Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[PoliticalShelter]

FOX also did income on its non-exit poll thing, and here is what they have:

Under 25,000: Jones +24
25-50K: Jones +11
50-75K: Moore +5
75-100K: Moore +12
100-200K: Moore +16
200-250K: Jones +29
250K+: Jones +21

They also asked about a Strange-Jones race:
Strange 48
Jones 47

But, of course, take that with a grain of salt because things would have been so different, especially in terms of who showed up.

The divergence at $200K is striking.  What accounts for that?

Jones main gains in Alabama came from Urban areas and urban areas are generally very unequal usually having very wealthy people and and very poor people, with a very small genuine middle class
Since democrats already win the poor urban vote in Alabama it makes sense that Jones main gains would be with the wealthy.

[Adam Griffin]

To complement the original overall turnout change map I shared earlier: here's one showing raw turnout change for Dems between 2014-2017. Statewide, the Democratic raw vote increased by 57%. In Baldwin and Shelby Counties, Democratic raw vote increased by 160% (!).

[Bidenworth2020]

what was the result by CD?

[Tintrlvr]

what was the result by CD?

It was posted on page 5. See below. Despite winning statewide, Jones only won one CD (AL-07, the majority black CD).

[Alabama_Indy10]

Jones won the precinct that includes the Gadsden Mall:

Jones - 755 (74%)
Moore - 244 (24%)
Write Ins - 19 (1.9%)

[IceSpear]

Jones won the precinct that includes the Gadsden Mall:

Jones - 755 (74%)
Moore - 244 (24%)
Write Ins - 19 (1.9%)

What was the Clinton-Trump result?

[Alabama_Indy10]

Jones won the precinct that includes the Gadsden Mall:

Jones - 755 (74%)
Moore - 244 (24%)
Write Ins - 19 (1.9%)

What was the Clinton-Trump result?

Honestly I'm not sure, I'll have to look it up. It has a large amount of black voters.

[junior chįmp]

Jones won the precinct that includes the Gadsden Mall:

Jones - 755 (74%)
Moore - 244 (24%)
Write Ins - 19 (1.9%)

Lololololololololol

[Alabama_Indy10]

If someone wants to find the precinct results for 2016, here's the link. It won't pull up on my mobile. Pick Etowah county

http://sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voter/election-data

[OneJ]

Jones won the precinct that includes the Gadsden Mall:

Jones - 755 (74%)
Moore - 244 (24%)
Write Ins - 19 (1.9%)

What was the Clinton-Trump result?

Honestly I'm not sure, I'll have to look it up. It has a large amount of black voters.

59.67% Clinton
35.92% Trump

Huge swing from last year.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Trend map from 2016.



The fact that almost every county swung to Jones far below the average (the statewide swing was 29.3 points, but most counties are in the low 20s) suggests that turnout was a really big part of the story.

Also, LOL Lee County.

Love that Dem trend in the Northwest corner of the state. Industrial, unionized area. Jones did better there than any Senate candidate since Susan Parker in 2002 and better than any Presidential one since Al Gore in 2000 (from neighboring TN).

I like seeing them improve with those voters as well, I really hope it continues outside of the state as well.

I personally find it funny however, that Etowah County (Moore's hometown) was one of the only other rural ones that trended to the dems. 

Proof that the people who know Moore personally are the most likely to hate him...

[GeorgiaModerate]

It seems that certain people can't accept that their side can possibly lose without it being cheating:

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[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

It seems that certain people can't accept that their side can possibly lose without it being cheating:

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Lol, and these people called Hillary a sore loser.

[Antonio the Sixth]

what was the result by CD?

It was posted on page 5. See below. Despite winning statewide, Jones only won one CD (AL-07, the majority black CD).

Nice to see that Alabama is just as gerrymandered as more competitive GOP-controll States.

[Adam Griffin]

And here's the GOP map; I've combined all 3 into one.

Raw turnout (2017 compared to 2014)

Total: +14%
DEM: +57%
GOP:  -14%

[Anna Komnene]

It seems that certain people can't accept that their side can possibly lose without it being cheating:

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It'd be fun to hear their explanation for how these supposed MS blacks got registered to vote in AL and got AL photo IDs in order to vote. I swear some people don't even use their brains.

[DINGO Joe]

Here's a few maps. The first 3 should be self-explanatory. The fourth map uses the benchmarks (margins) for each county that NYT put out yesterday afternoon for a very close race, and then compares the final margins in each county to that. It's worth noting that as a whole/statewide, NYT's benchmarks were quite good - and even held up well in most of the counties.

Green means Moore's margin was less than expected/Jones' was greater than expected.

Red means Moore's margin was greater than expected/Jones' was less than expected.

Some very clear patterns but not inherently tied to any partisan or racial patterns in the state:

Beyond race, education and age of white voters were clearly the deciding factor (if that sounds familiar then you may have noticed Virginia last month)

The counties with highest % of over 25 w/bachelor degree or higher:

Shelby 41.4
Madison 40.7
Lee 34.4
Montgomery 31.5
Jefferson 31.4
Baldwin 29.5
Tuscaloosa 29.4

Shelby, Madison, Lee, Jefferson and Tuscaloosa all had the biggest swings for Jones vs 2012.

The swing in Montgomery was minimal because it's black majority and already had a high anti-Moore vote in 2012 (also state capitals general have the highest rate of educated A-A voters)

The swing in Baldwin was almost non-existent probably because it's much older than the other educated counties with 20% of the population over 65 vs 15% or less in the other educated counties.  Baldwin is as much an extension of the Redneck Rivera as it is a bedroom of Mobile.  It's got a bunch of old crackers longing for the days of George Wallace.

The results in the counties around the east side of Jefferson are particularly striking

Shelby 41.4 degreed 12.4 A-A  Moore 55.7%  12.5 swing to Jones
St. Clair 16.1 and 9.5  Moore 70.4%  less than 1 pt sing to Jones
Blount  13.0 and 1.6   Moore 81.8%  9.5% swing to Howdy Dummy

I haven't tried to delve into the NY Times Benchmark, but I don't understand how Jones could be viewed as having underperformed in Shelby.  Shelby seems alot like the Chesterfield of Alabama.

Really the results look like Virginia, it's just that Virginia has more whites with higher education and fewer A-A voters.  Younger educated whites moving towards the Dems and older uneducated whites moving even further into drooling deplorable dotardage.

[Holmes]

It seems that certain people can't accept that their side can possibly lose without it being cheating:

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Anyone else hearing this? Anyone? Anything to this rumor? Can anyone confirm? Just reporting.

Doesn't Alabama have voter ID requirements?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

what was the result by CD?

It was posted on page 5. See below. Despite winning statewide, Jones only won one CD (AL-07, the majority black CD).

Nice to see that Alabama is just as gerrymandered as more competitive GOP-controll States.

Alabama sort of has to be gerrymandered for republicans because of the requirement for a VRA district. You can draw a 5-2 R Map, but no better.

[Virginiá]

It seems that certain people can't accept that their side can possibly lose without it being cheating:

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Anyone else hearing this? Anyone? Anything to this rumor? Can anyone confirm? Just reporting.

Doesn't Alabama have voter ID requirements?

Yes lol. This is part of why the typical conservative excuse for photo ID laws - to give people confidence in elections - is full of crap. People who are constantly thinking their elections are being stolen are not going to stop just because of voter ID. They'll just come up with some new conspiracy theory that makes absolutely no sense.

Here is from further down that Twitter feed:

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I didn't know the Alabama Supreme Court was liberal

Never change, Twitter conservatives!

[DINGO Joe]

It seems that certain people can't accept that their side can possibly lose without it being cheating:

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Anyone else hearing this? Anyone? Anything to this rumor? Can anyone confirm? Just reporting.

Doesn't Alabama have voter ID requirements?

I heard the Moore campaign gave a bunch of West Virginians meth to get them on buses to bolster Moore but it didn't work because they all died on the way.  Somebody should ask Moore where he hid the buses of dead West Virginians.

[OneJ]

It seems that certain people can't accept that their side can possibly lose without it being cheating:

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As a black person myself from MS, also underage, I can confirm that it was true. What more could I say? Jones needed us to do the dirty stuff.

[Dr. Arch]

According to the AL SoS, voter turnout was just a notch over 40%.

http://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionNight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1000915

[Landslide Lyndon]

What happens if Moore never concedes?

The concession of the losing candidate is just convention, it doesn't actually matter

I'm pretty sure Marilyn Musgrave still hasn't conceded her 2008 race.

Alan Keyes never conceded to Barack Obama in 2004.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What happens if Moore never concedes?

The concession of the losing candidate is just convention, it doesn't actually matter

I'm pretty sure Marilyn Musgrave still hasn't conceded her 2008 race.

Alan Keyes never conceded to Barack Obama in 2004.

Also, Ron Paul never conceded the 2012 republican nomination to Mitt Romney.