Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[DrScholl]

Yes, Jean Smart would be perfect. Kayla Moore talks like a crazy version of Charlene Frazier anyway.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Leigh Corfman is suing Roy Moore for defamation.

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[DINGO Joe]

Roy Moore's Jewish lawyer voted for Doug Jones, raised money for his campaign

Turns out that wasn't Roy Moore's Jew lawyer, it was this guy



Who's been a Christian for 40 years, but calls himself a Messanic Jew because fundies like that kind of thing.  His entire biography is exactly what you'd expect from a Roy Moore "Jew".

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/01/roy_moores_wife_reveals_their.html#incart_river_home_pop

[DemocraticKing]

Leigh Corfman is suing Roy Moore for defamation.

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I hope she wins too. It would be gold for Corfman to win a defamation suit when Moore supporters have been going on about how Moore should sue his victims.

[Alabama_Indy10]

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/01/roy_moore_accusers_home_burns.html

The home of Moore accuser, Tina Johnson, has burned down. Being investigated as an arson.

[Doimper]

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/01/roy_moore_accusers_home_burns.html

The home of Moore accuser, Tina Johnson, has burned down. Being investigated as an arson.

"If these women are telling the truth, why didn't they come forward sooner?"

This is why.

[MAINEiac4434]

Every Moore supporter who defamed these women is responsible for this.

You should all be ashamed.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Who would expect that values voters would behave like mafia enforcers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who would expect that values voters would behave like mafia enforcers.

Surely you've heard of Family values.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Who would expect that values voters would behave like mafia enforcers.

Surely you've heard of Family values.

Sad but true.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The thing that just smothered Moore like a cheating estranged husband married to an eastern european (not that I would know). was raw vote totals in Jefferson county. Jones basically managed to stay in lockstep with Hillary's raw vote total in the county, and essentially get presidential turnout in the county. And keep in mind that this statewide election only saw about 63 voters for every 100 that participated in The Trump-Clinton race. Meanwhile Moore could not even get half of the raw total that Trump's poor performance in the county got him. This was simply too much for even Moore to make up, and thus lost the county by over 83,000 votes, versus the Trump loss of just over 22,000.

[NOVA Green]

The thing that just smothered Moore like a cheating estranged husband married to an eastern european (not that I would know). was raw vote totals in Jefferson county. Jones basically managed to stay in lockstep with Hillary's raw vote total in the county, and essentially get presidential turnout in the county. And keep in mind that this statewide election only saw about 63 voters for every 100 that participated in The Trump-Clinton race. Meanwhile Moore could not even get half of the raw total that Trump's poor performance in the county got him. This was simply too much for even Moore to make up, and thus lost the county by over 83,000 votes, versus the Trump loss of just over 22,000.

Absolutely no question that Jefferson County was the massive spike through the heart of the Moore campaign....

Here are a few graphs I posted back on Page 14 (Without re-quoting myself) after analyzing the precinct data from Jefferson County...











Voter Turnout by City (Apologies Turnout not listed on Chart)






So these graphs basically tell the story of Jefferson County when doing a 2016 Pres vs 2017 Senate compare & contrast:

To briefly summarize....

1.) Birmingham's share of the overall total vote in Jefferson County jumped from 32% to 36% between the '16 and '17 General elections. One of the major reasons for this was a massive drop in voter turnout in the most heavily rural precincts within the County

Birmingham is both a heavily African-American and Democratic City, and actually placed 3rd in total percentage of registered voters that voted in the 2017 US Senate race (49% !!!)...

Birmingham's total Democratic vote margins decreased between '16 and '17.

Still, the City accounted for some +62k Dem raw vote margins in 2017.

The 10% swing in Birmingham was likely a result of dramatic shifts among White voters within the City (Although I haven't looked too closely at the individual precinct results matched against Census Tract data it is a reasonable supposition.

2.) As I mentioned previously on this thread, every voter that flipped from Trump to Jones essentially was the equivalent of two votes using a "double-book accounting standard"....

The gravy for Doug Jones were the dramatic swings that we saw among White Upper-Middle Class voters in places like Mountain Brook (60% swing !!!), Vestavia Hills (50% swing !!), Homewood (45% swing!).

3.) So if the dramatic voter turnout in Birmingham was the bread and butter, massive swings among White suburban voters in those cities mentioned the gravy, low voter turnout in Moore's strongest places within the County (Rural JeffCo, Trussville, a WWC precinct in Bessmer, etc....) would be the mushy vegetable that no one wants to eat at a family Holiday Party but still takes a few nibbles, compliments the chef who is a family member, and when nobody is looking feeds what is left on the plate to the dog(s) in the house.

[Antonio the Sixth]

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/01/roy_moore_accusers_home_burns.html

The home of Moore accuser, Tina Johnson, has burned down. Being investigated as an arson.

Oh Christ...

I hope the culprits are found and punished with the full force of the law.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Anyone else still pull up the election map and results every couple of days and sit there smiling for a bit?

[TheSaint250]

Anyone else still pull up the election map and results every couple of days and sit there smiling for a bit?

The Wikipedia map looks so well-made

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Anyone else still pull up the election map and results every couple of days and sit there smiling for a bit?

The Wikipedia map looks so well-made

Yeah.

[TheSaint250]

Anyone else still pull up the election map and results every couple of days and sit there smiling for a bit?

The Wikipedia map looks so well-made

Yeah.

I still love how it went from Sessions running unopposed to Doug Jones

[riceowl]

Hey -

Is there any update on the lawsuits, et al, from or to the abuse victims? Just curious if this stuff just dies after the election or not.

[Alabama_Indy10]

http://www.al.com/news/huntsville/index.ssf/2018/04/roy_moore_to_discuss_allegatio.html

It never ends. Roy Moore has filed a lawsuit, naming at least 4 accusers, claiming conspiracy against his campaign.

[Sestak]

Oh Jesus f**king Christ

[MAINEiac4434]

http://www.al.com/news/huntsville/index.ssf/2018/04/roy_moore_to_discuss_allegatio.html

It never ends. Roy Moore has filed a lawsuit, naming at least 4 accusers, claiming conspiracy against his campaign.

Just put him in jail.

[libertpaulian]

So, how does Jones win in 2020?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

So, how does Jones win in 2020?

He probably needs 2020 to be a fairly D leaning environment. I think he has a 50/50 shot at winning if dems beat Trump by 10% nationally & he retains his pretty high current approvals (~53% approval).

Being a popular incumbent helps a lot, but obviously his GOP opponent will most likely not be nearly as bad as Roy.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Trump would have to lose the NPV by about 20% for Doug Jones to win re-election.

In other words, Doug Jones is hopeless.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Trump would have to lose the NPV by about 20% for Doug Jones to win re-election.

In other words, Doug Jones is hopeless.

He has a 53% approval rating and incumbency advantage is a thing. He's just as well liked as shelby.