Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[Virginiá]

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93% ..... that's one big number.

And this is also why some of us (myself included) have been so interested in his approval ratings, especially in advance of the midterms. Past elections and now 2017 elections show as well that people who disapprove of the president almost uniformly vote against the president's party. This is an unmitigated disaster for Republicans, and they are about to experience the pain of their own patented Obama Midterm™ next year

[Virginiá]

It seems that certain people can't accept that their side can possibly lose without it being cheating:

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Anyone else hearing this? Anyone? Anything to this rumor? Can anyone confirm? Just reporting.

Doesn't Alabama have voter ID requirements?

Yes lol. This is part of why the typical conservative excuse for photo ID laws - to give people confidence in elections - is full of crap. People who are constantly thinking their elections are being stolen are not going to stop just because of voter ID. They'll just come up with some new conspiracy theory that makes absolutely no sense.

Here is from further down that Twitter feed:

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I didn't know the Alabama Supreme Court was liberal

Never change, Twitter conservatives!

[Virginiá]

Ah. But if it is a true error.

Ah yes, 'true.' That would be some of that Alabama-style truth they are known for.

[Virginiá]

While this race has a steep age gradient, with voters under 45 voting 60-38 Jones while those 65+ voted 40-59 Moore, I noticed something in the CNN exit poll:

Those aged 30-39 voted 66-32 Jones
Those aged 25-29 voted 62-36 Jones
Those under 25 voted 59-40 Jones

Is this reverse gradient because

-voters born after 1990 or so are becoming more conservative?
-those likely to have young daughters at home (in their 30s, as opposed to 18-24) more personally disturbed by the allegations against Moore?, or
-something else?

Maybe slightly less so in Alabama. In some states - many maybe, 18-29 year olds are more Democratic than 30-39 year olds.

Here are the eps for AL 2012: http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AL/president/

Young people are much more Democratic than olds in AL, similar to some other southern states. It's possible in 2016 they were even more so than 2012, but the youngest do seem to be slightly less so.

[Virginiá]

I'm happy that the religious extremist and alleged pedophile didn't win, but Doug Jones isn't much to write home about. He hardly ever mentioned his positions on anything, and constantly focused on how bad his opponent was, and not what he wanted to do for Alabama. He had no substance to him, and that's why he only won by 1.5% against a known pedophile, despite having 10x more funding and the entire media system & politicians (including some Republicans) behind him.

I think you're underrating just how tribal the electorate is, especially in a state like Alabama. That level of partisanship is exactly how you end up with Tuesday's result despite it seeming patently absurd. I mean, after all, it's not like most Moore supporters believed he was a pedophile and still voted for him. They flat out didn't believe the allegations, which made it easy to justify their support for him.

[Virginiá]

Greedo, you've been wrong about everything you ever said, you can't write legible English and you don't have a grasp of basic morality. Just stop expressing yourself, you have nothing worth saying and you also can't say things because you suck at language.

I never said the race was rigged but that there seems to be voter fraud going around,Doug Jones did win but that guy said he and others came from all over the country to vote for Doug Jones.

How does a single guy saying something matter? if I say that I helped the Clinton campaign bus in 3,0000 Mexicans so she could win the popular vote, does that make you believe it?

This is just more partisanship at work. Very low burden of proof for accusations against Democrats, and the highest burden of proof for any and all accusations against Republicans.

Greedo's comments are a prime example of why you shouldn't believe everything you read on the internet. He doesn't really seem to question whether something is true or not so long as it makes him feel better about his political choices.

[Virginiá]

Blow me over with a feather. Doug Jones says the President should not resign be of the sexual harassment charges against him:

https://www.redstate.com/arbogast/2017/12/17/jake-tapper-asks-doug-jones-trump-resign-sexual-harassment-allegations/

He he just a good guy or trying to get re-elected?

It's going to be hard to ensure reelection, so there will probably be a lot of tip-toeing around and statements like that. From my perspective, I'm just fine with it and I don't expect him to wield the rhetoric of a safe-seat liberal nor do I expect him to vote in ways that would make campaign ads against him.

[Virginiá]

I'm curious about Virginia's point of view but I am comfortable leaving this thread stickied for as long as there's active discussion about the race and its data. My guess is that it will die down in the next week or two and we can unsticky it then.

That was pretty much what I intended to do, barring any action on your part. It's like the other high profile special elections. So long as there is activity, I don't see a reason why it has to come down just yet.

[Virginiá]

You guys are so blind to what I am saying. Doug Jones only won because Roy Moore is a child rapist. If another candidate was on the ballot he would have lost badly. This race had nothing to do with people not liking republicans and wanting change or whatever. It was all about Roy Moore and his actions.

That's a very narrow way to look at this, and it ignores the giant shift against Republicans that has gone in this year. Are you suggesting none of that has affected Alabama? Why were the demographics swinging against Moore in line with the demographics swinging against Republicans in general elsewhere?

Or, how about Moore only winning his last statewide race in 2012 by around 4 points?

It was also stated that internal polling had a race with Moore close before the allegations, and still close but in Jones' favor after (link)

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What I posted on AAD still seems adequate, imo:

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[Virginiá]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, at least according to the Jones campaign (and the polling doesn't exactly hurt their case either), Moore was just as weak before the allegations, and the fight over the allegations in some cases seemed to help Moore by "tribalizing" Republicans. Besides the polling, this isn't exactly hard to believe. Moore didn't do so well in 2012 either. He is just a weak candidate in general.