Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[AustralianSwingVoter]

What is NBC doing? How can they still think that it's "Too Close To Call"?

NBC has Finally stopped dragging their feet and has called the race. Finally

[ProudModerate2]

Calling it for Moore.
Moore has won this.

And with that, the troll retreats silently under the bridge, defeated and wounded.
(Terry Sanford)

LOL.
I like that.

[Dr. Arch]

Ben Kenobi fix your model

This.

GLORIOUS RESULTS

[Comrade Funk]

Calling it for Moore.

Moore has won this.

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My model assumes that the swing vote is no greater than 2/x where x is the percentage total number of votes counted*100. I've tested it for countless elections, and it's only once been wrong - the PA election last year calling against Trump.

So in this example, 65 percent of the vote is in.

So 2/65 = 3.07. That added to Jones gives us 45.3 + 3.07 = 48

This is under 50 percent so Jones cannot catch Roy Moore.

Within 2% I won't call until 90 percent is in. The model is less good with really close elections.

I also give it an extra percent before I call the election - a 'fudge factor' if you will so that takes care of the 1% off calls, as in PA for Clinton. I also try to call the 'downswings'. Has to have two sections above the callable point.

At 1/x the candidate has a 'statistical lead' meaning that the other candidate is officially behind.

New meme

[DrScholl]

Looking forward to Roy Moore's concession speech that he didn't prepare for tonight.

I don't think he will concede, much like Allen West didn't.

[SteveRogers]

Faith in humanity restored. Well, 49.6% restored at least. I'll take it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I must admit that I'm looking forward to tomorrow's Trump tweets.

[Virginiá]

Amazing!!!

So when exactly does Jones take office?

[The Dowager Mod]

Meghan McCain‏
Verified account
 
@MeghanMcCain

Suck it, Bannon

HAHAHA!

[Hammy]

What is NBC doing? How can they still think that it's "Too Close To Call"?

Does NBC ever know what they're doing with election coverage?

[cvparty]

looking at alabama in dark blue on the 270towin senate map now is just so funny

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Trump I would assume is deep into a KFC and ice cream binge, will the results tonight cause him to have a coronary?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Amazing!!!

So when exactly does Jones take office?

The SoS previously said the election probably won't be certified until the first week of January.  Strange will remain in the Senate until then.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Today was a good day. Human decency won and Alabama redeemed itself.

Man I'm exuberant right now!

[Brittain33]

Dominating.

[ProudModerate2]

We need to bump this image for all to see again.
Enjoy.

[emailking]

Now the important thing for Jones - keep the margin  high enough to prevent a recount or other shenanigans. Good chance of hitting a margin high enough, but still too close for comfort.

Even if a recount is triggered, I think it's incredibly unlikely that it could overturn this margin.

[Roronoa D. Law]

This is a win for Alabama. As for the GOP the most worrisome thing is the black turnout compared to the rural white turnout.

[Hammy]

Now the important thing for Jones - keep the margin  high enough to prevent a recount or other shenanigans. Good chance of hitting a margin high enough, but still too close for comfort.

Even if a recount is triggered, I think it's incredibly unlikely that it could overturn this margin.

You sure they won't simply "lose" votes or "find" new ones?

[libertpaulian]

Lesson learned for Democrats tonight:

Leave NO race uncontested next year.  

Oh, and how did that special state house election go in AL?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

God bless Alabama!

[Yank2133]

Ben Kenobi hasn't taking an L like this since the Death Star.

[junior chįmp]

Calling it for Moore.

Moore has won this.

Hopefully this is the death kneel to people following ANYONES models. Their all junk

[ProudModerate2]

Now the important thing for Jones - keep the margin  high enough to prevent a recount or other shenanigans. Good chance of hitting a margin high enough, but still too close for comfort.

Even if a recount is triggered, I think it's incredibly unlikely that it could overturn this margin.

Looks like most of the count yet to report is around the huge city of Birmingham (and a tiny bit around Mobile).
So Jones' lead will only grow more.

[emailking]

Now the important thing for Jones - keep the margin  high enough to prevent a recount or other shenanigans. Good chance of hitting a margin high enough, but still too close for comfort.

Even if a recount is triggered, I think it's incredibly unlikely that it could overturn this margin.

You sure they won't simply "lose" votes or "find" new ones?

That happens in every recount. My knowledge of that was factored into my conclusion.