Current House Rating?

[MAINEiac4434]

My IQ is 138, how high is yours?

Let me guess, Little Lear is nine inches, too.

Like I haven’t heard that one before.

He speaks like he’s really insecure about his intelligence and manhood.

[Devout Centrist]

My IQ is 138, how high is yours?

eharding, stop

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

My IQ is 138, how high is yours?

Let me guess, Little Lear is nine inches, too.

Like I haven’t heard that one before.

Let us right now mark the night Kamala nearly killed me via the sudden inhalation of iced tea.

[King Lear]

Just to clarify, my current house forecast still is D+10, with the caveat that under the right circumstances democrats still have a pathway to a house majority. The main reason I have my forecast at D+10 is because I firmly believe democrats will flip the 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California due to republicans getting locked out of the senate and governor runoffs, I also firmly believe democrats are the favorites in the two south Florida Clinton-Republican districts, the two open Clinton-Republican districts in Washington and Arizona, along with in Comsocks, Coffmans, and Hurds districts. Meanwhile Republicans are the favorites to flip the three double-digit Trump-Democratic districts in Minnesota and the double-digit Trump-Democratic district in Pennsylvania. For democrats to actually flip the house their going to have to win even more Clinton-Republican districts plus a few Trump-Republican districts, preferably some of those in New York and New Jersey that will be feeling some negative effects of the tax bill, this is by no means easy but is definitely not impossible, however I'm not willing to go around and claim the house is already won because doing so will help lead things down the same road they went last year.

But like I have been saying, it will be very hard to justify going forward with an "almost victory.

I'm impressed that someone realizes that the only way next year can be a wave for democrats is if they gain control of one or both chambers. This "moral victory" crap is not going to work in the long run if democrats plan on remaining a viable political party.

[nerd73]

Lean D, closer to Tilt than to Likely. I think Democrats are favored in 2018, but the advantage is not insurmountable. Pickups are somewhere around D+25 to D+35.

[Bidenworth2020]

Moving my prediction to Safe R after seeing the Tax Reform Bump Trump has received in Gallup.

D+2

Kek

[Orser67]

Lean D. Pretty much exactly between tossup and likely d. So like, a 60% chance.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

My IQ is 138, how high is yours?

Let me guess, Little Lear is nine inches, too.

Like I haven’t heard that one before.

You win the internet.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moving my prediction to Safe R after seeing the Tax Reform Bump Trump has received in Gallup.

D+2

Kek

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I mean, I was skeptical the dems would win anything also. After we lost everything in 2016 it just seemed hopeless and I didn't trust polling. But after VA and Alabama, things are looking up and I have accepted that my worry was for naught. Your just being really ridiculous Lear!

[Nyvin]

Moving my prediction to Safe R after seeing the Tax Reform Bump Trump has received in Gallup.

D+2

I'm sure Trump is thrilled with his -16 rating.

[UncleSam]

Tilt D. D+25.

[Devout Centrist]

Safe D; net pickup anywhere from 30-80 seats

[King Lear]

Safe D; net pickup anywhere from 30-80 seats

How on earth can any serious person believe the house is "Safe D" when Trump won 230 congressional districts to Clintons 205 congressional districts, meaning for democrats to flip the house they need to sweep as many of the 23 Clinton-Republican districts as possible, hold all the 12 Trump-Democratic districts, and win a few marginal Trump-Republican districts. This means that if democrats win the house majority it will be a narrow majority of 220 seats or so not some massive 80 seat gain that involves democrats flipping seats trump won by double-digits which will never happen in this polarized climate.

[Nyvin]

Safe D; net pickup anywhere from 30-80 seats

How on earth can any serious person believe the house is "Safe D" when Trump won 230 congressional districts to Clintons 205 congressional districts, meaning for democrats to flip the house they need to sweep as many of the 23 Clinton-Republican districts as possible, hold all the 12 Trump-Democratic districts, and win a few marginal Trump-Republican districts. This means that if democrats win the house majority it will be a narrow majority of 220 seats or so not some massive 80 seat gain that involves democrats flipping seats trump won by double-digits which will never happen in this polarized climate.

In 2008,  John McCain won 178 districts.

[King Lear]

Safe D; net pickup anywhere from 30-80 seats

How on earth can any serious person believe the house is "Safe D" when Trump won 230 congressional districts to Clintons 205 congressional districts, meaning for democrats to flip the house they need to sweep as many of the 23 Clinton-Republican districts as possible, hold all the 12 Trump-Democratic districts, and win a few marginal Trump-Republican districts. This means that if democrats win the house majority it will be a narrow majority of 220 seats or so not some massive 80 seat gain that involves democrats flipping seats trump won by double-digits which will never happen in this polarized climate.

In 2008,  John McCain won 178 districts.

That was a fluke election that occurred with an economic crash and the first black presidential nominee running and getting historic black turnout that will probably never be seen again.

[Devout Centrist]

IIRC, George W. Bush won ~230 Districts in '04.

[King Lear]

IIRC, George W. Bush won ~230 Districts in '04.

That was in a era of significantly less polarization down the ballot, remember back then democrats still held most of the congressional districts in Appalachia, and held many white districts in the Deep South that are simply unwinnable today.

[Devout Centrist]

IIRC, George W. Bush won ~230 Districts in '04.

That was in a era of significantly less polarization down the ballot, remember back then democrats still held most of the congressional districts in Appalachia, and held many white districts in the Deep South that are simply unwinnable today.

How many times are you going to use the, "it was a different era" excuse?

If you were a poster in 2005, you'd loudly proclaim that the Democrats were doomed because Bush won a dozen or so Democratic districts.

[Nyvin]

IIRC, George W. Bush won ~230 Districts in '04.

That was in a era of significantly less polarization down the ballot, remember back then democrats still held most of the congressional districts in Appalachia, and held many white districts in the Deep South that are simply unwinnable today.

Okay....so exactly what precedent are you going by that Democrats can't possibly win much more than what Clinton won in 2016?   Why exactly are you so hyper confident about this presumption? 

What is your source?   What are you statistics?    Where is anything but your ignorant opinion on the matter?   

Apparently recent history serves no purpose to you.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

2004 Bush-Democrat Districts: 40
2004 Kerry-Republican Districts: 18

2016 Trump-Democrat Districts: 12 (or more if the PA-18 or OH-12 specials go as desired)
2016 Clinton-Republican Districts: 23

2006 Deficit: 15
2018 Deficit: 24 (or less if the PA-18 or OH-12 specials go as desired)

[Bidenworth2020]

all dems need to do is clinton pub districts +1

[Brittain33]

That was a fluke election that occurred with an economic crash and the first black presidential nominee running and getting historic black turnout that will probably never be seen again.

Well, God knows there's nothing flukish around Donald Trump defeating Hillary Clinton when losing the popular vote by 3 million votes.

[King Lear]

That was a fluke election that occurred with an economic crash and the first black presidential nominee running and getting historic black turnout that will probably never be seen again.

Well, God knows there's nothing flukish around Donald Trump defeating Hillary Clinton when losing the popular vote by 3 million votes.

The 2016 election results were just a continuation of the trends that started in the 2000 and 2004 elections which were Appalachia, the rust belt, and the south getting more Republican, while the west coast, the northeast, and places like Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico getting more Democratic. For example 2000 was the first election since Reagen where republicans swept the south (they would do the same in 2016 with the exception of Virginia), and the first election since Reagan were Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin trended sharply to the republicans (they would go on to win all those states in 2016), while the 2004 election showed the first warning signs that Virginia was about to go Democratic (republicans losing Fairfax county) and it showed the strengthening of republican margins in white working class county's across America (these margins would get out of control in 2016) and it was the election where republicans would come closest to flipping the three rust belt states until they won all three in the 2016 election. This shows that the 2000 and 2004 elections showed most of the trends that would lead to the shocking map of 2016 instead of the 2008 and 2012 elections that were extremely flukish due to the presence of the first black president on the ballot.

[super6646]

Still too early to say anything. I believe CNN had the democrats up nearly 20% in their generic polling during the 2006 midterms, and it ended up being closer to 8%. While I'm not dismissing how bad the situation is for the GOP right now, I really don't want to trust generic polling as of right now until I see polling in actual house districts. Until then, our conversations are really just conjuncture, though if I had to guess today, I would rate the house as probably tilt-D, but no better than toss-up. Depending on the legislative success/ failure of the GOP in 2018, and the state of domestic affairs in the nation, this rating could change in either direction.