Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Oryxslayer]

Count is Finished - 100% of Precincts in.

Jones - 670,551 49.9%

Moore - 649,240 48.4%

Write Ins - 22,777 1.7%

21K Margin, 1.5% gap. Probably too high to steal without a heavily concentrated effort. Moore however is not conceding and believes in a recount.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Recount baby. Still TCTC and we won't finish the night before we know the results.

Surprised by the swing though. Only the second time it's swung that much over that much over the course of the night. It's unusual. Usually ballots over 70 percent of the electorate won't swing more than 3 percent. Tonight it did.

I'll have to check my bounds. See if it's better with 3/x vs 2/x. Not sure. Anyways, NYT saying it was Jones +10 was crazy sauce. I was right about Jones being under 50, though.

I don't think the fix is as simple as changing the value of your bounds.  The obvious problem with your model is that it doesn't account for where votes have been counted and where they remain.  In this case, Moore's best areas finished first, leaving the big Jones areas for the end.  This kind of distribution in vote counting is naturally prone to huge swings.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Secretary of State John Merrill says recount not possible and he's not comfortable meeting with Moore camp. Moore still heading to meet him.

[riceowl]

He's at 50!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Moore not conceding continues to show how rotten he is.

[Mike Thick]

Over course of multiple tweets that I can’t link to, Bill Mitchell has suggested that voter fraud is responsible for Jones’s victory. I expect to hear this quite a bit from the fringe right over the next few months

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Count is Finished - 100% of Precincts in.

Jones - 670,551 49.9%

Moore - 649,240 48.4%

Write Ins - 22,777 1.7%

21K Margin, 1.5% gap. Probably too high to steal without a heavily concentrated effort. Moore however is not conceding and believes in a recount.

Juuuust enough write-ins to stick out above Jones' margin.

[Badger]

Count is Finished - 100% of Precincts in.

Jones - 670,551 49.9%

Moore - 649,240 48.4%

Write Ins - 22,777 1.7%

21K Margin. Probably too high to steal without a heavily concentrated effort. Moore however is not conceding and believes in a recount.

I'm hoping after provisionals and the like, Jones will pick up the 1500 some votes to win an outright majority.

[Badger]

From CNN

A source close to the White House says tonight's result is "devastating for the President."

"This is an earthquake," the source said. "It's Virginia but on steroids."

This source put some of the blame on Steve Bannon. "The President has egg on his face," because of Bannon, the source added.

Bannon told Trump if Moore lost, Democrats would feel emboldened to go after the President on sexual harassment issues, this source who is familiar with Bannon's pleas to Trump explained.

"That's why Trump had to do this," the source continued.

"The President invested his political capital and it blew up in his face," the source added

A separate source who advises the White House said "this is bad."

"The RNC and White House political shop must feel uneasy about their futures," this source added.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

The Alabama SoS seems like such a nice guy.

[Reaganfan]

I didn't see any basis for a recount when it looked like Jones won by 10,000 yet alone 20,000+.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Moore not conceding continues to show how rotten he is.

Trump would have done the same thing last November if Hillary had won PA, MI and WI by his margins. He would probably still be insisting it was stolen.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Republicans railed Hillary for asking for a recount in Wisconsin and now they support a hopeless recount?

[junior chįmp]

Rapin' Roy told us before the election that God would choose the winner lol

[Ye We Can]

Recount baby. Still TCTC and we won't finish the night before we know the results.

Surprised by the swing though. Only the second time it's swung that much over that much over the course of the night. It's unusual. Usually ballots over 70 percent of the electorate won't swing more than 3 percent. Tonight it did.

I'll have to check my bounds. See if it's better with 3/x vs 2/x. Not sure. Anyways, NYT saying it was Jones +10 was crazy sauce. I was right about Jones being under 50, though.

The cuck returns to grace us with his terrible opinions

[Illiniwek]

The Alabama SoS seems like such a nice guy.

100%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Alabama SoS seems like such a nice guy.

I feel bad for him. He stated at the beginning he is not comfortable meeting with Moore.

[Yank2133]

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SOP with the Dim's tactics.

When is Franken going to resign?

We're gonna do a recount and keep counting. Just like you guys did to Coleman.

It sure sucks to be you tonight doesn't it?

[Bidenworth2020]

how will provisionals go? not that it will change anything

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

SoS says he expects Jones to be the next senator and Moore overturning results with recount would be unlikely.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I think I remember Ben Kenobi insisting Santorum would win the ID primary in 2012, completely discounting the Romney/Mormon factor.

[DrScholl]

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SOP with the Dim's tactics.

When is Franken going to resign?

We're gonna do a recount and keep counting. Just like you guys did to Coleman.

It's over. Just stop.

[Reaganfan]

Doug Jones won fair and square. No recount needed. Whether Roy Moore concedes or not, Doug Jones has been selected by the people. End of story.

[MAINEiac4434]

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SOP with the Dim's tactics.

When is Franken going to resign?

We're gonna do a recount and keep counting. Just like you guys did to Coleman.

How does it feel to be cucked?

[ProudModerate2]

Recount baby. Still TCTC and we won't finish the night before we know the results.

Surprised by the swing though. Only the second time it's swung that much over that much over the course of the night. It's unusual. Usually ballots over 70 percent of the electorate won't swing more than 3 percent. Tonight it did.

I'll have to check my bounds. See if it's better with 3/x vs 2/x. Not sure. Anyways, NYT saying it was Jones +10 was crazy sauce. I was right about Jones being under 50, though.

You are the 4th bigger loser tonight after Moore, Trump, and Bannon, "baby". You are the statistical equivalent of a quack. You've shrunk from mere hack to outright troll.

On behalf of every likable person here, GTFO.

I second this.