Do Republicans stand a chance against Senator Tina Smith?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Should the RNC even spend a dime on the MN-special election? I find it very hard to believe that Smith could lose while Klobuchar, at the same time, would curb-stomp her republican opponent. Plus this is going to be a blue tsunami year and it seems like Smith is a pretty popular Lieutenant governor.

[OneJ]

Likely little chance that the GOP would hypothetically win.

[Cactus Jack]

Not a chance. I prognosticate that MN is going to be one of those Trump swing states that snaps hard back to the Democrats.

[I’m not Stu]

The GOP could win, but Smith would be favored, especially with a strong incumbent like Klobuchar on the ballot.

[Kamala]

Honesty I think anything less than Safe D is mistaken. Even if Smith dies, Klobuchar will drag her corpse across the finish line.

[Holmes]

If it was 2014, maybe.

[Mike Thick]

Do they stand a chance? Yes, especially with a strong recruit like Pawlenty, and considering that Smith has never actually won an election in her own right. Is it a substantial chance? Probably not, but it's a chance nonetheless.

[Skunk]

In a Trump midterm with a popular incumbent like Klobuchar sharing the ballot? Lol no.

[Former Kentuckian]

Honesty I think anything less than Safe D is mistaken. Even if Smith dies, Klobuchar will drag her corpse across the finish line.

Agreed. Klobuchar has consistently been one of the most popular members of Congress since election. This year alone, her approval ratings have ranged from 59% to 72%:

https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/31/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-october-2017/

startribune.com/klobuchar-franken-both-get-high-marks-from-minnesotans/420822683/

And Smith herself is no slouch: https://www.minnpost.com/politics-policy/2016/05/why-there-has-never-been-lieutenant-governor-tina-smith

Smith's own appeal combined with riding Klobuchar's coat-tails, she should be fine.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Do they stand a chance? Yes, especially with a strong recruit like Pawlenty, and considering that Smith has never actually won an election in her own right. Is it a substantial chance? Probably not, but it's a chance nonetheless.

Has Pawlenty even expressed interest in the race? Him running would be a GOP wet dream but he (obviosly) won't do it, especially in a year like 2018 where incumbent republicans are actually ditching capitol hill in preparation for a Republican bloodbath.

[King Lear]

I rate this seat Likely D, If Democrats manage to lose this then their heading for extinction.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

No and Pawlenty is a washed up has been who is basically a solid b-lister.

[QAnonKelly]

The RNC and such aren’t going to waste the money to support someone to try to win a seat that’s up the same time as Klobuchar. It’s just not worth it

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not in a D+12 political environment.

[UncleSam]

A chance? Yes, obviously.

A good chance? Not even close.

Pawlenty could make this Lean D maybe but when he most likely declines it'll be Likely and close to Safe D.

[Minnesota Mike]

A chance? Yes, obviously.

A good chance? Not even close.

Pawlenty could make this Lean D maybe but when he most likely declines it'll be Likely and close to Safe D.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Pawlenty runs he will be this cycle's Evan Bayh. A washed-up big name who hasn't ran a campaign for more than a decade and during the intervening years worked as a lobbyist for banks and credit card companies.
On top of that, Pawlenty was never really popular in Minnesota. He never took a majority of the vote statewide.

[MAINEiac4434]

I mean, Tina could be exposed as someone who gets handsy...

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Nah. Safe D.

[DemocraticKing]

Likely D if not Safe.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Depends on who runs. I don't want to discount Pawlenty's chances, the guy won in 2006 on the same day that Klobuchar won her first term by 20%.

[Former Kentuckian]

Depends on who runs. I don't want to discount Pawlenty's chances, the guy won in 2006 on the same day that Klobuchar won her first term by 20%.

Pawlenty barely won reelection (by less than one point) because of a popular third party candidate and because the Democratic nominee was stupid enough to argue with and lash out at reporters (he called one reporter a "Republican whore"). Pawlenty got lucky.

[Mike Thick]

Depends on who runs. I don't want to discount Pawlenty's chances, the guy won in 2006 on the same day that Klobuchar won her first term by 20%.

Pawlenty barely won reelection (by less than one point) because of a popular third party candidate and because the Democratic nominee was stupid enough to argue with and lash out at reporters (he called one reporter a "Republican whore"). Pawlenty got lucky.

It takes more than luck to win in that kind of a state in that kind of national environment — plus, he was polling within a few points of Hatch before the incident you mentioned.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Depends on who runs. I don't want to discount Pawlenty's chances, the guy won in 2006 on the same day that Klobuchar won her first term by 20%.

Pawlenty barely won reelection (by less than one point) because of a popular third party candidate and because the Democratic nominee was stupid enough to argue with and lash out at reporters (he called one reporter a "Republican whore"). Pawlenty got lucky.

It takes more than luck to win in that kind of a state in that kind of national environment — plus, he was polling within a few points of Hatch before the incident you mentioned.

Barely eking out a win as an incumbent when everything went right for you in the last weeks of the campaign =/= somehow unseating a Democratic incumbent in a lean D State with a D+12 national generic ballot.

[IceSpear]

If it was a special election, they might as well try. Since it's happening at the same time as all the others, they shouldn't bother. Way better targets to focus on.