TN House: Will District 56 Flip in 2018?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Tennessee's 56th District is the only district located entirely within Nashville/Davidson County (the city/county government is one in the same) currently represented by a Republican (Speaker Beth Harwell).  Speaker Harwell is running for governor, leaving a open seat election for TN-56.  This is the only Clinton district represented by a Republican in Tennessee (and one of only two districts that Trump failed to win by double digits represented by Republicans). 

There is actually also one Trump/Democrat district in Nashville, the 50th, represented by Bo Mitchell, who defeated Nathan Massey 52-48 in 2016.  Mitchell survived scares in 2012, 2014, and 2016, but probably should be safe in 2018 in his Western Davidson County district that went from Romney +15 to Trump +6.

Back to the 56th:
Constituency: Belle Meade, Green Hills, Forest Hills, Oak Hills etc. (essentially anchored by wealthy areas to the south and west of downtown)
2012-PRES: Romney +23
2016-PRES: Clinton +0.4
2016: Harwell (R) 58, Moth (D) 42
2014: Harwell (R) 63, Moth (D) 37

I have it at Lean R right now.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Nope. These people clearly voted Hillary with the hopes that Republicans would obstruct her and keep her tied up in investigations and impeachment proceedings the whole four years.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I'm banking on a realignment where educated, upper class whites switch to D's for a while now, but seeing Belle Meade voting Democrat is a little much for even me to believe. So I'm going to say no.

[libertpaulian]

If a seat like this flips, it means that there's a national bloodbath for the GOP.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Doubt it, Strong Lean R.

[PoliticalShelter]

What is it with these "When will [insert wealthy Southern county/area] vote Democrat" that keep popping up recently.

[Holmes]

I'm banking on a realignment where educated, upper class whites switch to D's for a while now, but seeing Belle Meade voting Democrat is a little much for even me to believe. So I'm going to say no.

A realignment can still happen while an area still votes for an entrenched incumbent.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I'm banking on a realignment where educated, upper class whites switch to D's for a while now, but seeing Belle Meade voting Democrat is a little much for even me to believe. So I'm going to say no.

A realignment can still happen while an area still votes for an entrenched incumbent.

I'm not saying the realignment isn't happening (I've witnessed the front of that storm happen by growing up in Virginia during the 90s/2000s), I just don't think that area of Nashville is likely to be an area that a +25 Democratic boost. But, hey, I'll take it if it happens. I remember being there months after the 2016 election and seeing a handfull of Jim Cooper signs that were still up.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Bump- this seat did flip 51-49 for Bob Freeman (a wealthy Nashville Democratic donor) against Republican doctor Brent Moody.  The blue swell in Tennessee stopped right at the Davidson/Williamson county line that borders this district, as all Williamson County Republicans won landslide victories.

[Storr]

Bump- this seat did flip 51-49 for Bob Freeman (a wealthy Nashville Democratic donor) against Republican doctor Brent Moody.  The blue swell in Tennessee stopped right at the Davidson/Williamson county line that borders this district, as all Williamson County Republicans won landslide victories.

Did any other seats in Tennessee flip for either party?

[Del Tachi]

Bump- this seat did flip 51-49 for Bob Freeman (a wealthy Nashville Democratic donor) against Republican doctor Brent Moody.  The blue swell in Tennessee stopped right at the Davidson/Williamson county line that borders this district, as all Williamson County Republicans won landslide victories.

Did any other seats in Tennessee flip for either party?

Per NYT, GOP majority in the TN House is now 73-26 (D+1).  The Dems gained Harwell's seat (HD 56) and defeated an incumbent, Eddie Smith, in HD 13 (inner-ring Knoxville suburbs).  The GOP gained a seat in HD 82 in rural West TN, where Demosaur Craig Fitzhugh had retired.   

In the State Senate no seats changed hands, but Republican Brian Kelsey had a tight reelection, 51-49.  His district (SD 31) is based in East Memphis, which is the affluent, White "streetcar suburb" part of the city.

So Tennessee seems to have mirrored the national trend of Democrats playing well in cities and suburbs while getting blown out everywhere else.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Bump- this seat did flip 51-49 for Bob Freeman (a wealthy Nashville Democratic donor) against Republican doctor Brent Moody.  The blue swell in Tennessee stopped right at the Davidson/Williamson county line that borders this district, as all Williamson County Republicans won landslide victories.

Did any other seats in Tennessee flip for either party?

Per NYT, GOP majority in the TN House is now 73-26 (D+1).  The Dems gained Harwell's seat (HD 56) and defeated an incumbent, Eddie Smith, in HD 13 (inner-ring Knoxville suburbs).  The GOP gained a seat in HD 82 in rural West TN, where Demosaur Craig Fitzhugh had retired.   

In the State Senate no seats changed hands, but Republican Brian Kelsey had a tight reelection, 51-49.  His district (SD 31) is based in East Memphis, which is the affluent, White "streetcar suburb" part of the city.

So Tennessee seems to have mirrored the national trend of Democrats playing well in cities and suburbs while getting blown out everywhere else.

With the exception of non-Davidson Nashville suburbs, which were still more Republican than the state as a whole by a good margin.

[Del Tachi]

Bump- this seat did flip 51-49 for Bob Freeman (a wealthy Nashville Democratic donor) against Republican doctor Brent Moody.  The blue swell in Tennessee stopped right at the Davidson/Williamson county line that borders this district, as all Williamson County Republicans won landslide victories.

Did any other seats in Tennessee flip for either party?

Per NYT, GOP majority in the TN House is now 73-26 (D+1).  The Dems gained Harwell's seat (HD 56) and defeated an incumbent, Eddie Smith, in HD 13 (inner-ring Knoxville suburbs).  The GOP gained a seat in HD 82 in rural West TN, where Demosaur Craig Fitzhugh had retired.   

In the State Senate no seats changed hands, but Republican Brian Kelsey had a tight reelection, 51-49.  His district (SD 31) is based in East Memphis, which is the affluent, White "streetcar suburb" part of the city.

So Tennessee seems to have mirrored the national trend of Democrats playing well in cities and suburbs while getting blown out everywhere else.

With the exception of non-Davidson Nashville suburbs, which were still more Republican than the state as a whole by a good margin.

If you're talking about Williamson County I see what you're saying - Bill Lee and Marsha Blackburn both bested their statewide percentages in Williamson.  However, I would describe Williamson as more exurban than suburban.