From 2000-2050, which party will control the presidency for the most time?

[Sir Mohamed]

Just wild guessing: From 2000 to 2050, which party will control the presidency for the most time? Including the final year of Bill Clinton's term, both parties have a combined of 9 years.

I believe Democrats will mostly occupy the Oval Office, since demographics and the overall map is against them. Trump's upset doesn't change this (I'd change my assessment if the he/the GOP keeps winning). I think it is likely that a Democrat will return to the WH in 2021 and get two terms. That would require Dems just one more two-termer from 2029 to 2049 (5 terms).

[King Lear]

Unfortunately I believe republicans will dominate this period, it's not until after 2050 that the democrats will begin to dominate American politics again.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If the GOP keeps going down the Trumpian route, the Democratic Party will control the Presidency for most of 2000-2050.

[MassTerp94]

If demographics are any indication, the Democrats. 2016 was a fluke. The Republican Party must get its act together unless they want to go the way of the Whig Party.

[dw93]

The Democrats. As it is, Trump had to run against the Reaganite Republican orthodoxy and tap into traditionally Democratic voters in the Rust Belt to win. With him thus far attempting to govern like a run of the mill Republican, those traditionally Democratic voters, barring some extraordinary circumstances, will most likely swing back to the Democrats.

[OSR stands with Israel]

So up till 2020 this is what the score will be

Republicans: 12 Years
Democrats: 8 years


So for the next 30 years, this is the way the control of the presidency has to go for Dems to have controlled the White House longer.


2020-2032 : Democrats
2032-2040: Republicans
2040-2048: Democrats
2048-2050 : Republicans



In my opinion it will likely go like this:

2020-2028: Democrats
2028-2036: Republicans
2036-2044: Democrats
2044-2050 : Republicans

[Dr. MB]

I predict there will be a Dem victory in '20 and '24, a GOP victory in '28, '32, and '36, and Dem in '40, '44, and '48.

[dw93]

My Prediction for the Presidency: 2021-2053:

Democratic Win:

2020, 2024, 2028, 2044, 2048

Total Years of Democratic Presidencies (with 2008 and '12 factored in )=28 years

GOP Wins:

2032, 2036, 2040, 2052

Total Years of Republican Presidencies (with 2000, '04, and '16 factored in minus the 2053-57 Presidential term )= 24 years

Conclusion: The Democrats have the GOP beat by four years.


Another Prediction (if my 1st one is correct)

The GOP will begin to dominate the Presidency in 2052.

[ElectionsGuy]

Republicans need four more presidential wins and Democrats need five. Technically if you count Bill Clinton from 2000-2001 4 more Democratic wins would put them at 25 years, so.... unclear at this point.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Millenials are an extremely Democratic group and will be the dominant voting bloc by the 2030s, so I don't see how Democrats could fail to control the presidency more often.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

My Prediction for the Presidency: 2021-2053:

Democratic Win:

2020, 2024, 2028, 2044, 2048

Total Years of Democratic Presidencies (with 2008 and '12 factored in )=28 years

GOP Wins:

2032, 2036, 2040, 2052

Total Years of Republican Presidencies (with 2000, '04, and '16 factored in minus the 2053-57 Presidential term )= 24 years

Conclusion: The Democrats have the GOP beat by four years.


Another Prediction (if my 1st one is correct)

The GOP will begin to dominate the Presidency in 2052.

I have long been thinking this even before 2016 elections:

Dem: 2020, 2024, 2028
GOP: 2032
Dem 2036, 2040
GOP 2044
Dem 2048
GOP 2052

Democrats gain majorities in Congress sometime around 2020 and hold them until 2038.


In fact I have been toying with a scenario like this in my head as far back as the mid 2000's.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

A lot depends on how well Republicans can thread the needle between Trumpism (or perhaps just economic populism since tying it to Trump gives people the wrong idea in conversations like this), the establishment and rising generational demographics (especially on some of the social issues and FP). The sooner they do so, the earlier they might be able to reclaim the Presidency.

[Sumner 1868]

It seems a child abuser losing by a point has revived the demographics-are-destiny-and-we-shall-always-have-supermajorities-forever myth. Not good.

[MT Treasurer]

My guess:

2020 - GOP (very close, and they lose the PV by even more than in 2016)
2024 - DEM (landslide)
2028 - DEM (landslide)
2032 - DEM (close, but far from a nailbiter)
2036 - GOP (close)
2040 - GOP
2044 - DEM
2048 - DEM

So the Democrats.

[wxtransit]

2020 - R
2024 - D
2028 - D
2032 - D
2036 - R
2040 - R
2044 - D
2048 - R

Republicans - 7 terms
Democrats - 6 terms

[100% pro-life no matter what]

2020: Left-wing D
2024: "Conservative establishment" R
2028: "Conservative establishment" R reelected
2032: Southern Democrat
2036: Southern Democrat reelected
2040: Center-right Republican
2044: Center-right Republican reelected
2048: Somewhat more conservative Republican VP wins a promotion

2001-2050: 30 years GOP, 20 years Democrats

[dw93]

My Prediction for the Presidency: 2021-2053:

Democratic Win:

2020, 2024, 2028, 2044, 2048

Total Years of Democratic Presidencies (with 2008 and '12 factored in )=28 years

GOP Wins:

2032, 2036, 2040, 2052

Total Years of Republican Presidencies (with 2000, '04, and '16 factored in minus the 2053-57 Presidential term )= 24 years

Conclusion: The Democrats have the GOP beat by four years.


Another Prediction (if my 1st one is correct)

The GOP will begin to dominate the Presidency in 2052.

I have long been thinking this even before 2016 elections:

Dem: 2020, 2024, 2028
GOP: 2032
Dem 2036, 2040
GOP 2044
Dem 2048
GOP 2052

Democrats gain majorities in Congress sometime around 2020 and hold them until 2038.


In fact I have been toying with a scenario like this in my head as far back as the mid 2000's.

My Prediction for Congress 2019-2053:

2019-2021 House: Narrow Dem Majority
2019-2021 Senate: Split

2021-2023 House: Dem Majority
2021-2023 Senate: Dem Majority

2023-2025 House: Narrow GOP Majority
2023-2025 Senate: Narrow Dem Majority

2025-2027 House: Dem Majority
2025-2027 Senate: Narrow Dem Majority

2027-2029 House: GOP Majority
2027-2029 Senate: Narrow GOP Majority

2029-2031 House: GOP Majority
2029 2031 Senate: Split Majority

2031-2033 House: GOP Majority
2031-2033 Senate: GOP Majority

2033-2035 House: GOP Majority
2033-2035 Senate: GOP Majority

2035-2037 House: Dem Majority
2035-2037 Senate: Dem Majority

2037-2039 House: Dem Majority
2037-2039: Senate: Dem Majority

2039-2041 House: Dem Majority
2039-2041 Senate: Dem Majority

2041-2043 House: Dem Majority
2041-2043 Senate: GOP Majority

2043-2045 House: Dem Majority
2043-2045 Senate: Dem Majority

2045-2047 House: Dem Majority
2045-2047 Senate: Dem Majority

2047-2049 House: Dem Majority
2047-2049 Senate: Dem Majority

2049-2051 House: Dem Majority
2049-2051 Senate: Dem Majority

2051-2053 House: GOP Majority
2051-2053 Senate: GOP Majority

Dem Total House: 22 years
Dem Total Senate: 20 years
Split Senate: 4 years
GOP House Majority: 12 years
GOP Senate Majority: 10 years

[dw93]

Whichever embraces populism. It may not be popular now, but just wait. In 20 years, there are gonna be a lot of pissed off 30/40 somethings angry at the fact that they went massiveley in debt learning how to do a job that was "safe" and "secure" and either outsourced, automated, or replaced by a foreigner who's been learning how to do that job since they could wipe their own ass.

I think the Democrats are more likely to embrace Populism than the GOP. A failed Trump Presidency will kill any chance of the GOP embracing it.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Ok so we have already had at least

House
2000-2007 GOP
2007-2011 Dem
2011-2019 GOP
(15 years for GOP v 4 years for Dems)

Senate
2000-2007 GOP (not counting brief period of Dem control between swearing in of the 107th Congress and President George W Bush)
2007-2015 Dem
2015-2019 GOP
(11 years for GOP v 8 years for Dems)

President
2000-2001 Democrat
2001-2009 GOP
2009-2017 Democrat
2017-2021-GOP
(12 years for GOP v 9 years for Dems)

Projecting into the future
2018
House: Dem Majority
Senate: GOP Majority

2020
President: Dem win
House: Dem Majority
Senate: Dem Majority 

2022
House: GOP Majority
Senate: Dem Majority 

2024
President:Dem win
House: Dem Majority
Senate: Dem Majority 

2026
House: GOP win
Senate:Dem Majority 

2028
President:Dem win
House: Dem Majority
Senate: Dem Majority 

2030
House: Dem Majority
Senate:Dem Majority 

2032
President:GOP win
House: GOP Majority
Senate: GOP Majority

2034
House: Dem win
Senate Dem win

2036
President:GOP win
House: GOP Majority
Senate: GOP Majority

2038
House: Dem Majority
Senate: Dem Majority

2040
President: Dem win
House: Dem Majority
Senate: Dem Majority

2042
House: GOP Majority
Senate: GOP Majority

2044
President: Dem win
House:GOP Majority
Senate: Dem Majority

2046
House: GOP Majority
Senate: GOP Majority

2048
President: GOP win
House: GOP win
Senate: GOP win

So entering 2050 we get something like this
We get
House: (29  years for GOP v 21 years for Dems)
Senate: (21 years for GOP v  29 years for Dems)
President: (21 years for GOP v 29 years for Dems)

[Skill and Chance]

My Prediction for the Presidency: 2021-2053:

Democratic Win:

2020, 2024, 2028, 2044, 2048

Total Years of Democratic Presidencies (with 2008 and '12 factored in )=28 years

GOP Wins:

2032, 2036, 2040, 2052

Total Years of Republican Presidencies (with 2000, '04, and '16 factored in minus the 2053-57 Presidential term )= 24 years

Conclusion: The Democrats have the GOP beat by four years.


Another Prediction (if my 1st one is correct)

The GOP will begin to dominate the Presidency in 2052.

I have long been thinking this even before 2016 elections:

Dem: 2020, 2024, 2028
GOP: 2032
Dem 2036, 2040
GOP 2044
Dem 2048
GOP 2052

Democrats gain majorities in Congress sometime around 2020 and hold them until 2038.


In fact I have been toying with a scenario like this in my head as far back as the mid 2000's.

That's a lot of one-termers!  And it would basically be the reverse of the late 19th century Republican strength, particularly if you have Congress flipping back in 2046/48.  I think 2020-28 being D/D/D is very plausible now, particularly if the economy weakens.  You must see Millennials staying very Dem into adulthood/parenthood like the FDR generation did?  Which of these elections do you think will be close?

[Burke Bro]

2020: R
2024: D
2028: D
2032: D
2036: R
2040: R
2044: D
2048: D?
2052: R

Could easily be either. I'll go with Democrat, since Republicans controlled the presidency for most of the time between 1950 and 2000.

[Skill and Chance]

As of now, I'm thinking:

2018: D midterm wave, House flips D, Senate between 51R/49D and 51D/49R
2020: R (Trump PV win by 0.5-2%)
2022: Another D midterm wave, Senate definitely flips Dem if it didn't in 2018
2024: D, wins by double digits as economy crashed during 2nd Trump term
2028: D, reelected by double digits, progressive president/congress on par with FDR/LBJ eras
2030: weakening economy, Senate flips R, House very close D hold
2032: D, former VP wins narrowly (possibly with EV/PV split in their favor due to narrow wins in FL/IL/NY/TX)
2034: slight D gains during midterm due to newly booming economy
2036: D, wins by double digits due to economic boom, regains control of Senate, continues very progressive agenda
2040: R, wins narrowly, R Senate and D House
2044: R, wins by 5-10% in the PV, House finally flips R
2048: D, wins narrowly, R's hold House and Senate
2050: R midterm wave, win nearly 2/3rds in congress, D president moves to center
2052: D, wins narrowly, big R Congressional majorities hold

So that's RDDDDRRDD, with Democrats holding the WH a majority of the time due to finally breaking the 8 year curse in 2032.

[mvd10]

2020: Democratic candidate beats Trump/Pence by a decent margin (the coalition would be different depending on the Republican though), D trifecta
2024: Republican narrowly wins because of the weak economy
2028: Democratic landslide (they already took the house and the senate by a landslide in 2026)
2032: Democratic president comfortably reelected
2036: Democratic candidates once again wins, but narrowly (Republicans won atleast 1 chamber in 2034)
2040: Republican semi-landslide (they already won congress in a landslide in 2038)
2044: Republican semi-landslide
2048: Democratic candidate narrowly wins

[MT Treasurer]

2030: Senate flips R

This would be an absolute bloodbath, especially if Democrats win back the Senate next year and make even more gains in 2024. I could see the GOP picking up MO, IN, WV, MT, PA, MN, MI, WI, ME and maybe even FL and ND. TX and MS would probably be vulnerable as well, assuming the Ds won those states in 2024.

[Skill and Chance]

2030: Senate flips R

This would be an absolute bloodbath, especially if Democrats win back the Senate next year and make even more gains in 2024. I could see the GOP picking up MO, IN, WV, MT, PA, MN, MI, WI, ME and maybe even FL and ND. TX and MS would probably be vulnerable as well, assuming the Ds won those states in 2024.

Yes.  It could be something like +12R in one cycle.  But the weird part is that almost all of the currently R-held seats in that class could be D-held by 2036/42, after half the currently D-held ones flip back.  It's the most "behind the times" senate map, and between Trump's approval and the likelihood that 2024 is either Trump's 8th year itch election or a 1st term Dem incumbent seeking reelection, looks likely to stay that way for a while.