Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[Keep cool-idge]

I know this video has a ton of garbage but the first 20 seconds are real.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0AxVXM2Lts4

I think there is some voter fraud but I still think Doug Jones but by much less.

With Alabamas super strict voter ID law, I think this is pretty much impossible.

The guy said we came from parts of the country to vote and we got our guy elected.

That’s voter fraud 100%.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I know this video has a ton of garbage but the first 20 seconds are real.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0AxVXM2Lts4

I think there is some voter fraud but I still think Doug Jones but by much less.

Alabama has some of the toughest voter ID laws in the nation.
This also ends the idea that voter ID is about stopping voter fraud, because right wingers will still claim there was some sort of fraud whenever their candidate loses.

[DrScholl]

I know this video has a ton of garbage but the first 20 seconds are real.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0AxVXM2Lts4

I think there is some voter fraud but I still think Doug Jones but by much less.

With Alabamas super strict voter ID law, I think this is pretty much impossible.

The guy said we came from parts of the country to vote and we got our guy elected.

That’s voter fraud 100%.

To paraphrase your President, that's not fraud, it's smart /sarc

Seriously, it's incredibly hard to commit voter fraud in any state. For every illegal vote, you'd have to eliminate as many legitimate votes in order to not create a disparity between total votes and registered voters. You'd have to have someone on the inside actually tamper with voting boxes, which would be election fraud.

[OneJ]

I know this video has a ton of garbage but the first 20 seconds are real.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0AxVXM2Lts4

I think there is some voter fraud but I still think Doug Jones but by much less.

With Alabamas super strict voter ID law, I think this is pretty much impossible.

The guy said we came from parts of the country to vote and we got our guy elected.

That’s voter fraud 100%.

Clearly, you're misinterpreting the context of what he said. He's basically stating that people from across the country came to Alabama (or maybe gave money to Doug's campaign) and actively volunteered to help Jones win. Like the others before me said, voter fraud is very tough to commit, especially in a state like Alabama where it's really near impossible to do something like this and get away with it.

[Gustaf]

I'm happy that the religious extremist and alleged pedophile didn't win, but Doug Jones isn't much to write home about. He hardly ever mentioned his positions on anything, and constantly focused on how bad his opponent was, and not what he wanted to do for Alabama. He had no substance to him, and that's why he only won by 1.5% against a known pedophile, despite having 10x more funding and the entire media system & politicians (including some Republicans) behind him.

I never get how people decide on those things. Do you live in Alabama? I've seen Jones ads about what he wants to do for education for example and my impression was that he spent more time on his own stuff than on attacking Moore (though I don't know, I don't claim to have seen all his ads).

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Gustaf]

Greedo, you've been wrong about everything you ever said, you can't write legible English and you don't have a grasp of basic morality. Just stop expressing yourself, you have nothing worth saying and you also can't say things because you suck at language.

[Keep cool-idge]

Greedo, you've been wrong about everything you ever said, you can't write legible English and you don't have a grasp of basic morality. Just stop expressing yourself, you have nothing worth saying and you also can't say things because you suck at language.

I never said the race was rigged but that there seems to be voter fraud going around,Doug Jones did win but that guy said he and others came from all over the country to vote for Doug Jones.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Greedo, you've been wrong about everything you ever said, you can't write legible English and you don't have a grasp of basic morality. Just stop expressing yourself, you have nothing worth saying and you also can't say things because you suck at language.

I never said the race was rigged but that there seems to be voter fraud going around,Doug Jones did win but that guy said he and others came from all over the country to vote for Doug Jones.

How does a single guy saying something matter? if I say that I helped the Clinton campaign bus in 3,0000 Mexicans so she could win the popular vote, does that make you believe it?

[IceSpear]

Greedo, you've been wrong about everything you ever said, you can't write legible English and you don't have a grasp of basic morality. Just stop expressing yourself, you have nothing worth saying and you also can't say things because you suck at language.

I never said the race was rigged but that there seems to be voter fraud going around,Doug Jones did win but that guy said he and others came from all over the country to vote for Doug Jones.

How does a single guy saying something matter? if I say that I helped the Clinton campaign bus in 3,0000 Mexicans so she could win the popular vote, does that make you believe it?

I think you forgot a comma and a couple zeroes.

[Dr. Arch]

Greedo, you've been wrong about everything you ever said, you can't write legible English and you don't have a grasp of basic morality. Just stop expressing yourself, you have nothing worth saying and you also can't say things because you suck at language.

I never said the race was rigged but that there seems to be voter fraud going around,Doug Jones did win but that guy said he and others came from all over the country to vote for Doug Jones.

How does a single guy saying something matter? if I say that I helped the Clinton campaign bus in 3,0000 Mexicans so she could win the popular vote, does that make you believe it?

Only if she wins. Then it becomes undeniable evidence, lol.

[Virginiá]

Greedo, you've been wrong about everything you ever said, you can't write legible English and you don't have a grasp of basic morality. Just stop expressing yourself, you have nothing worth saying and you also can't say things because you suck at language.

I never said the race was rigged but that there seems to be voter fraud going around,Doug Jones did win but that guy said he and others came from all over the country to vote for Doug Jones.

How does a single guy saying something matter? if I say that I helped the Clinton campaign bus in 3,0000 Mexicans so she could win the popular vote, does that make you believe it?

This is just more partisanship at work. Very low burden of proof for accusations against Democrats, and the highest burden of proof for any and all accusations against Republicans.

Greedo's comments are a prime example of why you shouldn't believe everything you read on the internet. He doesn't really seem to question whether something is true or not so long as it makes him feel better about his political choices.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Greedo, you've been wrong about everything you ever said, you can't write legible English and you don't have a grasp of basic morality. Just stop expressing yourself, you have nothing worth saying and you also can't say things because you suck at language.

I never said the race was rigged but that there seems to be voter fraud going around,Doug Jones did win but that guy said he and others came from all over the country to vote for Doug Jones.

How does a single guy saying something matter? if I say that I helped the Clinton campaign bus in 3,0000 Mexicans so she could win the popular vote, does that make you believe it?

This is just more partisanship at work. Very low burden of proof for accusations against Democrats, and the highest burden of proof for any and all accusations against Republicans.

Greedo's comments are a prime example of why you shouldn't believe everything you read on the internet. He doesn't really seem to question whether something is true or not so long as it makes him feel better about his political choices.

Anyone who believes that video or any similar report: I challenge you to report it to the Alabama Secretary of State's office and post their response here.  If you're not willing to do so, it shows you don't really believe it, so please don't mention it again.  In short: put up or shut up.

[Keep cool-idge]

Greedo, you've been wrong about everything you ever said, you can't write legible English and you don't have a grasp of basic morality. Just stop expressing yourself, you have nothing worth saying and you also can't say things because you suck at language.

I never said the race was rigged but that there seems to be voter fraud going around,Doug Jones did win but that guy said he and others came from all over the country to vote for Doug Jones.

How does a single guy saying something matter? if I say that I helped the Clinton campaign bus in 3,0000 Mexicans so she could win the popular vote, does that make you believe it?

This is just more partisanship at work. Very low burden of proof for accusations against Democrats, and the highest burden of proof for any and all accusations against Republicans.

Greedo's comments are a prime example of why you shouldn't believe everything you read on the internet. He doesn't really seem to question whether something is true or not so long as it makes him feel better about his political choices.

Anyone who believes that video or any similar report: I challenge you to report it to the Alabama Secretary of State's office and post their response here.  If you're not willing to do so, it shows you don't really believe it, so please don't mention it again.  In short: put up or shut up.

Listen how many Moore times do I need to say it? Yes Jones he did win an impressive victory, also doing a recount is pointless but the SOS should look into voter fraud.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm happy that the religious extremist and alleged pedophile didn't win, but Doug Jones isn't much to write home about. He hardly ever mentioned his positions on anything, and constantly focused on how bad his opponent was, and not what he wanted to do for Alabama. He had no substance to him, and that's why he only won by 1.5% against a known pedophile, despite having 10x more funding and the entire media system & politicians (including some Republicans) behind him.

Have you actually watched the race or did you just copy-paste this crap from www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/ ?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Listen how many Moore times do I need to say it? Yes Jones he did win an impressive victory, also doing a recount is pointless but the SOS should look into voter fraud.

Let me tell you a secret: the Alabama SoS is one of us. Master Soros has him in his back pocket.
So stop speaking or else a black helicopter will appear in the following hour and will take you to a secret FEMA reeducation camp where they will brain-wash you and suddenly you'll find yourself liking gay sex, arugula and Lena Dunham TV series.

[Del Tachi]

Is anyone else still in disbelief about this election?

I am.

I think I look at the wikipedia entry for Doug Jones twice a day and smile.

I still have the tab with the NYT results page open on my browser. I occasionally scroll down to the projected margin chart.

Me as well to both the two above quotes.

I like thinking about how the return of the Southern Democrat came from Alabama of all places.

On that note, Jones has returned the number of white Congressional Democrats from the Deep South to a grand total of one. The last one was John Barrow.

What about Mark pryor the democrat from arkansas who lost in 2014?

Pryor and Barrow left Congress on the same day.

And Arkansas isn't the Deep South.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Greedo, you've been wrong about everything you ever said, you can't write legible English and you don't have a grasp of basic morality. Just stop expressing yourself, you have nothing worth saying and you also can't say things because you suck at language.

I never said the race was rigged but that there seems to be voter fraud going around,Doug Jones did win but that guy said he and others came from all over the country to vote for Doug Jones.

How does a single guy saying something matter? if I say that I helped the Clinton campaign bus in 3,0000 Mexicans so she could win the popular vote, does that make you believe it?

This is just more partisanship at work. Very low burden of proof for accusations against Democrats, and the highest burden of proof for any and all accusations against Republicans.

Greedo's comments are a prime example of why you shouldn't believe everything you read on the internet. He doesn't really seem to question whether something is true or not so long as it makes him feel better about his political choices.

I'm no Doug Jones fan (obviously), and I have seen that video numerous times, but I don't think it's evidence of voter fraud.  Those people were likely working on his campaign, and almost every campaign requires employees to establish residency and register to vote in the state/city/district.  So, I think that's what they were meaning- they did vote and vote legally, but had only been technically living in Alabama for a short period of time.

[Badger]

Greedo, you've been wrong about everything you ever said, you can't write legible English and you don't have a grasp of basic morality. Just stop expressing yourself, you have nothing worth saying and you also can't say things because you suck at language.

I never said the race was rigged but that there seems to be voter fraud going around,Doug Jones did win but that guy said he and others came from all over the country to vote for Doug Jones.

How does a single guy saying something matter? if I say that I helped the Clinton campaign bus in 3,0000 Mexicans so she could win the popular vote, does that make you believe it?

This is just more partisanship at work. Very low burden of proof for accusations against Democrats, and the highest burden of proof for any and all accusations against Republicans.

Greedo's comments are a prime example of why you shouldn't believe everything you read on the internet. He doesn't really seem to question whether something is true or not so long as it makes him feel better about his political choices.

I'm no Doug Jones fan (obviously), and I have seen that video numerous times, but I don't think it's evidence of voter fraud.  Those people were likely working on his campaign, and almost every campaign requires employees to establish residency and register to vote in the state/city/district.  So, I think that's what they were meaning- they did vote and vote legally, but had only been technically living in Alabama for a short period of time.

Or more likely, in his excitement he nearly blurted the term to vote for Jones rather than to get people to vote for Jones or to support Jones. I'll bet you ten-to-one the dude never voted for anybody in that race, but knocked on hundreds of doors and registered dozens of Voters

[Badger]

Greedo, you've been wrong about everything you ever said, you can't write legible English and you don't have a grasp of basic morality. Just stop expressing yourself, you have nothing worth saying and you also can't say things because you suck at language.

[Badger]

And for that matter I thought Greedo was banned?

At any rate, since the Boy Dunder is still around, I'm asking this question. Since vote fraud goes on, how much vote fraud did the Roy Moore campaign manage? Surely you don't think that voter fraud is only committed by blacks, do you?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And for that matter I thought Greedo was banned?

At any rate, since the Boy Dunder is still around, I'm asking this question. Since vote fraud goes on, how much vote fraud did the Roy Moore campaign manage? Surely you don't think that voter fraud is only committed by blacks, do you?

Greedo was put on mod review briefly, but is no longer on it.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

And for that matter I thought Greedo was banned?

At any rate, since the Boy Dunder is still around, I'm asking this question. Since vote fraud goes on, how much vote fraud did the Roy Moore campaign manage? Surely you don't think that voter fraud is only committed by blacks, do you?

Greedo was put on mod review briefly, but is no longer on it.

... how do you know this?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Oh for the love of God. Does the GOP want to know why Roy Moore lost? It wasn't ing voter fraud, it was the fact that they allowed Steve Bannon to choose their candidates.

[NOVA Green]

One thing I've been wondering since Election Night, is what exactly happened in Baldwin County...

You saw almost a 50% collapse of the Republican Vote share compared to Trump's performance in 2016.

Trump received 34.4k more votes than Roy Moore, and although Doug Jones gained 3.7k more votes than HRC for a net 20% increase of the Democratic Vote between '16 and '17, and 1.7k voters wrote-In someone else (Presumably mainly disgruntled Republicans), it appears that many 'Pub voters simply decided to stay home on Election Day.

The collapse in the 'Pub vote was visible in every precinct in the County, although to a much lesser extent in a heavily African-American Precinct in Bay Minette.

Overall the margins in the County swung 31% Democratic between '16 and '17, although this phenomenon was much more visible in a relatively small number of large precincts, which I'll get to shortly.

Unfortunately Baldwin County is a bit trickier than some to work with, as the precinct lines to not cleanly overlay with Municipal Boundaries, but still it gives us a starting point when it comes to overlapping election data with Census data.



Here's a link to the Baldwin County election office, which makes it easier to look at than the small picture posted above.

http://baldwincountyal.gov/docs/default-source/voting-precinct-changes/2016-precinct-map.pdf?sfvrsn=2

Baldwin County is overwhelmingly White (83%) and only 10% African-American, with the White share the population rising to 90% for the critical 55+ demographic. It is a bit older than the State at larger with 32% of the population 55+ Yrs.

It also tends to be a bit wealthier than most Counties in Alabama, with an MHI of $50.2k/Yr, which is perhaps even more remarkable considering the relatively size of the retiree population.

It appears to also have a lower proportion of Evangelical Christians than many other places in Alabama, including Southern Baptists, although honestly the data on this might be a bit sketchy.

Ok now, take a look at those precincts where there were the largest swings towards Jones, compared to the '16 US Pres election.



So what do these precincts share in common?

They are some of the wealthiest and most educated precincts within Baldwin County, with Precinct #7 overlapping pretty closely with a Census tract where the MHI is $82.8k/Yr, the Daphne precincts overlying closely with Census tracts where the MHI is $70-71k/ Yr, and Fairhope at about $58k/yr.

If you look at Educational attainment by Tract, you see roughly 55% of the population over 25 years have a Post-Secondary degree.

If we look at the total vote for these four precincts alone, they represented 24.2% of the County Vote in 2016, and jumped to 26.0% in 2017.

The 2016 US PRES numbers were 23,026 Total Votes---- (26.4% Dem), (68.0% Rep)
The 2017 US SEN numbers were 16,216 Total Votes--- (47.0% Dem), (50.0% Rep).

So here is a visual representation of the net vote change between '16 and '17 for these precincts:



So basically about 20% of drop-off in the Republican vote here were crossover Trump > Jones voters, combined with roughly 7% who wrote-in an alternative candidate (Assuming the WIs were 'Pub voters).

So basically those places that swung hardest Dem between '16 > '17 in Baldwin County did it both as a result of a significant chunk of cross-over voters, AND significant decrease in Republican enthusiasm in the wealthiest parts of the County.

There are similar patterns, but to less visible extent in White Middle and Upper-Middle Class precincts, a short commuting distance over the Bay to Mobile.

So how did Gulf Coast Retirees vote in 2016 and 2017?

So basically I'm limiting this to the three precincts along the Gulf Coast that are overwhelmingly 55+ and older, all of which actually have a pretty decent income for retirees, some $50-70k / YR MHI.



So interestingly enough here we observe a 33% Swing towards Doug Jones compared to HRC's performance in these older White retiree precincts, which is not something that I was particularly expecting...

A lot of this might explain the Moore/Bannon/Trump triangulation on Baldwin County in the closing days of the campaign.

So if we look at the overall vote share for Gulf Coast Retirees in these precincts, they were 11.0% of the total County Vote in '16, and 11.4% in '17.

The interesting thing here is that you had one of the largest % increase in the Democratic total vote between '16 > '17.... 

About 18% of the drop in 'Pub support (3880 total votes between '16 and '17) can be explained by Trump > Jones crossover voters, and about 5% from presumably 'Pub voters who wrote in another Candidate in '17.



So basically we have 37% of the '17 County Voting Population accounted for in just these seven precincts, where both cross-over voters, and decline in 'Pub Participation played a major role.