Illinois will NOT trend heavily Republican

[jamestroll]

So many people on this forum think that Illinois will tend heavily Republican because ... reasons.. MUH MIDWEST.. muh Rauner won! muh Kirk won in 2010!..

Well guess what: that is not going to happen!

First for those of you who are in the "demographics are an ironclad destiny" club (who seem to be the biggest proponents of Illinois becoming a GOP stronghold).. y'all obviously have not looked into the states demographics!

The state is more diverse compared to other Midwestern states. The black population is around 15%, Hispanic population is around 17% and the Asian population is around 6%. It looks much more like the nation as a whole compared to Missouri, Michigan, Iowa, etc.

And the state has a large amount of whites with college degrees.



Look how the state sticks out like a sore thumb in the Midwest!

Once upon a time there was a divide between Cook County Suburbs and Chicago. Now it is just a slightly less shade of Democratic blue (or Atlas red) in the Cook County suburbs. I fully expect the same thing to happen in places like DuPage County, Illinois. Mark Kirk was not able to win DuPage County even while Tammy Duckworth was able to do well in downstate Illinois for a Democrat.

Chicagoland reminds me a lot more like coastal metros than it does St Louis and other Midwestern metros.

Plus many areas downstate are quite receptive to the Democrats. St Clair County, for instance, will likely remain Democratic under either new or old coalitions. Sure the "new" Democratic coalition will likely have margins in St Clair County shaky for Democrats but still fairly solid.

Yes Chicago has lost population but downstate is also suffering quite bad.

Now with all that being said the state is still very elastic. Dare I say the GOP has a better chance of winning a constitutional office in Illinois than Virginia. This is due to elasticity and the state of Illinois has consistently long had corruption and fiscal issues. So every so often a Republican will sneak in. But they often get blown out for re-election. Rauner will probably do better than Kirk and could win re-election in a better year for the GOP but he will likely suffer due to the Democratic blizzard next year.  Pat Quinn could lose his bid for Attorney General also.

But overall the state has literally perfect demographics to remain solidly Democratic. What am I missing here? Why is the general consensus having the state trend heavily GOP in the future?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

The only way Illinois is competitive, barring a massive nationwide GOP landslide, is if Cook County rapidly starts losing population.

[jamestroll]

I would also like to note that I would expect the Midwest to be to the GOP in the future like it was to the Democrats in the past. Basically consistent but sometimes shaky margins for the GOP Presidential candidate and the opposition party (Democrats in the future) doing decent to well down ballot.

And Illinois would be the Democratic sore thumb instead of Indiana being the Republican sore thumb.

Just because a region is trending a certain way does not mean every single state will.

[libertpaulian]

The GOP gets back to its centre-right roots and boots out the Trumpists and Taliban-gelicals, which in turn will bring DuPage, Lake, and the northwestern Cook suburbs home.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

The GOP gets back to its centre-right roots and boots out the Trumpists and Taliban-gelicals, which in turn will bring DuPage, Lake, and the northwestern Cook suburbs home.

That's not going to happen, sadly. Trumpism is the future of the GOP.

[Heisenberg]

What Jimmie says is right. St. Clair County still went for Hillary by 6 despite her being a terrible fit for the county, and even before Trump, the D trends in the Collar Counties were already happening.

[libertpaulian]

The GOP gets back to its centre-right roots and boots out the Trumpists and Taliban-gelicals, which in turn will bring DuPage, Lake, and the northwestern Cook suburbs home.

That's not going to happen, sadly. Trumpism is the future of the GOP.

If the GOP loses bigly in 2018 and 2020, no it won't.

[TDAS04]

The GOP gets back to its centre-right roots and boots out the Trumpists and Taliban-gelicals, which in turn will bring DuPage, Lake, and the northwestern Cook suburbs home.

That's not going to happen, sadly. Trumpism is the future of the GOP.

If the GOP loses bigly in 2018 and 2020, no it won't.

I honestly don't know for sure (I don't see how anyone can be certain about these things), but Trump wasn't just some Republican nominee who disappeared after the election.  He actually won the presidency, and I'm guessing that his stamp on the GOP will linger for awhile.  

[dw93]

The GOP gets back to its centre-right roots and boots out the Trumpists and Taliban-gelicals, which in turn will bring DuPage, Lake, and the northwestern Cook suburbs home.

That's not going to happen, sadly. Trumpism is the future of the GOP.

If the GOP loses bigly in 2018 and 2020, no it won't.

I honestly don't know for sure (I don't see how anyone can be certain about these things), but Trump wasn't just some Republican nominee who disappeared after the election.  He actually won the presidency, and I'm guessing that his stamp on the GOP will linger for awhile.  

I agree with you that no one can be certain about these things. With that said, I can see libertpaulian being proven right if Trumpism does in fact fall flat on its face next year and in 2020 (especially 2020). If Trump does go down in defeat by a large margin, I could see George W. Bush having more sway over the GOP in the 2020s than Trump, and that's saying something. Did Carter's stamp linger on the Democratic party through the 80s after he lost big in 1980? No.

[uti2]

The GOP gets back to its centre-right roots and boots out the Trumpists and Taliban-gelicals, which in turn will bring DuPage, Lake, and the northwestern Cook suburbs home.

That's not going to happen, sadly. Trumpism is the future of the GOP.

If the GOP loses bigly in 2018 and 2020, no it won't.

I honestly don't know for sure (I don't see how anyone can be certain about these things), but Trump wasn't just some Republican nominee who disappeared after the election.  He actually won the presidency, and I'm guessing that his stamp on the GOP will linger for awhile.  

I agree with you that no one can be certain about these things. With that said, I can see libertpaulian being proven right if Trumpism does in fact fall flat on its face next year and in 2020 (especially 2020). If Trump does go down in defeat by a large margin, I could see George W. Bush having more sway over the GOP in the 2020s than Trump, and that's saying something. Did Carter's stamp linger on the Democratic party through the 80s after he lost big in 1980? No.

Carter was a conservative southern democrat, the next Democratic president was also a centrist southern democrat...

Dukakis tried LBJ-ism, remember.

[dw93]

The GOP gets back to its centre-right roots and boots out the Trumpists and Taliban-gelicals, which in turn will bring DuPage, Lake, and the northwestern Cook suburbs home.

That's not going to happen, sadly. Trumpism is the future of the GOP.

If the GOP loses bigly in 2018 and 2020, no it won't.

I honestly don't know for sure (I don't see how anyone can be certain about these things), but Trump wasn't just some Republican nominee who disappeared after the election.  He actually won the presidency, and I'm guessing that his stamp on the GOP will linger for awhile.  

I agree with you that no one can be certain about these things. With that said, I can see libertpaulian being proven right if Trumpism does in fact fall flat on its face next year and in 2020 (especially 2020). If Trump does go down in defeat by a large margin, I could see George W. Bush having more sway over the GOP in the 2020s than Trump, and that's saying something. Did Carter's stamp linger on the Democratic party through the 80s after he lost big in 1980? No.

Carter was a conservative southern democrat, the next Democratic president was also a centrist southern democrat...

Dukakis tried LBJ-ism, remember.

It took 12 years and three consecutive landslide defeats (one of which was Carter's) to get the next centrist southern Democrat though. The fact that New Deal liberalism had a somewhat of a  last  revival within the Democratic party in the 80s shows Carter had little to no influence over the party in that decade.

[uti2]

The GOP gets back to its centre-right roots and boots out the Trumpists and Taliban-gelicals, which in turn will bring DuPage, Lake, and the northwestern Cook suburbs home.

That's not going to happen, sadly. Trumpism is the future of the GOP.

If the GOP loses bigly in 2018 and 2020, no it won't.

I honestly don't know for sure (I don't see how anyone can be certain about these things), but Trump wasn't just some Republican nominee who disappeared after the election.  He actually won the presidency, and I'm guessing that his stamp on the GOP will linger for awhile.  

I agree with you that no one can be certain about these things. With that said, I can see libertpaulian being proven right if Trumpism does in fact fall flat on its face next year and in 2020 (especially 2020). If Trump does go down in defeat by a large margin, I could see George W. Bush having more sway over the GOP in the 2020s than Trump, and that's saying something. Did Carter's stamp linger on the Democratic party through the 80s after he lost big in 1980? No.

Carter was a conservative southern democrat, the next Democratic president was also a centrist southern democrat...

Dukakis tried LBJ-ism, remember.

It took 12 years and three consecutive landslide defeats (one of which was Carter's) to get the next centrist southern Democrat though. The fact that New Deal liberalism had a somewhat of a  last  revival within the Democratic party in the 80s shows Carter had little to no influence over the party in that decade.

Well, Mondale being a nominee obviously suggested some latent influence.

[dw93]

The GOP gets back to its centre-right roots and boots out the Trumpists and Taliban-gelicals, which in turn will bring DuPage, Lake, and the northwestern Cook suburbs home.

That's not going to happen, sadly. Trumpism is the future of the GOP.

If the GOP loses bigly in 2018 and 2020, no it won't.

I honestly don't know for sure (I don't see how anyone can be certain about these things), but Trump wasn't just some Republican nominee who disappeared after the election.  He actually won the presidency, and I'm guessing that his stamp on the GOP will linger for awhile.  

I agree with you that no one can be certain about these things. With that said, I can see libertpaulian being proven right if Trumpism does in fact fall flat on its face next year and in 2020 (especially 2020). If Trump does go down in defeat by a large margin, I could see George W. Bush having more sway over the GOP in the 2020s than Trump, and that's saying something. Did Carter's stamp linger on the Democratic party through the 80s after he lost big in 1980? No.

Carter was a conservative southern democrat, the next Democratic president was also a centrist southern democrat...

Dukakis tried LBJ-ism, remember.

It took 12 years and three consecutive landslide defeats (one of which was Carter's) to get the next centrist southern Democrat though. The fact that New Deal liberalism had a somewhat of a  last  revival within the Democratic party in the 80s shows Carter had little to no influence over the party in that decade.

Well, Mondale being a nominee obviously suggested some latent influence.

Mondale was a New Dealer type himself though and didn't have any easy time getting the nomination. While Centrist Democrats existed in the 80s, they were more in the mold of Gary Hart (who gave Mondale a run for his money in 1984) and the "Atari Democrats" than they were Carter/Clinton.

[TheSaint250]

There's no such thing as "Trumpism" as an ideology

[uti2]

There's no such thing as "Trumpism" as an ideology

It refers to the platform Trump ran on. He advocated a healthcare program where people wouldn't 'die in the streets', etc.

Bush governed the opposite of what he ran on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9SOVzMV2bc

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

IT is not that under current factors that it will trend Republican, but it could rapidly trend Republican once the Republicans are locked out of the electoral college due to demographic changes in sunbelt states.

The very changes needed to stay competitive there, would make them more acceptable here. Likewise, the changes needed to regain a path to winning after losing those states has the same effect.

It stands to reason that Republicans would have a strong base of support in Illinois, even if deep in the minority and thus makes it a likely hot spot for Republicans to craft a winning message that can get them the President back in the late 2020's or early 2030's. It is also still going to be less diverse than CA, TX, FL and NY.

[RINO Tom]

The GOP gets back to its centre-right roots and boots out the Trumpists and Taliban-gelicals, which in turn will bring DuPage, Lake, and the northwestern Cook suburbs home.

That's not going to happen, sadly. Trumpism is the future of the GOP.

If the GOP loses bigly in 2018 and 2020, no it won't.

I honestly don't know for sure (I don't see how anyone can be certain about these things), but Trump wasn't just some Republican nominee who disappeared after the election.  He actually won the presidency, and I'm guessing that his stamp on the GOP will linger for awhile.  

I agree with you that no one can be certain about these things. With that said, I can see libertpaulian being proven right if Trumpism does in fact fall flat on its face next year and in 2020 (especially 2020). If Trump does go down in defeat by a large margin, I could see George W. Bush having more sway over the GOP in the 2020s than Trump, and that's saying something. Did Carter's stamp linger on the Democratic party through the 80s after he lost big in 1980? No.

Carter was a conservative southern democrat, the next Democratic president was also a centrist southern democrat...

Dukakis tried LBJ-ism, remember.

I don't think Carter was really a "conservative."

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

The GOP gets back to its centre-right roots and boots out the Trumpists and Taliban-gelicals, which in turn will bring DuPage, Lake, and the northwestern Cook suburbs home.

That's not going to happen, sadly. Trumpism is the future of the GOP.

If the GOP loses bigly in 2018 and 2020, no it won't.

I honestly don't know for sure (I don't see how anyone can be certain about these things), but Trump wasn't just some Republican nominee who disappeared after the election.  He actually won the presidency, and I'm guessing that his stamp on the GOP will linger for awhile.  

I agree with you that no one can be certain about these things. With that said, I can see libertpaulian being proven right if Trumpism does in fact fall flat on its face next year and in 2020 (especially 2020). If Trump does go down in defeat by a large margin, I could see George W. Bush having more sway over the GOP in the 2020s than Trump, and that's saying something. Did Carter's stamp linger on the Democratic party through the 80s after he lost big in 1980? No.

Carter was a conservative southern democrat, the next Democratic president was also a centrist southern democrat...

Dukakis tried LBJ-ism, remember.

I don't think Carter was really a "conservative."

Yeah, "moderate Southern Democrat" would be a better description.

[RINO Tom]

I don't think Carter was really a "conservative."

Neither is Joe Manchin.

Agreed, and I have never said he was.

[jamestroll]

I will have every prediction out of New Hampshire as solid Democratic until people stop saying Illinois will trend solid Republican.

I do not understand why everyone thinks New Hampshire and Illinois will become GOP strong holds.

[dw93]

To respond to topic of the thread, I do think the Democrats are at their peak support in this state. With that said I can only see Illinois at best for the GOP becoming a toss up swing state. Likely it's a lean D swing state past the after the 2020s while the rest of the rust belt at that time is either lean R (Michigan, Pennsylvania) or is  solid R(Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa).

[jamestroll]

To respond to topic of the thread, I do think the Democrats are at their peak support in this state.

Why?

[dw93]

To respond to topic of the thread, I do think the Democrats are at their peak support in this state.

Why?

I don't see the population in Chicago and Cook County increasing, if anything it will decline and the Collar Counties aren't as Democratic as some on this site paint them out to be. I live in Will, and I can tell ya that outside of Joliet, this county is pretty Republican and Will is on the Southwest Corner of Cook. On top of that, the Democratic party in this state SUCKS (I say this as a Democrat) and the only reason it has as much power as it does is because of corruption, the national Republican party being too socially conservative for most in this state, and the State GOP being Incompetent. If and when the House of Madigan/Cullerton goes down and if  the national GOP drops the culture war nonsense and goes in a more moderate or at least libertarian direction, and if the State GOP gets its act together,  I can see the Democrat's grip on the state loosening significantly. It won't become a solid red (atlas blue) state, but it won't remain a solid blue (atlas red) state either.

[jamestroll]

Nope.  Astrology says different.

[dw93]

Nope.  Astrology says different.

Good thing I don't believe in astrology.