Current House Rating?

[Bidenworth2020]

Likely D, closer to safe than lean.

The overconfidence is mind blowing, you’d think people would learn from last year.

Yet it's equally hard to take you seriously when you're constantly reminding everyone that people vote entirely on racial lines (no), Trump's approval will never decline in states or districts he won (it already has), and that accusations made against people you like are fake (please leave).

well stated.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Turnout is the name of the game, and as we've seen in the special elections, Democrats are far exceeding Republicans in that juncture. Although they are special elections for a reason, Democratic turnout in those areas has almost been maximized and Republican turnout has been very weak. Will the Trump base turnout when he's not on the ballot? It's hard to say, but based off of what we know now, I'd say no.

However, we still have awhile to go. While I still think that the tax bill will be a negative for House Republicans, it's possible that it'll just be a wash. The GOP also may have a popular infrastructure package or something to improve their likeliness of keeping the house.

Regardless, right now I feel like it would be foolish to expect the GOP to negate the ridiculous margins that they're already seeing in the generic ballot, but it's certainly possible. It's so far out that it's really hard to definitively predict either way what will happen, but right now the Democrats are the favorites to win the house based on what I've seen. Lean D.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Likely R. The tax reform surge has been catching liberals off-guard and will lead to a crushing 2018.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

For people who do not see Dems taking over the House, I am curious what circumstances you would consider required to believe Republicans would lose the House. It is hard for me to envision the situation getting much worse than this for Republicans, but it's also hard for me to imagine Republicans being the majority party in the House of Representatives for eternity.

It really comes down to the seat math. The circumstances for Republicans to lose the House are there and are probably about as bad as it gets, but 24 pickups is still a tall order. I am definitely trying to be cautious here rather than forecasting D+30 without knowing numerous paths to that number. No one party ever wins every single tossup race, even in 2006 or 2010, and it won't be enough to have 30 tossup races because Democrats most likely won't win all of those. By "getting worse for Rs" I mean in terms of more and more retirements like Reichert and LoBiondo, which I expect in the coming months. Once it becomes clear that those types of seats are Safe D and people like Denham, Knight and Issa are not only in trouble but DOA, then I will forecast Dems to win the House. I keep it Tilt R out of caution more than anything.

But what about the generic ballot polls ranging from +10 (Morning Consult, most pro-R poll) to an exuberant +18 on CNN?

Those are definitely very concerning but as I said I want to see the concrete proof in terms of seats before projecting the chamber to flip.

I didn't project the Senate to flip in 2014 until October I believe, and I expect the House situation to worsen before that. In my view, Tilt R a year out from the election is a very bad position to be in once the generic ballot numbers you mentioned start manifesting themselves in previously safe and likely R seats becoming competitive. But until they do, I'm not comfortable calling the House to flip.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Likely R. The tax reform surge has been catching liberals off-guard and will lead to a crushing 2018.

My thinking as well. Rs could potentially have a net gain by picking off D held Trump districts.

Yeah, because on of the least popular presidents in history will definitely make gains in a midterm... something that has never happened before.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Likely R. The tax reform surge has been catching liberals off-guard and will lead to a crushing 2018.

My thinking as well. Rs could potentially have a net gain by picking off D held Trump districts.

This is definitely a possibility that liberals really need to pay more attention to. MN-01 and Peterson's district are incredibly vulnerable. I honestly don't really see any districts that democrats can pick up. Maybe FL-26, but Florida dems just underperformed Hillary Clinton in a special election by 10%. After the tax reform surge, this will be more like 20-25%, so even winning FL-26 is pretty unlikely.

The DNC's terrible fundraising numbers are going to hurt hard when all the GOP incumbents are going to be lavished with millions and millions of dollars by thankful donors. Trump's movement is going to become much stronger once people see an extra $1,000 in their paycheck. I really can't state enough how big this tax reform surge will be. Not to mention expanding infrastructure is going to be extremely popular with the american people.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Likely R. The tax reform surge has been catching liberals off-guard and will lead to a crushing 2018.

My thinking as well. Rs could potentially have a net gain by picking off D held Trump districts.

This is definitely a possibility that liberals really need to pay more attention to. MN-01 and Peterson's district are incredibly vulnerable. I honestly don't really see any districts that democrats can pick up. Maybe FL-26, but Florida dems just underperformed Hillary Clinton in a special election by 10%. After the tax reform surge, this will be more like 20-25%, so even winning FL-26 is pretty unlikely.

The DNC's terrible fundraising numbers are going to hurt hard when all the GOP incumbents are going to be lavished with millions and millions of dollars by thankful donors. Trump's movement is going to become much stronger once people see an extra $1,000 in their paycheck. I really can't state enough how big this tax reform surge will be. Not to mention expanding infrastructure is going to be extremely popular with the american people.

*Face palm*

I'm getting really tired saying this to you two: There is NO WAY the GOP is going to have a positive midterm no matter the outcome of the tax reform. There are too many negatives working against them and people just don't give a sh**t about this tax bill they passed.

Trolling or not, I am not going to listen to the guy who thought an overcast in Northern Virginia handed Gillespie the governorship.

[junior chįmp]

Likely R. The tax reform surge has been catching liberals off-guard and will lead to a crushing 2018.

My thinking as well. Rs could potentially have a net gain by picking off D held Trump districts.

This is definitely a possibility that liberals really need to pay more attention to. MN-01 and Peterson's district are incredibly vulnerable. I honestly don't really see any districts that democrats can pick up. Maybe FL-26, but Florida dems just underperformed Hillary Clinton in a special election by 10%. After the tax reform surge, this will be more like 20-25%, so even winning FL-26 is pretty unlikely.

The DNC's terrible fundraising numbers are going to hurt hard when all the GOP incumbents are going to be lavished with millions and millions of dollars by thankful donors. Trump's movement is going to become much stronger once people see an extra $1,000 in their paycheck. I really can't state enough how big this tax reform surge will be. Not to mention expanding infrastructure is going to be extremely popular with the american people.

Don't forget Trump bringing about a peaceful resolution to the War on Christmas

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Don't forget Trump bringing about a peaceful resolution to the War on Christmas

This is definitely a big win in the heartland in true America. I just went to a christimas party in rural Alabama and we all talked about how Trump is amazing and how he saved Santa Clause.

(FYI LimoLiberal I'm mocking you for 1) being dumb and 2) being a troll. Cut your garbage out. I'm not totally sure dems will win the house, but it's looking pretty damn likely now. We all know you aren't a liberal and are just faking it.)

Reminder: LimoLiberal thought Gillespie would win and that Roy Moore would win by 20%.

[King Lear]

Likely R. The tax reform surge has been catching liberals off-guard and will lead to a crushing 2018.

My thinking as well. Rs could potentially have a net gain by picking off D held Trump districts.

This is definitely a possibility that liberals really need to pay more attention to. MN-01 and Peterson's district are incredibly vulnerable. I honestly don't really see any districts that democrats can pick up. Maybe FL-26, but Florida dems just underperformed Hillary Clinton in a special election by 10%. After the tax reform surge, this will be more like 20-25%, so even winning FL-26 is pretty unlikely.

The DNC's terrible fundraising numbers are going to hurt hard when all the GOP incumbents are going to be lavished with millions and millions of dollars by thankful donors. Trump's movement is going to become much stronger once people see an extra $1,000 in their paycheck. I really can't state enough how big this tax reform surge will be. Not to mention expanding infrastructure is going to be extremely popular with the american people.

You guys have a point, I'm under the assumption Democrats will gain the 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California because I believe republicans are going to be locked out of the Senate and Governor races their, but if I'm wrong and a republican makes one of those runoffs then the republicans could hold 4 of those districts, I'm also under the assumption that democrats put up strong candidates in the two south Florida districts if they don't republicans could hold those as well because of ballot-splitting Cubans, theirs also two Trump-democratic districts in Nevada and New Hampshire democrats could potentially lose, and they may fail to pickup the two open Clinton-Republican districts in Washington and Arizona. If all these thing go wrong then my House results projection could drop from D+10 to Even. This would mean the House is Safe R instead of Lean R.

[smoltchanov]

One small notice, guys. When you speak about 10, 12, 18% national advantage Democrats now have in the polls, it's not a swing size, it's an absolute size of advantage  (or disadvantage) in every district that matters. And this absolute percentage advantage is non-uniformly distributed: you may have even D+70 in Harlem or South Bronx-based districts, and, say, D-35  or 40 in TX-13 or AL-06. The "focus" is that Democrats have substantially more districts with "big pluses", and these "pluses" itself are substantially bigger, then "minuses" in corresponding Republican disticts. So, swing districts may be only "somewhat Democratic" (say, D+6) now, despite big national numbers. Mathematics allows it...

As i said: if i will see these numbers Oct. 1st - i will be sure in Democrats retaking the House. But - not yet.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

You guys have a point, I'm under the assumption Democrats will gain the 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California because I believe republicans are going to be locked out of the Senate and Governor races their, but if I'm wrong and a republican makes one of those runoffs then the republicans could hold 4 of those districts, I'm also under the assumption that democrats put up strong candidates in the two south Florida districts if they don't republicans could hold those as well because of ballot-splitting Cubans, theirs also two Trump-democratic districts in Nevada and New Hampshire democrats could potentially lose, and they may fail to pickup the two open Clinton-Republican districts in Washington and Arizona. If all these thing go wrong then my House results projection could drop from D+10 to Even. This would mean the House is Safe R instead of Lean R.

You and LimoLiberal realize I was joking right? Oh wait, you guys don't care because you're a sock of LimoLiberal and LimoLiberal is a troll.

If you're going to troll, at least be like ahugecat and be an obvious republican hack.

There's healthy skepticism (IceSpear and PNM before Alabama), and then there is blatant concern trolling like you two.

[King Lear]

You guys have a point, I'm under the assumption Democrats will gain the 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California because I believe republicans are going to be locked out of the Senate and Governor races their, but if I'm wrong and a republican makes one of those runoffs then the republicans could hold 4 of those districts, I'm also under the assumption that democrats put up strong candidates in the two south Florida districts if they don't republicans could hold those as well because of ballot-splitting Cubans, theirs also two Trump-democratic districts in Nevada and New Hampshire democrats could potentially lose, and they may fail to pickup the two open Clinton-Republican districts in Washington and Arizona. If all these thing go wrong then my House results projection could drop from D+10 to Even. This would mean the House is Safe R instead of Lean R.

You and LimoLiberal realize I was joking right? Oh wait, you guys don't care because you're a sock of LimoLiberal and LimoLiberal is a troll.

If you're going to troll, at least be like ahugecat and be an obvious republican hack.

There's healthy skepticism (IceSpear and PNM before Alabama), and then there is blatant concern trolling like you two.

I'm not a damn sock, I'm just skeptical of this "Blue wave" after watching democrats on CNN all last year talking about how "Clintons going to win in a Landslide" only to watch her get slaughtered on Election Day. After that I have no faith in the overconfidence of democrats, who have been losing elections left and right since the 2010 midterms.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

You guys have a point, I'm under the assumption Democrats will gain the 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California because I believe republicans are going to be locked out of the Senate and Governor races their, but if I'm wrong and a republican makes one of those runoffs then the republicans could hold 4 of those districts, I'm also under the assumption that democrats put up strong candidates in the two south Florida districts if they don't republicans could hold those as well because of ballot-splitting Cubans, theirs also two Trump-democratic districts in Nevada and New Hampshire democrats could potentially lose, and they may fail to pickup the two open Clinton-Republican districts in Washington and Arizona. If all these thing go wrong then my House results projection could drop from D+10 to Even. This would mean the House is Safe R instead of Lean R.

You and LimoLiberal realize I was joking right? Oh wait, you guys don't care because you're a sock of LimoLiberal and LimoLiberal is a troll.

If you're going to troll, at least be like ahugecat and be an obvious republican hack.

There's healthy skepticism (IceSpear and PNM before Alabama), and then there is blatant concern trolling like you two.

I'm not a damn sock, I'm just skeptical of this "Blue wave" after watching democrats on CNN all last year talking about how "Clintons going to win in a Landslide" only to watch her get slaughtered on Election Day. After that I have no faith in the overconfidence of democrats, who have been losing elections left and right since the 2010 midterms.

Hillary was never doing very well in the polls. Her polling average was 3% over Donald Trump... what an amazing polling average. NH, Florida, PA polls all showed a close race. It's not my fault CNN doesn't know how to read goddamn polls.

[King Lear]

You guys have a point, I'm under the assumption Democrats will gain the 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California because I believe republicans are going to be locked out of the Senate and Governor races their, but if I'm wrong and a republican makes one of those runoffs then the republicans could hold 4 of those districts, I'm also under the assumption that democrats put up strong candidates in the two south Florida districts if they don't republicans could hold those as well because of ballot-splitting Cubans, theirs also two Trump-democratic districts in Nevada and New Hampshire democrats could potentially lose, and they may fail to pickup the two open Clinton-Republican districts in Washington and Arizona. If all these thing go wrong then my House results projection could drop from D+10 to Even. This would mean the House is Safe R instead of Lean R.

You and LimoLiberal realize I was joking right? Oh wait, you guys don't care because you're a sock of LimoLiberal and LimoLiberal is a troll.

If you're going to troll, at least be like ahugecat and be an obvious republican hack.

There's healthy skepticism (IceSpear and PNM before Alabama), and then there is blatant concern trolling like you two.

I'm not a damn sock, I'm just skeptical of this "Blue wave" after watching democrats on CNN all last year talking about how "Clintons going to win in a Landslide" only to watch her get slaughtered on Election Day. After that I have no faith in the overconfidence of democrats, who have been losing elections left and right since the 2010 midterms.

Hillary was never doing very well in the polls. Her polling average was 3% over Donald Trump... what an amazing polling average. NH, Florida, PA polls all showed a close race. It's not my fault CNN doesn't know how to read goddamn polls.

It's really funny how biased news is these days, I like to sometimes flip between the various cable news networks and it's so ing predictable, you go on CNN and MSNBC and it's always "Russia, Russia, Russia, the Democrats are going to flip the house, Trumps going to get impeached", then you turn to "Fox News" and it's always "Clinton scandal, Clinton scandal, Clinton scandal, Republicans are going to gain seats in the midterms, Trumps going to be the greatest president ever", this partisan bullsh**t is repeated constantly 24/7 by these so-called "News networks" to the point you really can't tell what's real and fake anymore. This is exactly what the Republicans and their corporate supporters want, and unfortunately democrats are falling for it by retreating into their own echo-chambers (most of them believe a blue waves coming and Trumps not going to finish his term) instead of seeing how ed up the country is with republicans shoving through Tax Reform, on the verge of shredding the Saftey-net, starting a massive war
With Iran or North Korea, and if trump gets reelected (spoiler alert; he probably will) they will most likely get a 7-2 majority on the Supreme Court which will transform America into a Corporate Theocratic Dictatorship, while this is all going on Democrats will be listening to Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer tell us about a "Blue wave".

[Cactus Jack]

You guys have a point, I'm under the assumption Democrats will gain the 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California because I believe republicans are going to be locked out of the Senate and Governor races their, but if I'm wrong and a republican makes one of those runoffs then the republicans could hold 4 of those districts, I'm also under the assumption that democrats put up strong candidates in the two south Florida districts if they don't republicans could hold those as well because of ballot-splitting Cubans, theirs also two Trump-democratic districts in Nevada and New Hampshire democrats could potentially lose, and they may fail to pickup the two open Clinton-Republican districts in Washington and Arizona. If all these thing go wrong then my House results projection could drop from D+10 to Even. This would mean the House is Safe R instead of Lean R.

You and LimoLiberal realize I was joking right? Oh wait, you guys don't care because you're a sock of LimoLiberal and LimoLiberal is a troll.

If you're going to troll, at least be like ahugecat and be an obvious republican hack.

There's healthy skepticism (IceSpear and PNM before Alabama), and then there is blatant concern trolling like you two.

I'm not a damn sock, I'm just skeptical of this "Blue wave" after watching democrats on CNN all last year talking about how "Clintons going to win in a Landslide" only to watch her get slaughtered on Election Day. After that I have no faith in the overconfidence of democrats, who have been losing elections left and right since the 2010 midterms.

Hillary was never doing very well in the polls. Her polling average was 3% over Donald Trump... what an amazing polling average. NH, Florida, PA polls all showed a close race. It's not my fault CNN doesn't know how to read goddamn polls.

It's really funny how biased news is these days, I like to sometimes flip between the various cable news networks and it's so ing predictable, you go on CNN and MSNBC and it's always "Russia, Russia, Russia, the Democrats are going to flip the house, Trumps going to get impeached", then you turn to "Fox News" and it's always "Clinton scandal, Clinton scandal, Clinton scandal, Republicans are going to gain seats in the midterms, Trumps going to be the greatest president ever", this partisan bullsh**t is repeated constantly 24/7 by these so-called "News networks" to the point you really can't tell what's real and fake anymore. This is exactly what the Republicans and their corporate supporters want, and unfortunately democrats are falling for it by retreating into their own echo-chambers (most of them believe a blue waves coming and Trumps not going to finish his term) instead of seeing how ed up the country is with republicans shoving through Tax Reform, on the verge of shredding the Saftey-net, starting a massive war
With Iran or North Korea, and if trump gets reelected (spoiler alert; he probably will) they will most likely get a 7-2 majority on the Supreme Court which will transform America into a Corporate Theocratic Dictatorship, while this is all going on Democrats will be listening to Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer tell us about a "Blue wave".

Can you even hear yourself inside that tinfoil hat? Sweet baby Jesus Christ, you sound like the Democratic version of my dad.

[MAINEiac4434]

Likely D, closer to safe than lean.

The overconfidence is mind blowing, you’d think people would learn from last year.

Never forget that I am much smarter than you.

[King Lear]

My IQ is 138, how high is yours?

[Kamala]

My IQ is 138, how high is yours?

Let me guess, Little Lear is nine inches, too.

Like I haven’t heard that one before.

[Cactus Jack]

My IQ is 138, how high is yours?

Let me guess, Little Lear is nine inches, too.

Like I haven’t heard that one before.

Let us right now mark the night Kamala nearly killed me via the sudden inhalation of iced tea.

[King Lear]

Just to clarify, my current house forecast still is D+10, with the caveat that under the right circumstances democrats still have a pathway to a house majority. The main reason I have my forecast at D+10 is because I firmly believe democrats will flip the 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California due to republicans getting locked out of the senate and governor runoffs, I also firmly believe democrats are the favorites in the two south Florida Clinton-Republican districts, the two open Clinton-Republican districts in Washington and Arizona, along with in Comsocks, Coffmans, and Hurds districts. Meanwhile Republicans are the favorites to flip the three double-digit Trump-Democratic districts in Minnesota and the double-digit Trump-Democratic district in Pennsylvania. For democrats to actually flip the house their going to have to win even more Clinton-Republican districts plus a few Trump-Republican districts, preferably some of those in New York and New Jersey that will be feeling some negative effects of the tax bill, this is by no means easy but is definitely not impossible, however I'm not willing to go around and claim the house is already won because doing so will help lead things down the same road they went last year.

[JA]

My IQ is 138, how high is yours?

[Brittain33]

King Lear, why is Peterson favored to lose in 2018 when he won in 2010, 2014, and 2016? His district has favored Republicans for a very long time. It's not a Trump thing.

[Cynthia]

Lean D, closer to tilt than to safe.

[Person Man]

Just to clarify, my current house forecast still is D+10, with the caveat that under the right circumstances democrats still have a pathway to a house majority. The main reason I have my forecast at D+10 is because I firmly believe democrats will flip the 7 Clinton-Republican districts in California due to republicans getting locked out of the senate and governor runoffs, I also firmly believe democrats are the favorites in the two south Florida Clinton-Republican districts, the two open Clinton-Republican districts in Washington and Arizona, along with in Comsocks, Coffmans, and Hurds districts. Meanwhile Republicans are the favorites to flip the three double-digit Trump-Democratic districts in Minnesota and the double-digit Trump-Democratic district in Pennsylvania. For democrats to actually flip the house their going to have to win even more Clinton-Republican districts plus a few Trump-Republican districts, preferably some of those in New York and New Jersey that will be feeling some negative effects of the tax bill, this is by no means easy but is definitely not impossible, however I'm not willing to go around and claim the house is already won because doing so will help lead things down the same road they went last year.

But like I have been saying, it will be very hard to justify going forward with an "almost victory.