WI-WPA Intelligence: Nicholson +7 in GOP Primary

[Pollster]

Nicholson 30%
Vukmir 23%
Schiess 2%
Undecided 45%

https://www.scribd.com/document/367193835/WI-Sen-WPI-Intelligence-R-for-Kevin-Nicholson-Dec-2017

[UncleSam]

Lol those undecided numbers

Probably a toss up in the primary

Vukmir would make this lean D IMO

Nicholson would be more of an unknown quantity. Could be safe D with him or up to leans R, just depends on the campaign he runs and how he answers lingering questions about his candidacy.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Lol those undecided numbers

Probably a toss up in the primary

Vukmir would make this lean D IMO

Nicholson would be more of an unknown quantity. Could be safe D with him or up to leans R, just depends on the campaign he runs and how he answers lingering questions about his candidacy.

Don't kid yourself. Wisconsin senate is safe D in 2018. Depending on the candidate, republicans lose by 8-15%.

[Former Kentuckian]

Lol those undecided numbers

Probably a toss up in the primary

Vukmir would make this lean D IMO

Nicholson would be more of an unknown quantity. Could be safe D with him or up to leans R, just depends on the campaign he runs and how he answers lingering questions about his candidacy.

Maybe I'm underestimating them, but neither Vukmir nor Nicholson seem that threatening to me. Baldwin could easily paint Nicholson as a Bannon recruit (Steve Bannon endorsed him) and Vukmir as a Scott Walker stooge. Vukmir also has her ties to American Legislative Exchange Council and numerous transparency issues that Baldwin could eat her alive for.

[MT Treasurer]

If Republicans are getting blown out of the water in this race (as seems likely at this point), it could really hurt Walker. Likely D.

[UncleSam]

Really guys lol? I get that it's very likely to be a decidedly pro-Dem environment, but we are talking about a state that is trending right, is dominated at all levels by the Republican state party, and was won by Donald Trump last year.

I'm not suggesting Rs are favored, but the notion that the minimum loss a Republican could possibly muster here at this point in time is 8% is laughable. The state has trended right, Milwaukee is slowly losing population, and an energized Dane just won't be enough if the union voters stick with Rs, as they have for a decade.

Yes, I think it is likely enough either come back to the Ds or stay home out of disgust at Trump.

No, you can't attack Nicholson for being endorsed by Bannon lol, literally no one cares except people in Madison, who are going to show up in record numbers anyway (and this the Lean D rating).

Where Nicholson is weak is on telling the truth and consistency. He was a prominent national democrat 20 years ago, blatantly lied about who he voted for in the past, and has flip-flopped on numerous issues. If Baldwin can hammer him for being untrustworthy then she'll have an easy re-election campaign, and this will actually shift to Likely or Safe D.

If those attacks don't stick, however, you won't see a blowout against a typical conservative in Wisconsin in 2018. I think Dane turnout will be high enough to carry Baldwin to victory in the end, but people forget that turnout in Dane was actually really high in 2016 too. Milwaukee was down, but there's fewer people in Milwaukee now than there were, and there will be even fewer come November 2018 barring a turnaround.

Keep dreaming that the right-trending Midwest is safe D territory in a favorable environment. It isnt, and I'm willing to bet that even while taking the house at least one of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania will end up being quite close statewide for Ds.

Show me a poll of Baldwin leading any of Vukmir, Nicholson, or Generic R by double digits or high singles and I'll call this Likely D. Until then, it's Lean.

[MT Treasurer]

^Here you go.

Also, Nicholson isn't really a good fit for rural WI, while Baldwin's economic populism probably plays very well there. Like you said, turnout in Dane and Milwaukee will likely be through the roof, so the WOW counties won't be enough to save Republicans running statewide, especially with Trump in the White House. I agree that WI is trending Republican, but it's not as if that precludes the possibility of Democrats having a good year there every so often (think of VA in 2009 and 2010).

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Yeah no, a dem incumbent in a purple state in a big wave year isn't going to come close to being taken down, even if Jesus himself was running.

[UncleSam]

^Here you go.

Also, Nicholson isn't really a good fit for rural WI, while Baldwin's economic populism probably plays very well there. Like you said, turnout in Dane and Milwaukee will likely be through the roof, so the WOW counties won't be enough to save Republicans running statewide, especially with Trump in the White House. I agree that WI is trending Republican, but it's not as if that precludes the possibility of Democrats having a good year there every so often (think of VA in 2009 and 2010).

I never said it precludes the possibility. Indeed, Democrats are clearly favored here, as I said. Leans is not a marginal advantage.

The notion they are overwhelming favorites here, however, is silly.

Not quite sure I get your link, as I don't see any polls listed there yet nor do I recall any posted here. Are you just linking that so we can see polls as they roll in, with some of them (presumably, in others' opinions) indicating large Baldwin leads?

[MT Treasurer]

I never said it precludes the possibility. Indeed, Democrats are clearly favored here, as I said. Leans is not a marginal advantage.

The notion they are overwhelming favorites here, however, is silly.

Not quite sure I get your link, as I don't see any polls listed there yet nor do I recall any posted here. Are you just linking that so we can see polls as they roll in, with some of them (presumably, in others' opinions) indicating large Baldwin leads?

This should work. Shows her up 14 over Clarke (49-35) and 13 over Duffy (49-36), who is basically the embodiment of generic R. This is from February, but the national environment hasn't gotten any better for Republicans since then.

I don't think placing it in the same category as MT, WV, OH, etc. makes any sense.

[Holmes]

With what we've seen in the Richmond and Birmingham suburbs during VA-Gov and AL-Sen, I wouldn't count on Repblicans banking many votes in WOW.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I never said it precludes the possibility. Indeed, Democrats are clearly favored here, as I said. Leans is not a marginal advantage.

The notion they are overwhelming favorites here, however, is silly.

Not quite sure I get your link, as I don't see any polls listed there yet nor do I recall any posted here. Are you just linking that so we can see polls as they roll in, with some of them (presumably, in others' opinions) indicating large Baldwin leads?

This should work. Shows her up 14 over Clarke (49-35) and 13 over Duffy (49-36), who is basically the embodiment of generic R. This is from February, but the national environment hasn't gotten any better for Republicans since then.

I don't think placing it in the same category as MT, WV, OH, etc. makes any sense.

It depends on how wide your lean category is. My lean category, for instance, goes all the way from a 55% chance of Victory to an 84% chance of victory. One should not assume that two races are equally competitive based solely on the fact that they are in the same category.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Good, I don't want Vukmir in (aka probably the only person running so far that would have a fighting chance against Baldwin).

[mcmikk]

I'm sure Baldwin would rather go up against Nicholson, but chances are she'll swat whoever the GOP sends to challenge her. Baldwin wins by 5-10 points.

[Maxwell]

it would be quite hilarious of Nicholson, after all of the glowing pieces I've seen about him about oh how he's a dream recruit, manages to lose the GOP primary anyways.

[SATW]

Go Nicholson!

[MasterJedi]

Nicholson allows Baldwin to get a bigger win, he's an alt-right Bannon slut.

[mcmikk]

Nicholson allows Baldwin to get a bigger win, he's an alt-right Bannon slut.