unseating an incumbent during a terrible year for her party, and her last name still counts for something.

[UWS]

Adam Putnam

[Orser67]

Tough one, in that I expect a good Democratic year but Republicans seem to have the much stronger state party. I'd say it's tilt D right now.

[Donerail]

Has Putnam ever ran a competitive general election?

Putnam faced credible opponents in his 2000 (well-funded auto dealer Mike Stedem) and 2008 bids for Congress (veteran Scott Tudor), as well as in his 2010 statewide bid for ag commissioner (former Tallahassee Mayor and FDP chair Scott Maddox).

Is he really THAT popular and well-know among Floridians? If the answer is no, then I don't see why people are so bullish on him.

He spent pretty decently on advertising statewide in both his 2010 and 2014 campaigns. Among other perks of the job, the ag commissioner's name is also on every gas pump in Florida.

Not to mention that Graham, unlike him, has proven her political chops by unseating an incumbent during a terrible year for her party, and her last name still counts for something.

Her last names counts for less than it would in most other states, and less and less every year.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Has Putnam ever ran a competitive general election?

Putnam faced credible opponents in his 2000 (well-funded auto dealer Mike Stedem) and 2008 bids for Congress (veteran Scott Tudor), as well as in his 2010 statewide bid for ag commissioner (former Tallahassee Mayor and FDP chair Scott Maddox).

From what I see his closest race was decided by 15 points. Not exactly a nail-biter.
Now, this might be because he is a formidable candidate, because his district was Republican-leaning, or because his statewide wins came during super-favorable GOP years.
My point remains, he never had to run a tight race with the wind in his face.

For the rest I trust you because as a Floridian you know things much better.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tilt Putnam, but I would not be surprised if Graham did, as I have endorsed her, and it is in my sig.

[Former Kentuckian]

Graham with Gillium as Lt. Gov is the winning ticket imo

I wish they'd combine on a ticket

[windjammer]

I'm confident Graham will win. She won tough races and Trump is going to be at 35% in FL

[Donerail]

Graham with Gillium as Lt. Gov is the winning ticket imo

I wish they'd combine on a ticket

This is probably not a good call for regional diversity reasons. Having both members of the ticket from the same city (especially when that city is Tallahassee) is not ideal for a ticket that'll be overwhelmingly dependent on getting votes from central and south Florida. I'd expect Graham's Lt. Gov. pick to be someone like former Miami Mayor Manny Diaz or former Rep. Kendrick Meek — add racial diversity, but also someone with connections to your largest chunk of voters.

[Young Conservative]

Hard to see this as anything better than Lean R. Putnam's got a massive money lead and is better-known and a more seasoned campaigner than Graham.

incumbent congressman Steve Southerland agrees.

Graham outspent Southerland

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2014&id=FL02

[Xing]

My guess is it's another heart-breaker for Democrats, i.e. Putnam by 1-2.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

My guess is it's another heart-breaker for Democrats, i.e. Putnam by 1-2.

I support Graham, but she's far from a lock. 

[Coldstream]

Gwen Graham, fairly comfortably something like 5-6 pts . And when she wins people will all say it was obvious because of national environment, her name etc

[smoltchanov]

Hope for Graham.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hard to see this as anything better than Lean R. Putnam's got a massive money lead and is better-known and a more seasoned campaigner than Graham.

incumbent congressman Steve Southerland agrees.

Graham outspent Southerland

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2014&id=FL02

Is that supposed to be a negative for Graham?

[DemocraticKing]

[/quote]
incumbent congressman Steve Southerland agrees.
[/quote]
Graham outspent Southerland


[/quote]

Is that supposed to be a negative for Graham?
[/quote]

Exactly, she managed to outspend and defeat an incumbent Republican in 2014. That's no small feat.