Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[adrac]

Anyone heard from IceSpear?

[InheritTheWind]

TEACH ME HOW TO DOUGIE AHHHHHHHHH

[AtorBoltox]

IceSpear needs to get out of here.

He'll probably leave the forum for a year again

[HisGrace]

Can we get Bannon to nominate some more retards for us....I'm looking at Dems winning Wyoming in 2018 too

Bannon must be a cuck who loves losing.

[Lord Admirale]

I AM DOUG JONES, DESTROYER OF PEDOPHILES

[OSR stands with Israel]

JONES WINS

[Brittain33]

Great poll!

[Pericles]

"With Jones now having been declared the winner by the AP, it’s hard not to see some parallels between his prospective win in Alabama and the Republican Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts in January 2010, which occurred at similar points in the respective presidencies of Trump and Barack Obama.

Yes, there are a lot of differences: Most notably that Martha Coakley — Brown’s opponent in Massachusetts — was not accused of being a child molester, for example.

But both wins were pretty narrow. And despite extenuating circumstances, neither would probably have occurred if the political winds weren’t blowing strongly — toward Republicans in 2010 and toward Democrats in 2017."-Nate Silver

I told you that Doug would be the Democrat Scott Brown!

[MAINEiac4434]

This is one of the top 10 moments of my life.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Great poll!

Great state!

Alabama #redeemed!

[HisGrace]

I never bought into this whole "muh inelasticity/polarization" nonsense, especially considering that this was a special election.

Also, like I said before, it's not a surprise that the same people who wrote off Jones before today are already declaring him DOA in 2020. Big mistake, but whatever.

Well, I don't think anyone had any reason to be super confident either way. This was obviously going to be very close.

He's going to have a hard time in 2020 unless the GOP nominates another psycho (or Moore again, LOL) although he'll at least get some incumbency advantage and do better than the average Dem in Alabama.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Let's take a moment to realize what's happened here.

The Republican Party has thrown away a safe Senate seat in Alabama, for at least the next three years.  Moreover, it's one that could cost them their majority next year.

Consider the ways this could have been avoided:

Trump could have nominated someone other than Sessions to be Attorney General.

Bentley could have appointed someone other than Strange as a placeholder, which would have avoided the hint of corruption.

Ivey could have left the special election next November instead of moving it up to this year.

Any one of these would have avoided the loss of the seat.  There's a lot of political stupidity at any time.  But it's rare to see such consistently creative stupidity as the GOP committed here.

[jimrtex]

Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.

If someone is put down as inactive, can they still vote?

"Inactive" has nothing to do with active.

If election officials send something to a voter and it is returned, they then have to send a forwardable notice to the voter. The voter can:

(1) Reply, I've moved to another county or state. The election officials in his former location may have responsibility to explain how to re-register, and if it is within the same state, perhaps to automatically do it, or at least send the information on to the new county. But in this case they can be removed from the rolls in their former county, because they can't vote there.
(2) Reply, I'm still here, or perhaps I'm on a work assignment, active duty, at college, etc., but my domicile is unchanged. In this case they remain on the active voter rolls.
(3) Not respond, either because they ignored the postcard, or never received it. They are put on the "inactive" list. If they don't vote for the next two federal elections, they are purged. If they show up to vote, they can vote and are removed from the inactive list.

So an "inactive" voter is one who election officials have lost contact with, and if they are inactive for the next two federal election cycles will be purged. They will be removed from the list for the following reasons:

(1) They make contact, and affirm that they have moved out of the registrars jurisdiction, or are confirmed to have died. Removed from the voter rolls completely.
(2) They make contact, including turning up at the polls and voting. If necessary their registration is updated to a new address, and are put back on the active rolls.
(3) The don't make contact, and don't vote over the next two federal elections. They are purged.

So a "regular voter" might be someone who voted in 2008 and 2012, skipped 2010 and 2014 because they don't vote in "every election", and missed 2016. Maybe their girlfriend kicked them out, and and sent the card back "addressee unknown", and then they later reconciled.

Maybe the voter believes they have intuition about what they were told. If a white election official  told a black voter, it might be interpreted as "I'm Jane Crow, Jim Crow's grandaughter". Or maybe the election judge who is being paid minimum wage will assure the voter that the folks down at "the county" are always messing up like this. Most assuredly if the election judge actually did try to explain the use of the term, they'd be presumed to be making it up.

And it can be useful to push turnout. You can have radio station WBHO or WMLK interviewing a voter, and have someone explain that it is just "Bull Conners" all over again, and tell voters to vote, and don't let "them" deny your right to vote.

[tallguy23]

A great night for decency and morals. This is what happens when you endorse a child f***** for Senate.

Now go to hell Roy Moore.

[ProudModerate2]

With 94% of votes counted, there are a total of approx 21,000 write-in votes.
Jones only leads by about 13,000.
What if those "write-in" would have been for Moore.
We may have had a different story.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

What is NBC doing? How can they still think that it's "Too Close To Call"?

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Thank you Alabama

[MT Treasurer]

Let's take a moment to realize what's happened here.

The Republican Party has thrown away a safe Senate seat in Alabama, for at least the next three years.  Moreover, it's one that could cost them their majority next year.

Consider the ways this could have been avoided:

Trump could have nominated someone other than Sessions to be Attorney General.

Bentley could have appointed someone other than Strange as a placeholder, which would have avoided the hint of corruption.

Ivey could have left the special election next November instead of moving it up to this year.

Any one of these would have avoided the loss of the seat.  There's a lot of political stupidity at any time.  But it's rare to see such consistently creative stupidity as the GOP committed here.

This, so much. Especially Ivey's decision to move the special election up to this year was incredibly stupid. I hate to brag about this, but I called this before.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm glad to be wrong, and I'll be happy to eat SWEET POTATO PIE N A-SHUT MUH MOUTH

[MAINEiac4434]

Calling it for Moore.

Moore has won this.

And with that, the troll retreats silently under the bridge, defeated and wounded.

(Terry Sanford)

[Illiniwek]

Looking forward to Roy Moore's concession speech that he didn't prepare for tonight.

[Holmes]

Ben Kenobi fix your model

[ilikeverin]

Interesting thing I noticed: two of the counties where Jones most overperformed compared to, say, 538's 50/50 map are Tuscaloosa and Lee counties, home of Alabama and Auburn.  Young people turned out, and/or shifted D.

[Angrie]

The Republican Party has thrown away a safe Senate seat in Alabama, for at least the next three years.  Moreover, it's one that could cost them their majority next year.

Let's not get carried away now.

The Republican Party has thrown away a safe Senate seat in Alabama, for at least the next three years.  Moreover, it's one that could cost them their majority next year.

That's better.

[Oryxslayer]

Now the important thing for Jones - keep the margin  high enough to prevent a recount or other shenanigans. Good chance of hitting a margin high enough, but still too close for comfort.