Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[junior chįmp]

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[SingingAnalyst]

Clearly, reasonably wealthy, "seasoned" (30+ and worldly wise) and especially well-educated voters were extremely unsettled about Moore's positions on homosexuality and the role of Christianity (culture and scriptures) in public law and life-- even without considering any of the allegations against him.

According to CNN exit polls, among White voters, education (having vs. not having a college degree) was 2-3 times as great a factor in one's vote, as gender. College educated white men went 62-36 Moore, while white women without a college degree went 72-26 Moore.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Blow me over with a feather. Doug Jones says the President should not resign because of the sexual harassment charges against him:

https://www.redstate.com/arbogast/2017/12/17/jake-tapper-asks-doug-jones-trump-resign-sexual-harassment-allegations/

Is he just a good guy or trying to get re-elected?

[Santander]

Blow me over with a feather. Doug Jones says the President should not resign be of the sexual harassment charges against him:

https://www.redstate.com/arbogast/2017/12/17/jake-tapper-asks-doug-jones-trump-resign-sexual-harassment-allegations/

He he just a good guy or trying to get re-elected?

Wow, what a FF...

[Virginiá]

Blow me over with a feather. Doug Jones says the President should not resign be of the sexual harassment charges against him:

https://www.redstate.com/arbogast/2017/12/17/jake-tapper-asks-doug-jones-trump-resign-sexual-harassment-allegations/

He he just a good guy or trying to get re-elected?

It's going to be hard to ensure reelection, so there will probably be a lot of tip-toeing around and statements like that. From my perspective, I'm just fine with it and I don't expect him to wield the rhetoric of a safe-seat liberal nor do I expect him to vote in ways that would make campaign ads against him.

[swf541]

Blow me over with a feather. Doug Jones says the President should not resign be of the sexual harassment charges against him:

https://www.redstate.com/arbogast/2017/12/17/jake-tapper-asks-doug-jones-trump-resign-sexual-harassment-allegations/

He he just a good guy or trying to get re-elected?

It's going to be hard to ensure reelection, so there will probably be a lot of tip-toeing around and statements like that. From my perspective, I'm just fine with it and I don't expect him to wield the rhetoric of a safe-seat liberal nor do I expect him to vote in ways that would make campaign ads against him.

[Santander]

He's not really tip-toeing around anything. That is a distinction between Trump and Franken - Trump's allegations surfaced before the election, and the voters had their opportunity to judge him for them. That is just a statement of fact. This is a guy who ran as an openly pro-choice candidate in freaking Alabama, he is not a tip-toer. I'm starting to think Doug Jones might be a decent guy with actual integrity...

[Landslide Lyndon]

The official Democratic line now is to ask for hearings and to give a chance to these women to tell their stories before congress.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I think this thread is beginning to get off Alabama.  I realize everything can be related to everything else, but things are stretching a bit.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I think this thread is beginning to get off Alabama.  I realize everything can be related to everything else, but things are stretching a bit.

Well duh. the election is over so there's not as much to discuss regarding this race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think this thread is beginning to get off Alabama.  I realize everything can be related to everything else, but things are stretching a bit.

Well duh. the election is over so there's not as much to discuss regarding this race.

True.  The thread should probably be unstickied.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I think this thread is beginning to get off Alabama.  I realize everything can be related to everything else, but things are stretching a bit.

Well duh. the election is over so there's not as much to discuss regarding this race.
[/quote
Well duh

Go to a more appropriate thread!

You can discuss here how nasty Moore is for not conceeding.
Or, how nice Jones is.
Will Jones win effect the Governor’s race?
Can Jones be re-elected by being nice.
There is a lot to discuss about Alabama.

Take Texas and Tennessee somewhere else.

[DrScholl]

No one really needs to call for Trump to resign because everyone knows that he won't do it. With that said, if Democrats retake Congress next year there will surely be investigations into the matters.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Good, Jones is tacking right and moving towards the center, very good!

[IceSpear]

The one thing I took from Jones' comments is that he wants to be re-elected, and isn't resigned to a retirement/presidential run/VP slot/cabinet post/Blanching.

[Arkansas Yankee]

No one really needs to call for Trump to resign because everyone knows that he won't do it. With that said, if Democrats retake Congress next year there will surely be into the matters.
[/quote

I am not going to list them all, but many Democrats are calling for Trump to resign.  For one: Cory Booker

[Bidenworth2020]

What about CD results using 2010 districts?

[Landslide Lyndon]

What about CD results using 2010 districts?

Read message #376

[Arkansas Yankee]

Good!  Spend your time and money in Alabama.

[NOVA Green]

I think this thread is beginning to get off Alabama.  I realize everything can be related to everything else, but things are stretching a bit.

Well duh. the election is over so there's not as much to discuss regarding this race.

True.  The thread should probably be unstickied.

I have no idea what some of these other folks are wrangling about, but I'm still mining through precinct results, and nobody really commented on my Jefferson or Baldwin County numbers. but I'm still about to post some data on precinct results from Calhoun County (Anniston).

Maybe I was mistaken, and this isn't the thread to discuss actual election results, including precinct data from the AL-2017-Special Election as they become available.

Maybe we need a whole new thread to actually discuss and analyze the actual election results from Alabama, or just more aggressively curb the serial thread derailers so they can take their arguments that have nothing to do with the topic at hand elsewhere?

Half tempted to just start a new thread for those interested in actually looking at what happened in 'Bama in '17 in the election, since it seems that there are only a few dozen posters on the thread actually interested in a more detailed discussion of the results and what that portends for the future of the Democratic and Republican political coalitions in Alabama a few years down the line.

Let's face it the Doug Jones victory in Alabama, was heavily based upon a combination of factors:

1.) High African-American turnout in an off-year election.

2.) Significant swings towards the Democratic candidate among College-Educated and Upper-Income White voters in the larger Metro Areas of the State.

3.) Less significant, but still swings towards the Democratic Candidate among WWC and Middle-Class voters in traditionally Democratic regions of the State, such as Northern Alabama, where in some cases Doug Jones exceeded, and in other cases came close to matching, Gore's numbers from 2000.

4.) Major decline of Republican voter turnout, especially among older White Rural precincts throughout the State.

5.) Massive Generational Gap with Jones winning voters under the age of 45 (60-38), narrowly losing the 45-64 Year Vote (47-51), and losing the 65+ Yr vote (40-59).

Sure some of that can be explained by a dramatic decrease in turnout among older White Republican Voters disgusted by Moore's behavior (See some of the rural precinct results that I have been posting), BUT looking at those 18-44 Year old numbers should frighten any Republican running for Statewide office in the Great State of Alabama.

Although Moore might have been the worst possible candidate Alabama 'Pubs could have nominated (All of the Sexual assault and harassment issues, some involving Minors likely narrowly sunk his campaign), still the "Republican Civil War" is pitting the "Populist Republicans" against the "Country Club Republicans", and right now the Populist Republicans don't like the dog meat they are getting fed from the Trump Administration and Republican Control of House & Senate, while meanwhile, the Southern "Country Club Republicans" started swinging heavily Dem between '12 and '16 looking at precinct results from Cities in TN, TX, and GA...

Now we are seeing this phenomenon where Doug Jones wins Mountain Brook (60-40) and HRC barely cracked 20% and Trump captured 60%.

Once these types of Upper-Middle Class White Republican Leaning and Indy Voters flip, they tend to flip hard, and frequently permanently.

For many in the wealthier parts of Alabama, this is their first time ever having voted Democratic for a Federal Election, and as we saw in the West Coast in the 1990s and early 2000s, NOVA and similar places in NC in the 2000s and accentuating under Obama, these are voters that will always turn out to vote, and don't like the Republican brand under the current Presidency not to mention the face of their current Party in Alabama.

[Brittain33]

I'm curious about Virginia's point of view but I am comfortable leaving this thread stickied for as long as there's active discussion about the race and its data. My guess is that it will die down in the next week or two and we can unsticky it then.

[OneJ]

Let's face it the Doug Jones victory in Alabama, was heavily based upon a combination of factors:

1.) High African-American turnout in an off-year election.

2.) Significant swings towards the Democratic candidate among College-Educated and Upper-Income White voters in the larger Metro Areas of the State.

3.) Less significant, but still swings towards the Democratic Candidate among WWC and Middle-Class voters in traditionally Democratic regions of the State, such as Northern Alabama, where in some cases Doug Jones exceeded, and in other cases came close to matching, Gore's numbers from 2000.

4.) Major decline of Republican voter turnout, especially among older White Rural precincts throughout the State.

5.) Massive Generational Gap with Jones winning voters under the age of 45 (60-38), narrowly losing the 45-64 Year Vote (47-51), and losing the 65+ Yr vote (40-59).

Sure some of that can be explained by a dramatic decrease in turnout among older White Republican Voters disgusted by Moore's behavior (See some of the rural precinct results that I have been posting), BUT looking at those 18-44 Year old numbers should frighten any Republican running for Statewide office in the Great State of Alabama.

Although Moore might have been the worst possible candidate Alabama 'Pubs could have nominated (All of the Sexual assault and harassment issues, some involving Minors likely narrowly sunk his campaign), still the "Republican Civil War" is pitting the "Populist Republicans" against the "Country Club Republicans", and right now the Populist Republicans don't like the dog meat they are getting fed from the Trump Administration and Republican Control of House & Senate, while meanwhile, the Southern "Country Club Republicans" started swinging heavily Dem between '12 and '16 looking at precinct results from Cities in TN, TX, and GA...

Now we are seeing this phenomenon where Doug Jones wins Mountain Brook (60-40) and HRC barely cracked 20% and Trump captured 60%.

Once these types of Upper-Middle Class White Republican Leaning and Indy Voters flip, they tend to flip hard, and frequently permanently.

For many in the wealthier parts of Alabama, this is their first time ever having voted Democratic for a Federal Election, and as we saw in the West Coast in the 1990s and early 2000s, NOVA and similar places in NC in the 2000s and accentuating under Obama, these are voters that will always turn out to vote, and don't like the Republican brand under the current Presidency not to mention the face of their current Party in Alabama.

This does make me wonder about what would happen in MS. It's more rural, has a higher % of the Black population, more racially polarized apparently, and also swung towards Trump (mainly due to depressed Black turnout last year).

[Virginiá]

I'm curious about Virginia's point of view but I am comfortable leaving this thread stickied for as long as there's active discussion about the race and its data. My guess is that it will die down in the next week or two and we can unsticky it then.

That was pretty much what I intended to do, barring any action on your part. It's like the other high profile special elections. So long as there is activity, I don't see a reason why it has to come down just yet.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

During the certification process Moor will find an 11,000 transposition mistake in Jefferson county that will put him ahead.

Ah right, I'm also the prince of Wales, and you are totally not a kiddie diddler.

[NOVA Green]

Calhoun County, Alabama:



Located in the Northeastern part of Alabama, in theory this should have been total Roy Moore Country, as one of the most Republican Counties of Northern/Northeastern 'Bama for quite a few decades...

Democrats have not won the County since '76, and although Carter only narrowly lost it in '80 against Reagan, Doug Jones performed better than any Democratic President in the County, even Bill Clinton '96, who only captured 43% of the Vote vs Dole's 49%.

Even Al Gore only won 41% of the Vote here in '00.

Dems have been stuck in the 33% range from '04-'12, dropping to their lowest vote share ever since '72.

Compare Calhoun County (74-21 White/African-American) vs neighboring Etowah County (Gadsden) which is (79-15 White/African-American), and Etowah County not only voted overwhelmingly for Carter in both '76/'80, but barely voted for Ronald Reagan in '84 by ~ 150 votes, and same with Bush Sr in '88.

Bill Clinton won Etowah County under Bill Clinton with about 48% of the vote, and Gore bagged 44%, and the results slip down to 24% by '16.

So... Roy Moore wins Etowah (59-39) and Calhoun only (55-44).

What gives with the tale of two Counties? Was originally trying to pull the precinct numbers from Etowah, but unfortunately these are not yet available and stumbled in Calhoun instead.

Ok--- how to break down the precinct numbers for Calhoun County?

Fortunately, the County makes it a bit easier than some to break down the results by municipality than some, although honestly their precinct maps are crap, so trying to separate City precincts from Uninc, etc gets a little bit sketch, but makes it easier to work with:

So here is the Vote Share by Place results in the 2016 GE and the 2017 US-SEN election...





Ok--- numbers get tricky because we don't really have a good precinct map for the County, so some of these precincts overlap with Oxford and Uninc areas, and quite frankly don't believe that Anniston which consists of only 25% of the County population represented 24% of the County Vote in '16, but still helps explain the Story...

So, what are the voting percentages by Place in Calhoun County?

2016:



2017:



Now the story of Calhoun County is an overall decline of support for both candidates, compared to the 2016 Presidential Election....

Jones received 12% less of the vote than HRC in '16, and Moore received a whopping 56% less of the Republican Vote than Trump in '16.

Interestingly enough, Jones biggest drop of support compared to HRC's numbers were in heavily Democratic African-American precincts in Anniston....



Now obviously the key thing here is that Anniston not only consists of 20% of the County vote, but is only a narrowly African-American City (52-44) ... which is still a driver of the local economy with the largest employers in the area being the Anniston Army Depot (4.3k employees), the Honda Plant outside of Oxford Alabama right South of Anniston, and overall the Anniston Metro precincts swung some 30% HRC>Jones (Despite the issues with cleanly separating municipal precinct lines)

Oxford has an MHI of $ 49.7k/Yr and is 78% White vs 12% African-American.



Here we see a 26% swing between HRC and Jones (Likely larger with cleaner precinct coding).

We could look at the 3rd largest City Jacksonville (68-26 White/Black) that went from (35-58) Trump to (54-44 Jones)...

Law Enforcement is the largest relative occupation (3.0%), followed by Food Service (10.2%), and Education (11.4%).

So, working Class Exurb North of Anniston that swung hard Dem.

Obviously we would be remiss not to mention the collapse of rural support in the '17 US-SEN election...

In Calhoun County, these places are overwhelmingly Old and White, but still represent roughly 34-35% of the County Vote.



So here we see both the biggest decline for Republicans compared to '16 Trump numbers ( -7.7k Votes) and the only precincts where Jones gained net voted +139....

Old 'Dawgs comin' home???