AL-Emerson: Moore +9

[Devout Centrist]

Is Emerson still landline-only?

They have added an online component and weigh their results 50/50 landline/online.

I hope they didn't just add a GCS and call it a day.

[Pollster]

Is Emerson still landline-only?

They have added an online component and weigh their results 50/50 landline/online.

I hope they didn't just add a GCS and call it a day.

The methodology in their press release states that they used SSI, which is more or less the industry standard.

[Matty]

How is it possible that there is a 19 point gap between these polls?

[Sir Mohamed]

How is it possible that there is a 19 point gap between these polls?

As has been said about ten times on here marty, it's differentials in turnout modeling.

Well, there were some VA-Gov polls in the days before the election that showed Gillespie up by 8 or so.

[Mr. Smith]

This sucks.

Its not so bad, Moore will give democrats plenty of positive coverage over the next 20 or so years until he dies in office.

Um, a Moore victory should be one of the most demoralizing things for a Democrat.

In Alabama? A race that should never have been competitive in the first place?

A literal pedophile might be elected to the US Senate, and we're gonna call that a victory?

If Moore can start being used as an albatross in the same way Pelosi stopped Ossoff and Quist, then yes, it is a victory. Not as great of one, but one nonetheless.

[Brittain33]

Well, there were some VA-Gov polls in the days before the election that showed Gillespie up by 8 or so.

Were there? I thought there were a small number showing a tiny lead for Gillespie, and that plus "momentum" and Democratic doom and gloom had people imagining Gillespie was going to win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How is it possible that there is a 19 point gap between these polls?

As has been said about ten times on here marty, it's differentials in turnout modeling.

Well, there were some VA-Gov polls in the days before the election that showed Gillespie up by 8 or so.

And a Q poll with Northam +17, so that's a 25-point spread.

[Brittain33]

Trolling deleted.

[user12345]

I'm just waiting for Moore to be tackled on the Senate floor when he whips a gun out because someone calls him a pedophile.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

JUNK POLL!

Also, when did you people start believing Emerson polls?

[Pericles]

This is a more-Moore friendly poll. All these different polls just show is the race is a tossup.

[Babeuf]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/940264109261631489

Nate Cohn says that this Emerson poll is only modeling a 17% black electorate. Seems very low.

[DrScholl]

LMAO

[Holmes]

This sucks.

Are you ok now?

[Brittain33]

This sucks.

Are you ok now?

A little better, thanks.

[Pollster]

Looks like the undoing here was weighting the sample by results of the 2016 election - an incredibly, incredibly misguided move in projecting turnout for a special election.

[Pollster]

Also worth noting that pushing undecided voters to pick a candidate is an incredibly risky move in polling (undecided voters are more volatile, by nature are not committed to a candidate, and are hit-or-miss regarding whether or not they actually turn out) that likely shifted the results of Emerson's tracking polls of this race towards Moore.

[The Other Castro]

Barry Burden‏ @bcburden
Analysis by UW soc grad student Nathan Seltzer says @EmersonPolling showing Moore +10 included internet respondents who might not have even been Alabama residents. #ALSen
https://t.co/gSdNZh03pV

https://twitter.com/bcburden/status/941028291414249474

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Yup, it's gone.

It was fun while it lasted.

[Ebsy]

Emerson (as well as many internet pollsters) are obviously using unsound practices in their polling. Deeply disturbing and something the industry needs to reckon with.

[Landslide Lyndon]

That poll had an electorate that was only 17% black. I'm surprised they didn't show an even larger Moore lead.