Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Wisconsin+17]

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I was thinking more of Gore, or Hillary and how the election was 'stolen' LOL.

Funny how the shoe is different on the other side.

It's not like this was a blowout election. We'll see what comes of it.

[BuckeyeNut]

I am so proud of/for my state!

And we are all so proud of you!

[Koharu]

I am a white woman from Alabama and I am deeply shocked, I stayed at home because I could not vote for Moore, but it hurts my heart that a Democrat wins the state, it really is a nightmare.

It's the first time I've felt so bad

May I ask why it is a nightmare? If you couldn't for for Moore, what other outcome were you hoping for?

I thought it was a safe race no matter what my vote, I really hope this comes to court

If you couldn't vote for him, why would you think others wouldn't feel the same way? And if you couldn't bring yourself to vote for him, why in the world would you want him representing you?

[Wisconsin+17]

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Christ. Sir One-Note continues to battle against the dark forces in America.

[Kamala]

Did Jones win any CD other than Sewell's?

[Badger]

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I'm the quack? LOL.

NYT had the race at 10% Jones at one point. Yeah, sure I missed. But we're in recount territory. I did predict Jones under 50 percent well early.

So obviously I was close. Just gotta tweak a few things.

Please, child. They also had him as low as .2% as well. They switched their voting scale based on returns, but almost always had Jones winning. You "called Moore winning' with most of the vote out based on your "formula".

Seriously, you've been a complete dick tonight in every single post. This isn't an issue of politics, just playing nice. Hell, even Naso has shown some class here.

So to repeat, until you learn how to talk with grown-ups, GTFO.

[Edu]

Reading that dipsh**t Ben Kenobi complain is glorious. I wish this stupid forum had comedy like that more often.

[Ye We Can]

I am so proud of/for my state!

And we are all so proud of you!

Same. I have my disagreements with you, but I am glad you turned out to have integrity.

[Badger]

I am so proud of/for my state!

I'm 49.9% so as well.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

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I was thinking more of Gore, or Hillary and how the election was 'stolen' LOL.

Funny how the shoe is different on the other side.

It's not like this was a blowout election. We'll see what comes of it.

Your tears are delicious

[Badger]

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Christ. Sir One-Note continues to battle against the dark forces in America.

Sexually assaulting teenage girls isn't "dark forces"?

You need a date, but I suspect you would only get one "Roy Moore style".

[fluffypanther19]

I am a white woman from Alabama and I am deeply shocked, I stayed at home because I could not vote for Moore, but it hurts my heart that a Democrat wins the state, it really is a nightmare.

It's the first time I've felt so bad

May I ask why it is a nightmare? If you couldn't for for Moore, what other outcome were you hoping for?

I thought it was a safe race no matter what my vote, I really hope this comes to court

lmao. you will be fine. Doug jones will be a fine senator

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Just a little tidbit I made:



Quite a few flips in both directions.  

[Badger]

I am a white woman from Alabama and I am deeply shocked, I stayed at home because I could not vote for Moore, but it hurts my heart that a Democrat wins the state, it really is a nightmare.

It's the first time I've felt so bad

May I ask why it is a nightmare? If you couldn't for for Moore, what other outcome were you hoping for?

I thought it was a safe race no matter what my vote, I really hope this comes to court

Obvious troll is obvious.

[Ye We Can]

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Christ. Sir One-Note continues to battle against the dark forces in America.

You know it buddy.  Don't worry though, Im sure Ted Cruz will pull it through by a few points, despite his continuing slide into irrelevancy.

[BuckeyeNut]

Did Jones win any CD other than Sewell's?

He'd almost have to have, right?

[Koharu]

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Christ. Sir One-Note continues to battle against the dark forces in America.

Sexually assaulting teenage girls isn't "dark forces"?

You need a date, but I suspect you would only get one "Roy Moore style".

Okay, please don't say stuff like this. Going on a date or having sex doesn't make one mature, and implying that it does is disgusting. As much as I dislike what Ben has posted here tonight, implying that he is inappropriate with women (and/or girls) is also just wrong. If you want people to grow up, be the change you'd like to see, please.

[Wisconsin+17]

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They had Jones winning by 10% at the same time. What kind of model is that? Mine had a slight Moore lead, but a lead nonetheless and got gradually more confident as time went on.

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Christ. Every other post in the hour before the election was 'pedophile'. You want class? Clean up your own cesspit. Also you had Extreme, me and classic as 'pedophiles' for standing up for Moore.

Whatever you say, Sir One-Note.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

amiright.

No, but thanks for asking.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

As happy as I am I can't shake the fact that half of the state voted for a man who had considerable evidence showing that he was predatory against underage women all because he had an R next to his name.

Yeah, this is just a minimum threshold good thing but still a positive result.

I thought write in had to have won or be within recount territory of winning to get counted. You're not supposed to write in someone that's on the ballot.

Yet people do, so in theory Moore might have gotten all those votes.  More likely, there will be a few Doug Jones votes from people who wanted Moore to lose but weren't willing to mark the Democratic box.  Might even be enuf to give Jones a majority win instead of just a plurality.

[IceAgeComing]

The problem that the NYT model had this time that it didn't in Virginia is there they had access to Precinct level data for both past elections and this election which meant that they could do a like-for-like comparison with the data and therefore it meant that they had a much better idea what the outcome would be earlier.  Here they didn't have that so they were comparing a complete data set with incomplete data and having to make assumptions based on the data that they had which is always going to be dodgy.  I think that it did a good job though; by the time we began to get a significant amount of data in it settled at a Jones lead and while that did move around a lot and gradually fell it settled at being roughly in the right range - it spent lots of time around 2% and it ended up at 1.5% which is pretty good.  Certainly better than whatever pseudoscientific rubbish Kenobi came up with; perhaps he ought to go back to sending people creepy PMs rather than the political analysis gig.  One other thing: the NYT is saying that over 98% of votes have been counted - using that 98% figure would mean 26,000 votes out there waiting to be counted and Moore would need 21,000 of them to overturn the result.  That would be, err, pretty impressive.

Any idea that this is going to get anywhere near a recount is actually pretty laughable.  You've got two main sources of votes left: Military ballots (unlikely to be that many, and I don't think that they'll be particularly strong to Moore) and Provisional votes (which tend to be pretty strongly Democratic) and he needs to find 5,000 votes in order to get an automatic recount which seems hard.  Mr Moore is more than willing to waste money on a recount if he wishes since above 0.5% the candidate has to pay - but I think that after this result he'll find it very hard to raise the money required since, I mean, who's going to waste significant amounts of money on a recount with like a 0.01% chance at best of changing the outcome and I don't think that he's got $2 million left to drop on it himself.  

Maybe this is the fact that I'm posting this at 5am but I think this'll work out like Clinton: a candidate that was 100% sure that they were going to win losing narrowly beginning to talk about recounts and whatever the night of and refusing to concede; and then after a good nights sleep and talking to some people a realisation might come that running this longer might cause more problems than conceding it will and then he'll decide to bow out gracefully.  Especially considering that the Secretary of State didn't seem overly excited about going down the recount route; and with these results that seems fair enough.  I will say one positive thing about Moore: at least he went and spoke to his supporters: sure it was a rambling mess that said nothing but at least it was something.

[Wisconsin+17]

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LOL stay classy, San Diego.

[Illiniwek]

I really hope you do not make fun of my opinion.

Well, you came to the wrong place.

EDIT:
Lol and just like that, she's gone.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

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They had Jones winning by 10% at the same time. What kind of model is that? Mine had a slight Moore lead, but a lead nonetheless and got gradually more confident as time went on.

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Christ. Every other post in the hour before the election was 'pedophile'. You want class? Clean up your own cesspit. Also you had Extreme, me and classic as 'pedophiles' for standing up for Moore.

Whatever you say, Sir One-Note.

I mean...you three were supporting a child molester.  That doesn't make you pedophiles, but it does make you bad people who were willing to be apologists for a child molester.

[Illiniwek]

I am so proud of/for my state!

A sincere congratulations and tip of the cap to you sir!